South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[Blessed Weather]

Quite a bit of flooding around my location and the local river (Brett) has burst its banks in several places. And South Suffolk saw nowhere near the largest rainfall totals yesterday, with just 9mm imby. The flooding just goes to show how saturated the ground is. Here's yesterday's totals calculated by the Netweather Extra Radar:

[Captain Shortwave]

50-60mm recorded around here yesterday. We could really do without any more significant rain for the foreseeable. It looks likely that there won’t be too much over the coming week, though there will be an active cold front moving south east on Saturday night that brings the colder and potentially snowier weather as we approach the new year.

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

Well it's been a tad windy here in S.E. London, overnight. A sign of things to come in a couple of Days? 

Sammy Snowman would now like to present his 8th Blog of - COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN.

We are now entering Christmas Day, at t24.

Sammy will illustrate his findings with some charts, from the 00z Model runs.

Both himself and Girlfriend Samantha, have now spent 4 Nights at their Ice Hotel, in the Ski Resort of Levi, Lapland:

Sammy will illustrate his findings with some charts, from the 00z Model runs.

ECM 500 hPa 00z (t24) 25th December         GFS 500 hPa 00z (t24) 25th December

                

As you'd expect, at such close range, both the European and American Models are in agreement, regarding the Synoptic outlook, as we enter Christmas Day.

Areas of High Pressure are located to the W.S.W. of the U.K., with another centre on the Southern tip of Newfoundland.

The Eastern most centre (close to the U.K.), is "throwing" a Ridge N.E. into the Norwegian Sea. Another Ridge can be seen, emanating from an area of High Pressure, over the Arctic Sea. This is being "thrown" S.W., and "sits" over the extreme North of Scandinavia.

An area of Low Pressure is located close to the S.E. Coast of Greenland, with a more shallow feature to be found over Belarus/Latvia/Lithuania. A lobe of the Polar Vortex, can be seen over the extreme N.W. of Greenland.

ECM 850 hPa 00z (t24) 25th December         GFS 850 hPa 00z (t24) 25th December

                

Upper Air (850 hPa) temperatures are around -6c/-7c, for the whole of the S,E. Region.

   GFS Temps 00z (t24) 25th December         GFS Ppn Type 00z (t24) 25th December

                

Temperatures are close to 0c in the West of the Region but as high as around 4c, in the East.

The American Model (G.F.S.), is still "banging the drum", for some light, Wintry Showers in the extreme North and East of the Region, namely North Norfolk and East Kent. But these will soon peter out and move into the North Sea, during the Afternoon.

 GFS 850 hPa Stream lines 00z (t24) 25th December 

               

The wind flow has a Northerly component for the whole of the S.E. Region, very slight in the West of the Region but much more noticeable in the East, especially over East Kent.

In a short while, Sammy Snowman will return to summarise his findings, after the 00z overnight Model runs.

Regards,

Tom.    

[Tom Quintavalle]

After the 00z Model runs at t24, Sammy Snowman's feelings about the prospects of a White Christmas, for our Region, can be described as follows:

QUE SERA, SERA - (10% - 19% PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 9/1 to 19/5.

                                  

As he was on Tuesday Morning, Sammy is feeling pretty nonchalant about prospects for a White Christmas, in the S.E. Region.

He can afford to be, with deep Snow cover and temperatures around -10c/-11c,, where himself and girlfriend, Samantha are staying!!

Today, Sammy has arranged a romantic Sleigh ride for himself and Samantha -

  

 But I'm sure it will be more sturdy than this, with a couple of Reindeer, pulling them.

Sammy Snowman agrees with Santa Shaker, a very low chance of a White Christmas for the vast majority of  our Region. But a definite chance of seeing a few flakes, in the extreme North and East of the Region.

But I wouldn't crack open the frozen Champagne or dust down your Sledges.

In those parts of the Region, lucky enough to see a few flakes, it probably won't be enough to make a Snowball, let alone a replica of Sammy Snowman.

Sammy has decided to pop into the Thread Tomorrow Morning, to present his very final Blog (9th), in -                                  COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN, and to wish all S.E. Members, a Merry Christmas.

Regards,

Tom.    

