South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[Eagle Eye]

 

3 Hourly prediction

4pm

7Pm

10PM

At areas if it goes below 0oc I don't expect there to be constant Snow more Sleet that is on and off if the Jet Stream has a more Eastward shift at the moment it's much Weaker towards us. 

[Polaris]

Raining turned moderate here and everywhere soaked again. 
 

Best of luck those south of London tomorrow. Hopefully coming in at night will up the chances. 
Chances for northern Home Counties has vanished but if there is no more southerly corrections then areas south of London are ok providing PPN is heavy enough. 
 

Anymore diving south of the front will give snizzle/drizzle at best with cold grey skies. 

[Paul Sherman]

We shall see Daniel but having lived here 50 years and been through 1978/79 the early 80s the amazing winters of 85/86 and 87 along with Feb 1991 I can assure you I know a fair bit about winds and set ups from the North East so will stick to my opinion thanks all the same and there is a paper somewhere hidden on the forum about the 1st and 2nd Feb 2009 Beast which is worth a read if you can find it. 

But it's nice to have differing opinions going forward and would love to be proven wrong 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Paul Sherman

[kold weather]

Just taken a deep dive through most of the models and ensembles (35 ARPEGE, 30 GFS, 50 ECM, plus all the high resolution models) that we have access to and again only backs up my viewpoint that there is a heap of uncertainty regarding Wednesday. I can see why the Met office has kept the warnings up for now.

The models may well yet shift north or south and there is enough within the ensembles suggest that this is possible. I'd say though purely based on the ensemble weighting the more numerically likely option is a shift somewhat to the north. Maybe not hugely, but more likely than any adjustment to the south.

However its likely to end up being a nowcast situation anyway.

Edited December 29, 2020 by kold weather

[Dami]

well MetO has me down for sleet turning to light snow. The only forecast that shows this, even alexa isn't on board,

I've had light 'something' the bin lid and ground are damp. 

[yamkin]

I am getting excited, but will get even more excited if the models continue to show the goodies

[Eagle Eye]

Certainly not expecting the World's greatest but this is the UK we get excited at Sleet, most likely will Snow within the next Week or so. 

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, lewis028 said:

I’m sure a 13c temperature difference is good enough to form a streamer/showers & any higher than that then the more convective and better it forms. 

I don't think it's that cut-and-dried, lewis... Way back in late March/early April 2013, there was a 'spat' on here as to whether -10C Uppers, from the Northeast @1032hPa and with 5-6C SSTs would , or would not, result in an explosion of heavy snow showers, coming off the North Sea... Although I cannae recall the outcome, I think it's clear to say that these things are not necessarily as clear-cut as they seem?

PS: Having nae seen any lying snow since March 2018, I'm truly, truly DESPERATE!

[Southender]

10 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

We shall see Daniel but having lived here 50 years and been through 1978/79 the early 80s the amazing winters of 85/86 and 87 along with Feb 1991 I can assure you I know a fair bit about winds and set ups from the North East so will stick to my opinion thanks all the same and there is a paper somewhere hidden on the forum about the 1st and 2nd Feb 2009 Beast which is worth a read if you can find it. 

But it's nice to have differing opinions going forward and would love to be proven wrong 

Feb 2009... *shudders*

[lassie23]

It's a cool spell at the moment rather than cold

[kold weather]

17 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

We shall see Daniel but having lived here 50 years and been through 1978/79 the early 80s the amazing winters of 85/86 and 87 along with Feb 1991 I can assure you I know a fair bit about winds and set ups from the North East so will stick to my opinion thanks all the same and there is a paper somewhere hidden on the forum about the 1st and 2nd Feb 2009 Beast which is worth a read if you can find it. 

Its pretty borderline looking to me, the 850hpa temps are pretty tame it has to be said...however to be fair to Daniel SST's are higher than they would have been back in the 80s, so it may well be we don't need to go quite as cold to spark convection (though on its own its not all that impressive I admit). Less certainty but there does look like there is some weak wave action in the north sea that may help to create some instability in its own right, something the ensembles have been hinting at. Put the two together and I suspect there will be convection around.

My bigger concern would potentially be the air just isn't cold enough. It looks to me like a wintry mix type set-up, where heavier precip turns to snow, but as soon as it eases back to sleet/rain. any settling snow probably for higher ground or overnight.

The airflow as modeled reminds me of the Feb 2006 spell, plenty of falling snow but little in the way of accumulation apart from any overnight stuff.

Edited December 29, 2020 by kold weather

[Polaris]

2 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

Certainly not expecting the World's greatest but this is the UK we get excited at Sleet, most likely will Snow within the next Week or so. 

Ha. Brilliant 

Was thinking today that the snowfall the U.K. has had past few days wouldn’t even get a mention in America/Canada/North Japan etc 

But its breaking news here. 
you have to laugh. 

