Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.

[mb018538]

Phillippe Papin tweet - currently 7 (yes seven!) areas of interest in the Atlantic at the moment. Ridiculous. Never seen it so active.

[Frosty.]

This is very impressive from the GEFS 6z mean early next week, a real return to summer-like conditions as we develop a very warm / hot & humid southerly draw, potential for low 30’s c across the SE and probably some thundery activity too as I mentioned yesterday...and even after the main heat subsides it stays warm next week with temps considerably above average further S / E..and with heights to the NE / E....to be honest it looks blocked to me and I don’t see much sign that the Atlantic would come crashing through for a good while!!!..

 

Edited September 10, 2020 by Jon Snow

[Man With Beard]

UKMO T144 ... No breakdown by next Wednesday. Looks hot.

[sheikhy]

5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

UKMO T144 ... No breakdown by next Wednesday. Looks hot.

Absolutely stunning!!theres ths first of the upgrades!!hopefully gfs 12 improves from the 06z!!

[Faronstream]

GFS 12Z shows back to reality with low pressure dominating after mid next week.

Edited September 10, 2020 by Faronstream

[sheikhy]

Yup gfs 12z no good!!actually gone backwards on the 12z!!!ah well over to the ecm!!we know ecm and ukmo normally do better with cut off lows so i side with the ukmo at the moment!

[cheshire snow]

27 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

UKMO T144 ... No breakdown by next Wednesday. Looks hot.

Very similar to the lunchtime forecast on the BBC 26c Northern England with 30c showing for the Capital.

C.S

[mb018538]

52 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

UKMO T144 ... No breakdown by next Wednesday. Looks hot.

850s down from 16c on Monday and Tuesday to 12c in Wednesday though - perhaps a few degrees down. 25/26c instead of 29/30c? Either way mighty good for mid September!

[Mark wheeler]

Will hopefully post a stunning Navgem later but just saw this . Wahoo , GFS and especially UKMo look even better . 

[Mark wheeler]

Not a bad Ecm so far again . 

[Mark wheeler]

Really like the look of the Navgem tonight . Nice 12zs although Ecm later on get that low in closer and deeper. 

[sheikhy]

Brilliant ecm!!are we about to see the beginnings of a strong scandi high going into the latter part of september?anyone got precipitation charts for ecm?

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Faronstream said:

GFS 12Z shows back to reality with low pressure dominating after mid next week.

One to watch but thankfully the ensembles don't fully support the low pressure fest from the 12z op...

[Man With Beard]

Missed this earlier - the ARPEGE 12Z going for 30C on Monday 

The ECM has Tuesday 2 or 3 degrees higher than Monday, and maintains high maximums through to Thursday.

It's a heatwave folks!

Edited September 10, 2020 by Man With Beard

[I remember Atlantic 252]

27 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Really like the look of the Navgem tonight . Nice 12zs although Ecm later on get that low in closer and deeper. 

rubbish model!

[Frosty.]

Most of the ECM 12z operational is FANTASTIC if you’re a fan of very warm / hot sunny weather, the uppers (850’s) are stunning for mid September, off the scale..if we are comparing like for like, this run is much warmer, for much longer than last nights ECM 12z. I would expect there would be some thunderstorms around next week too!!

 

[sheikhy]

19 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Missed this earlier - the ARPEGE 12Z going for 30C on Monday 

The ECM has Tuesday 2 or 3 degrees higher than Monday, and maintains high maximums through to Thursday.

It's a heatwave folks!

Any meaningfull rainfall from ecm mate?

[Allseasons-Si]

17 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

rubbish model!

To be fair 252,it has every chance of verifying at 96 hrs just as much as any other model

this warm/hot spell looks nailed on now next week but for how long and maybe a few surprises/thunderstorms thrown in for good measure 

latest cpc for 6-10 days,the is quiet a strong hp cell to our N/NE.

Just to add,the ecm mean NH view

 

looks good to me.

Edited September 10, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Mark wheeler]

50 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

To be fair 252,it has every chance of verifying at 96 hrs just as much as any other model

this warm/hot spell looks nailed on now next week but for how long and maybe a few surprises/thunderstorms thrown in for good measure 

latest cpc for 6-10 days,the is quiet a strong hp cell to our N/NE.

Just to add,the ecm mean NH view

 

looks good to me.

Just really hoping we hit 30c so we make it in consecutive months . I’ll keep posting the Navgem as I’ve noticed that those uppers forecasted are much more inline since just before the last hot spell , I do post it for entertainment value but it is after all a model and output it is so worthy of discussion

Ps , I’m aware Navgem hasn’t got the verification stats of others  a clock is right twice a day though so it will have its day 

Edited September 10, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Missed this earlier - the ARPEGE 12Z going for 30C on Monday 

The ECM has Tuesday 2 or 3 degrees higher than Monday, and maintains high maximums through to Thursday.

It's a heatwave folks!

I always find the ARPEGE a bit low for places away from the South East- it was the case in the August heatwave as well, for us in NW England at least.

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

Any meaningfull rainfall from ecm mate?

Apart from Scotland, no meaningful rain until next Saturday, and not a lot for central/eastern areas even then.

However i wouldn't be surprised if a couple of last minute thunderstorms pop up?

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

To be fair 252,it has every chance of verifying at 96 hrs just as much as any other model

this warm/hot spell looks nailed on now next week but for how long and maybe a few surprises/thunderstorms thrown in for good measure 

latest cpc for 6-10 days,the is quiet a strong hp cell to our N/NE.

Just to add,the ecm mean NH view

 

looks good to me.

The above chart has an inpossible increase in heights, in excess of 100 DM in 24 hours. Impossible I would say!

[SMU]

First autumnal cold shot into Scandi at day 7 on the ECM 

Edited September 10, 2020 by Steve Murr

[Jordan S]

While its looking mostly dry for most this weekend much of western Scotland will see significant rainfall. 

Tomorrow's rain and frequent persistent showers on saturday likely to give 40-60mm in a few places here. 

Then for saturday night into sunday a spell of prolonged heavy rain will effect western Scotland which could get as  much as 80-120mm from this low pressure system with 140-160mm likely on hills altogether including fridays rainfall and a small chance of locally 160-180mm altogether. 20-40mm locally in southern Scotland and northern Ireland is possible aswell. 

7pm Saturday.. 

7am sunday.. 

1am Monday.. 

Through Monday it turns drier for this area. Monday and Tuesday sure is looking very warm even quite hot for the South as southerly winds move in with 28-31c quite likely in a few places but probably cooler for the rest of the week..

Edited September 10, 2020 by jordan smith

[Mike Poole]

ECM ensemble mean looking sound, here T144 and T240:

I’m late to viewing the other models but all is good, I think for a fairly common setup in September with a return of summer, so that’s all good.  JMA T192 also supports this: