Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, MATT said:

Just to firm up on the overnight EC46 run folks... Most definitely signs of a big improvement coming our way. Later next week and beyond we are seeing increasing signals for High Pressure to dominate for some time, and especially for more Southern parts. I'm not gonna go down to route of potential temps at this stage, but obviously night time frost and fog will become a key player, during the day where any fog lingers it would remain on the chilly side.... During any sunnier moments I would imagine it would feel quite please for the time of year. 

Looking further ahead we perhaps see a trend to less settled conditions, especially towards the NW.. the far South perhaps fairing better, this pattern persists into early December..... Ahhh... Now we are getting into silly season... At thu stage a mixed start with temps around average look the current call, Any significant cold being reserved for scandy and Eastern Europe!! All along way off though just yet, hopefully before much longer that long awaited cold will begin to pay our shores a visit.. 

Enjoy your Weekends and stay safe. 

Definitely Matt.

Longer range ECM ensemble shows lots of oranges and reds in our vicinity now....always a good indication that quieter weather is on the way.


 

[Frosty.]

Last one from me for a while, I’ve reached my daily limit so I can have a well earned break, give my fingers a rest from typing on here!...but the ECM 0z ensemble mean also shows height rises from the south longer term, so a calm and pleasant early November seems to be firming up..anyway, Matt covered it very well so I can’t really add anything else...enjoy your day.

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs 06z is not playing the ECM ball here and i feel a bit deflated by it at day ten

but what is lurking in fl?

too many options on the table if you ask me

i hope the ecm is on the money though.

[Tim Bland]

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I know! i know! i know!,it looks good doesn't it but too many....

lets see what transpires in the next few days.

[LRD]

33 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Definitely Matt.

Longer range ECM ensemble shows lots of oranges and reds in our vicinity now....always a good indication that quieter weather is on the way.


 

Differences between the ECM and GFS suites are huge. I know it's in FI but you'd think there'd be some similarity. You've got to back the ECM over GFS but we shall see. Maybe the GFS is picking something up downstream or in teleconnection signals that ECM isn't or vice versa. Fascinating to see who wins this early 'battle' though

GFS spaghetti not buying into ECM's ideas yet. Although there is a slight bump of higher uppers very early next month

Edited October 23, 2020 by LRD

[Methuselah]

14 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gfs 06z is not playing the ECM ball here and i feel a bit deflated by it at day ten

but what is lurking in fl?

too many options on the table if you ask me

i hope the ecm is on the money though.

Cold rain?

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Cold rain?

No, November Rain

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Cold rain?

Yes Pete,a tame affair but nice to see some WWA being pumped up the pv's backside

certainly the op/control have been toying with this scenario over the last couple of days.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes Pete,a tame affair but nice to see some WWA being pumped up the pv's backside

certainly the op/control have been toying with this scenario over the last couple of days.

Might even lead to something as exciting as (meteorological) MMA, then?

[MP-R]

Some quite incredible charts from both the GFS and the ECM. The GFS certainly takes the more traditionally November route with lows continuing to cross the country until towards the end of the run when they slow down and dip south with a northerly sourced airstream taking over. ECM on the other hand, as pointed out, brings summer heatwave synoptics for the Halloween weekend. Of course, not summery at the surface but certainly very mild or warm in sunshine. Brings back memories of the same weekend in 2015... Just look at those uppers!

  

Unusually, I'd love the ECM solution to transpire just out of interest. Both models show solutions that signify things not quite following the seasonal norm.

[Allseasons-Si]

The control is also gunning for a northerly...

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Definitely Matt.

Longer range ECM ensemble shows lots of oranges and reds in our vicinity now....always a good indication that quieter weather is on the way.


 

Certainly looks that way. Probably cool with time - the centre of a block needs to be some way to our south or east at this time of year to maintain a mild flow.

[jules216]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

Certainly looks that way. Probably cool with time - the centre of a block needs to be some way to our south or east at this time of year to maintain a mild flow.

With access to the ECMWF extended clusters this is a better way to view them. There is a huge spread of solutions on the table yet, but looking at progression from 264 to 360 hours it gets from bad to worse. There absolutely zero indication of any amplified flow by 360 hrs,instead we have a few usual west based NAO scenarios with cuts of low between IE and Iceland or a Scandi/Eurohigh solution with hardly any chance of taping in to any reasonable cold sources and these are hours that supposedly are being advocated by EC 46d as blocked - well blocked from any cold source if I interpret this correctly. According to EC 46d by the 4th week of November we are back in raging +NAO. So unlike typical La Nina Novembers which have a strong Atlantic ridge Sceuro trough anomaly. 