Edited December 24, 2020 by TomSE12

[LightningLover]

ICON’s take on Storm Bella... Blimey! High 70s/low 80mph wind gusts being shown in the channel and along the immediate coastline  

[Blazerblue]

Heavy showers so far not looking like stopping all day, we really can’t take any more rain, many roads impassable here now, gonna be cut off by tomorrow morning

[snowblind]

Temperature has been falling since midday yesterday when it was 12.2, now down to 3. Mostly sunny and windy.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Hi to all u SE guys and girls thought I would pop in looks like a chance of some flakes for a trough and colder air, don’t take the timing or positioning exact best thing will be to keep checking the radar but best of luck to all and whilst I’m here I will wish you all a Merry Christmas  

[MAF]

Amber warnings for the South UK for the weekend. Storm Bella will bring gusts 50 - 70 mph  

Can't remember the last time we had an Xmas storm like the one due. Hopefully everyone stays safe. 

[Blazerblue]

Yep yellow warnings for ice tomorrow morning, then for wind Saturday/Sunday! If the snow does materialise it will just mix with the lakes (sorry puddles) and disappear  

Edited December 24, 2020 by Blazerblue

[NewEra21]

Everywhere really is like a soggy bog. Ideally I would have been happy with high pressure slap bang over top of us for this Christmas week up until new year, with some nice frosty but sunny weather. As everywhere just needs a chance to dry out.

The problem currently is, even if we do get very lucky and see snow next week. Everywhere is just so wet under foot and the temperatures next week won't be cold enough to freeze the ground at all. It's just going to be one big mess.

Really hope we can see a proper beast from the east at some point in the new year. As that brings true cold and none of this marginal wet stuff. 

Hopefully that didn't come across as too much of a grinch post but I hope everyone has a happy and safe Christmas! 

Edited December 24, 2020 by NewEra21

[Blazerblue]

Excellent, now we have.....hail! 

[Met4Cast]

Incoming..

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Had a couple of light rain showers move through, otherwise sunny and chilly. The bigger talking point is the extent of the flooding. The a14 west of Huntingdon has been closed all day because of this and local racecourse is currently several feet underwater. 

[Delka]

heavy sleet on and off today but temperatures slightly too high for anything snowy here.

have a very merry christmas everyone!

[Daniel*]

Merry Christmas to everyone

Radar quite interesting showers merging into longer spells of rain, sleet and snow turning increasingly wintry overnight.... could a few of us wake up to a white one... 

 

Edited December 24, 2020 by Daniel*

[jamesgold]

Sorry if I’ve missed it further up, does anyone think SE London is in with a shot of a flake or two later on? It showed up on some of those charts, but is that still possible?

[Dami]

Although it's a different year this year, managed to do our Christmas eve traditions, bar being up at 6am to collect our turkey because that came to us this year - and had a fun day of Christmas music, baking and slipping into Christmas PJ's ready for our Fish and chip tea followed by a film, popcorn and a cheeky glass of something for mummy and a special hot choc with cream and marshmallows for my daughter. 

Clear and sunny although we got some cloud and it does feel a bot cooler, a little snow would of been awesome.

Actually not windy at the moment, had many Christmas eves sorting stuff out and been blown from here to kingdom come.

Wishing everyone Happy Christmas 

 

[John Stevens]

Merry Christmas one and all! I hope you all stay safe and eat, drink and be merry!! With any luck some of the white stuff will fall in the coming days!

[Blessed Weather]

And a Merry Christmas from me too. Stay safe and have a lovely, relaxing time. I wonder if Santa will bring me the snow I've asked for.

[Snow Queen one]

Merry Christmas everybody.  Maybe Sacra will be opening its doors in Jan for us in SE stay safe. 

[stainesbloke]

OH and I arrived here on Friday night. Then everything turned to so you can all blame me Been very wet and vile generally but nice and sunny today, chilly wind though. Hoping to get home on the 29th but flights all gone to too, so who knows Anyway, maybe we’ll see some of the white stuff over the next few days, if we’re lucky. A very Merry and safe Christmas to you all

[bluebell]

Happy Christmas to all on this regional thread! Wishing you a peaceful and joyful New Year. Bottoms up for a snow filled 2020 

[Methuselah]

A merry Christmas from me, and a merry Christmas from him!

[SMU]

Happy crimbo

 

Very seasonal here. 1.9c currently.