Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.

[Tim Bland]

GEM not great either  is it too early to say winters over ..That’s a joke btw..before I get lynched

[Zak M]

We might be looking at a spell of more milder, settled and potentially warm weather again this weekend for a day, if the 12z ICON is to believed. It shows 15-16c in the south, so not too hot, nor too cold. It might get windy and perhaps a bit chilly the further north you go, from a very deep low to the NW of us.

   

Edited October 19, 2020 by Zak M

[Iceaxecrampon]

GFS silly season starting?

12Z - week on Tuesday - were due one sooner or later to blow the cobwebs as the law of averages go.

Also has the Highlands moving to a much colder pattern increasing in altitudal ppn of the right sort.

[Zak M]

If you're looking for some warm charts, then take a look at the 12z ECM. A mild/warm day across most areas tomorrow and this weekend - and it's even suggesting that it will warm up in the middle of next week for the south! The 9c isotherm is visible across some southern parts, so the temperatures should widely hover around the mid-teens. This shows that we can still get warm weather even at the end of October and into November!! 

   

Edited October 19, 2020 by Zak M

[damianslaw]

As is often the norm latter part of October forecast to be very wet windy with atlantic predominating - all very normal.. but alas not very appealing unless you like rain and dreary skies, especially with the clocks going back this Saturday, looks like we will be entering a very dull dismal period with little brightness just to add to the general doom and gloom pervading everything at the moment. We really need the sunshine from now until March to give us a boost and the outlook is not want we want from this perspective. 

 

[mb018538]

9 hours ago, damianslaw said:

As is often the norm latter part of October forecast to be very wet windy with atlantic predominating - all very normal.. but alas not very appealing unless you like rain and dreary skies, especially with the clocks going back this Saturday, looks like we will be entering a very dull dismal period with little brightness just to add to the general doom and gloom pervading everything at the moment. We really need the sunshine from now until March to give us a boost and the outlook is not want we want from this perspective. 

 

Certainly a very disturbed outlook on the cards.



Out to day 10, and you can see deep lows affecting the UK. Temperatures remaining on the mild side for many with W/SW winds dominating the scene.

Big temperature contrasts across the USA (below) really firing up the jet. Very early cold Arctic plunge - if you look at Helena, Montana for example - Saturday sees a maximum of -11c, a low of -17c and snow (temperatures should still be around 10c at this time of year). Meanwhile, summer rolls on in parts of the south with temperatures above 30c still.

[bluearmy]

The generally advertised return to positive AO/NAO by fi gfs over the past week or so seems pretty assured for the back end of October - the ec46 last evening didn’t seem particularly keen to keep it unsettled in our part of the NH through November with surface temps a little below average ...... possibly seasonal for the time of year with some frost and fog ??

Edited October 20, 2020 by bluearmy

[bluearmy]

Worth looking at the ec NH profile differences between day 0 and day 9 ..... guess it’s that time of year! 

[mb018538]

30 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The generally advertised return to positive AO/NAO by fi gfs over the past week or so seems pretty assured for the back end of October - the ec46 last evening didn’t seem particularly keen to keep it unsettled in our part of the NH through November with surface temps a little below average ...... possibly seasonal for the time of year with some frost and fog ??

Ties in with the latest thoughts from the Met too @bluearmy. Looks like we will have to ride out a couple of weeks of unsettled weather before things start to change (perhaps).

Tuesday 3 Nov - Tuesday 17 Nov

Confidence is low for this period, but the generally unsettled wet and windy theme is expected to gradually transition to a more settled picture through early November, especially in the south of the UK. Elsewhere, showery and windier conditions may remain more prevalent in the north. Temperatures may dip slightly below normal in the more settled periods, allowing for an increasing likelihood of overnight frost and fog developing#

The change in weather patterns really driving a strengthening PV, which goes well above average into November:


 

 

 

Edited October 20, 2020 by mb018538

[Mr Frost]

Morning all

Hope you are all well.

I wonder if we are going to see a repeat of last October and November with two below average months in Autumn.

2019:

 

Current outlook gives us a decent chance.

Latest ECM updated monthly temperature (T2m) Anomalies: 26/10 to 01/11

 

Outlook for November: Monthly temperature (T2m) Anomalies: 02/11 to 28/11.

Weekly breakdown:

Looks a fairly dry month as well for the majority of the UK and Ireland - snapshot for 23/11 to 29/11:

 

Link below to all the above charts:

https://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/monthly-forecast/

As others have said above - looks promising if sunshine, fog, frost and cool days are what you look for in November! 

Personally I will take a repeat of last November - most of the month delivered all those things above! 

Current outlook up here - standard October stuff.

 

I certainly agree with many other members across the forum - absolute borefest of a month so far! Give me a named storm or some lovely sunny and frosty weather at this time of year.

All the best to you all. 