[LRD]

6z GFS ensembles moving towards what ECM has been showing for a few days now for Halloween and a few days beyond

My preference is for any high we may or may not get to set up in such a way where we get some frost and fog but I ain't holding my breath

Edited October 23, 2020 by LRD

[johnholmes]

I suspect any of you looking beyond 240 hours will, as so often happens, be it summer or winter, not get the charts you see at these time scales come anywhere near to T+00. But that is just my opinion but hopefully folk will not get too disappointed and upset over the next months.

[snowking]

2 hours ago, jules216 said:

According to EC 46d by the 4th week of November we are back in raging +NAO. 

 

Are we?

Usual caveats apply in terms of whether such forecasts verify at this range, but to me that looks like more of a tendency towards high pressure/-NAO than towards any sort of raging positive NAO at face value

[Jeremy Shockey]

i got the impression that the EC monthly suggested an anticyclonic signal as we headed further into late Autumn, Perhaps even a Greenland block of sorts,

[Geordiesnow]

Ignoring the detail on the ECM run, the model in the medium to long range does want to suggest the Azores high to ridge in which would bring warmer uppers hence I said November could start on a warm note. 

Before that, plenty of wind and rain although nothing too stormy for the UK as it stands. Should be some decent sunny days also for some Eastern areas especially. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

14 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

i got the impression that the EC monthly suggested an anticyclonic signal as we headed further into late Autumn, Perhaps even a Greenland block of sorts,

Most definitely signs of a more benign scenario taking place as we move towards next weekend. Regarding  a blocked scenario over Greenland towards later November, currently is looking less likely... Heights of around 1005-1010,with low heights over Iceland and a trend to more unsettled conditions and a more Wstly flow being highlighted currently... But as always this is a very long way off and subject to much change, its just a case of spotting potential trends from an early starting point.. Will be interesting to see those extended EC 6 month anomalies come the 5th Of November!! The current ones suggesting a cooler December followed by a less cold Jan and Feb... Hopefully they will decide to make a U turn. 

[damianslaw]

Good to see this thread alive, must be some interest in the models and various options on the cards. Overall theme today appears to be tentative signal of a transition back to something much quieter by months very end and into November which ties in with a number of longer range outputs suggesting anticyclonic conditions may gain the upper hand as we move further into November, building blocks in place, so plausible in my view. Question is whether we see heights stick further south allowing jet to ride over the top, or ridge more strongly over and to the east or even north of UK, strong hints meaning something much drier for all and colder.

[bluearmy]

47 minutes ago, snowking said:

Are we?

Usual caveats apply in terms of whether such forecasts verify at this range, but to me that looks like more of a tendency towards high pressure/-NAO than towards any sort of raging positive NAO at face value

as November drifts towards and into December we are in a + NAO …… not exactly raging but with high heights to our south …….

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

as November drifts towards and into December we are in a + NAO …… not exactly raging but with high heights to our south …….

Now that is a long way off Blue

[snowking]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

as November drifts towards and into December we are in a + NAO …… not exactly raging but with high heights to our south …….

Thanks for clarifying Nick, appreciate the ECM website data only runs out to week 4 in the main, but seemed too be too much of a sudden switch from what was being shown at week 4 to then be a raging +NAO - sounds like back to standard autumnal fare (which is what is probably to be expected at week 5 with a move back towards climatology)

[jules216]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

as November drifts towards and into December we are in a + NAO …… not exactly raging but with high heights to our south …….

Thats what I was refering to.Window for -NAO between 5-20.11 and then back to +NAO at the end of the month. But even that period of potenialy -NAO is lacking low height anomalies to pull down anything reasonably cold which is reflected well with mean 850phPa temperatures never dropping below 0C and that is for a location at 650m.asl in central Europe.That may of course change but I have seen these -NAO EC46d at week 2 and beyond vanish more often then not or transforming to a west based -NAO because heigher heights in Sceuro/western Russia are quasi permanent past 5 winters.What you get is slowly filling trough stuck around UK with no cold to tap feom. I will be happy to be proven wrong of course but no way proper east based -NAO chart will excite me before hour 48h of forecast period. What will come will come,though if we get the snow somehow it will be hard to enjoy it because of basically all round lockdown