[Paul Sherman]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Its pretty borderline looking to me, the 850hpa temps are pretty tame it has to be said...however to be fair to Daniel SST's are higher than they would have been back in the 80s, so it may well be we don't need to go quite as cold to spark convection (though on its own its not all that impressive I admit). Less certainty but there does look like there is some weak wave action in the north sea that may help to create some instability in its own right, something the ensembles have been hinting at. Put the two together and I suspect there will be convection around.

My bigger concern would potentially be the air just isn't cold enough. It looks to me like a wintry mix type set-up, where heavier precip turns to snow, but as soon as it eases back to sleet/rain. any settling snow probably for higher ground or overnight.

The airflow as modeled reminds me of the Feb 2006 spell, plenty of falling snow but little in the way of accumulation apart from any overnight stuff.

Darren 

Yes actually Feb 2006 is a great analogy

In fact in those 28 days we had falling snow on 19 of the days but biggest accumulation was 2cm and by the start of March it was all gone 

[Daniel*]

Lol Paul time will tell I’m not suggesting picture is snow apocalypse but evidently best potential to date there imo the coasts like where you are will probably struggle for settling snow. The North Sea is unpredictable that’s what I’ve learnt over years, sometimes you can have very cold uppers and nothing. Many times I’ve seen a lot of promise fail to deliver so I suppose it is good in that expectations are low.

[Polaris]

Rain getting a little heavier now. What a shame if was just a couple degrees colder could have been snow 

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Darren 

Yes actually Feb 2006 is a great analogy

In fact in those 28 days we had falling snow on 19 of the days but biggest accumulation was 2cm and by the start of March it was all gone 

Irs a poor analogy imo.. lol solar input is much lower now than late February.

[kold weather]

I'd not be looking beyond tomorrow anyway yet to be perfectly honest.

Just to give you an idea on the ensembles just how much uncertainty there still is, here is two runs from the ARPEGE ensembles. I could find similar extremes from the ECM and the GFS ensembles as well:

Yes on that second one its down in CENTRAL FRANCE.

This is just 36hrs out and there is still a very wide range of option.

Hopefully the 12z runs will firm up a little more, gotta hope in a positive way.

[Southender]

Yes I know it’s the METO app but I just had a butchers at the progged radar grab for early hours tomorrow. They have the system clipping SW Ireland. For those of us further north we want to be seeing that enter around Galway and tracking through more central areas of Ireland, to put us in the picture. Let’s see if any further adjustments are made this evening.

[Hammer]

11 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Ha. Brilliant 

Was thinking today that the snowfall the U.K. has had past few days wouldn’t even get a mention in America/Canada/North Japan etc 

But its breaking news here. 
you have to laugh. 

Those countries (or significant parts of them) are well known to have much more suitable conditions for snow. It is pretty obvious to anyone with even a basic knowledge the Atlantic, Gulf Stream and Jet Stream influences our weather a great deal.

So try not to beat up our little old country stuck in the ocean to much.

 

[Paul Sherman]

15 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Irs a poor analogy imo.. lol solar input is much lower now than late February.

Sorry not getting you at all - You know how Convection works with higher Solar Input - If you were on these boards in 2006 you would have seen in these threads the excitement at huge towering Cbs with possible Thundersnow due to the Sun being stronger making stronger Snow Showers heading into the SE over a 3 week period but end result was slack flow and poor Uppers creating wishy washy 10 minute snow showers. Hence the observation of 19 days out of the 28 containing snow falling from the sky.

So again I dont get your point at next week being better than Feb 2006 - If you can explain it am all ears as this is Interesting

Edit : Or do you mean the snow has a better chance of sticking around on the ground re the time of year

Edited December 29, 2020 by Paul Sherman

[all weather]

Like the snowfall in Gloucester the other day. People advised to only go out for essentials. Cracks me up. 1 inch of snow lol

[Dami]

31 minutes ago, Dami said:

well MetO has me down for sleet turning to light snow. The only forecast that shows this, even alexa isn't on board,

I've had light 'something' the bin lid and ground are damp. 

don't panic, it's now turned to just overcast 

[Eagle Eye]

Quick radar grab and you can see with that band of Showers to our South that the bigger System to our West will change direction in the Channel a known cooler in the Summer could also do us a favour here and Cool Down the System as it Pushes North to be A Kent Clipper bringing spells of possibly even Snow depending on When it happens. 

 

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

Quick radar grab and you can see with that band of Showers to our South that the bigger System to our West will change direction in the Channel a known cooler in the Summer could also do us a favour here and Cool Down the System as it Pushes North to be A Kent Clipper bringing spells of possibly even Snow depending on When it happens. 

 

Are you predicting that we could get snow today?

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Are you predicting that we could get snow today?

Possibly later on if Temperatures fall more than expected. Most likely Sleet though I believe reverse phycology works if not then Be Happy with sleet. 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Sheldon Cooper