[Iceaxecrampon]

21 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Morning all

Hope you are all well.

I wonder if we are going to see a repeat of last October and November with two below average months in Autumn.

2019:

 

Current outlook gives us a decent chance.

Latest ECM updated monthly temperature (T2m) Anomalies: 26/10 to 01/11

 

Outlook for November: Monthly temperature (T2m) Anomalies: 02/11 to 28/11.

Weekly breakdown:

Looks a fairly dry month as well for the majority of the UK and Ireland - snapshot for 23/11 to 29/11:

 

Link below to all the above charts:

https://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/monthly-forecast/

As others have said above - looks promising if sunshine, fog, frost and cool days are what you look for in November! 

Personally I will take a repeat of last November - most of the month delivered all those things above! 

Current outlook up here - standard October stuff.

 

I certainly agree with many other members across the forum - absolute borefest of a month so far! Give me a named storm or some lovely sunny and frosty weather at this time of year.

All the best to you all. 

GFS has gusts winding up for Skye this weekend.

Failing that there is maybe a 980mb on it's way next Tuesday - Wednesday.

[johnholmes]

If the 500 mb anomalies are anywhere near the mark then we have 2 weeks of a very strong flow across the Atlantic and the probability of pretty deep surface features affecting the UK from time to time.

No charts but those shown yesterday give the flavour!

[Paul_1978]

15 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Collies look away

Border collies?

[ChannelThunder]

Those are some tasty looking lows next week on both ECM and GFS. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 16/10/2020 at 12:55, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Just a few ensembles to highlight the pattern I think is worth looking out for 

hurricane - Florida (some actually hint at another tropical system in the atlantic) 

scandi high 

last one the higher pressure develops bit north of scandi but still same general idea.

 

Fair few of the GEFS keen on the idea of trying to get the higher pressure developing in or around Scandi as I mentioned in a previous post linking with phase 5 of the MJO perhaps just a slight bit of patience required, before that worth keeping an eye on tropical storm Epsilon it could interact with lows developing around Greenland as it (possibly) heads towards the UK.

[Iceaxecrampon]

06Z Has higher intensity for next Tuesday.

Plenty of Red.

 

[booferking]

54 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Fair few of the GEFS keen on the idea of trying to get the higher pressure developing in or around Scandi as I mentioned in a previous post linking with phase 5 of the MJO perhaps just a slight bit of patience required, before that worth keeping an eye on tropical storm Epsilon it could interact with lows developing around Greenland as it (possibly) heads towards the UK.

And the GEFS keen to take us through  phases 6&7 as we head into Nov always good for blocking images taking from twitter.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=11&ech=384

Starting to see a response as we head towards Nov in the charts ties in with some long range models..

 

 

 

[Liam J]

Potentially very stormy next week after a windy weekend. GFS 6z showing two intense storms just two days apart, one of which will will be the remnants of soon to be Hurricane Epsilon as a powerful extratropical storm. Still a week away though. 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

2 hours ago, DisruptiveGust said:

Potentially very stormy next week after a windy weekend. GFS 6z showing two intense storms just two days apart, one of which will will be the remnants of soon to be Hurricane Epsilon as a powerful extratropical storm. Still a week away though. 

I really do hope so. Most likely though, the models will change and we will end up getting boring high pressure instead. Still, we shall have to wait and see! 

Edited October 20, 2020 by Weather Enthusiast91

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

I really do hope so. Most likely though, the models will change and we will end up getting boring high pressure instead. Still, we shall have to wait and see! 

err no hardly

[mb018538]

Is there anything more depressing than keeping on seeing variations of this chart for the next 4 months? Greenland and Iceland low, and a great big Euro high out east that doesn’t move. Wind and rain day after day for the UK. Errrgghhhh

[swfc]

15 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Is there anything more depressing than keeping on seeing variations of this chart for the next 4 months? Greenland and Iceland low, and a great big Euro high out east that doesn’t move. Wind and rain day after day for the UK. Errrgghhhh

I'd agree. Altho only October the recurring theme does seem to be on. Spoke to Paul Hudson bbc weather man on twitter and he did point to a very windy unsettled outlook threw November. All subject to change as ever but the insipid heights to the sse are rearing there  head in the output

Edited October 20, 2020 by swfc

[Zak M]

Looking at the 12z GEM, it looks to be following the path of the 12z ECM last night, with brief settled and unsettled periods. It's also showing a potential warm up for the south-west, and the potential for a cold shot in the north as part of the jet dives SE. But that's in FI, so who knows what will happen... it also has a 920mb low for next week... blimey!

      

[Zak M]

The 12z ECM screams warmth, warmth... and more warmth!!! 

      

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

The 12z ECM screams warmth, warmth... and more warmth!!! 

      

Aye, definitely chances of warm days increases now, with the Atlantic dominating, unlike late Sept/early Oct, could feel decent if mild sectors last say for a day