South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[snowrye]

I can report from my flat, in northiam sussex, 70masl, I have a slight smattering of the good stuff here, and I do mean slight, back to bed lol

[Kentspur]

Upgrades to the depth of the cold spell and possible wintry shower potential even as early as this Sunday, as well as through next week on both latest GFS and Icon

Todays latest GFS 0z for Sunday evening vs below yesterdays 18z.

Notice the hashed lines over Kent this latest run and much more over the North Sea. Also the upper air temps to our east where the wind will be passing over from is considerably colder with minus8c pockets already around Northern France Belgium and the Netherlands? Could this make the difference a sleet shower being more "flakey" rather than just the wet stuff

Edited December 31, 2020 by Kentspur

[Sparky68]

-2 and another good ground frost , drive safe those that have to.

[andreas]

The first air frost in this part of Crystal Palace in the whole of 2020 - a minimum of -0.5. the lowest since February 2019. 

[Biggin]

5 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Got -4 on the car jail lane. 1130

Biggin Hill ?

[Paul Sherman]

Lovely White Morning with temps of -2c so getting that Cold into the Ground is starting to go as planned here - Phew

A word on the Models and a bit of fun

Models Days 1-6 :- Currently No Snow Seen and travel conditions fine

Models Days 9-10 :- Still Snowed in after another Blizzard Hits 

In other Words All Models once again showing amazing charts at Day 10 again this morning.

Brief Round up of the 00z Models overnight and the Risk for Snow From the East on Monday 4th Jan 2021

All 5 Models I have used currently showing Rain still so our Snow Risk for Monday is currently at 0%

[Daniel*]

Very cold morning it could have been even colder if cloud didn’t come coldest temps were seen around 2am. Benson fell to -6.2C and Heathrow -3.2C. Here in inner London fell to -1.7C current temp despite cloud! 

Edited December 31, 2020 by Daniel*

[Southender]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Lovely White Morning with temps of -2c so getting that Cold into the Ground is starting to go as planned here - Phew

A word on the Models and a bit of fun

Models Days 1-6 :- Currently No Snow Seen and travel conditions fine

Models Days 9-10 :- Still Snowed in after another Blizzard Hits 

In other Words All Models once again showing amazing charts at Day 10 again this morning.

Brief Round up of the 00z Models overnight and the Risk for Snow From the East on Monday 4th Jan 2021

All 5 Models I have used currently showing Rain still so our Snow Risk for Monday is currently at 0%

Hurrah eh Paul. First proper frost of the winter.

Been looking at that low swinging in from the E/SE early part of next week. Looks like it originates from around Italy so massively modified. Looks like rain on GFS with uppers and dews non-conducive for snow. But all we can do is hope...

[Paul Sherman]

2 minutes ago, Southender said:

Hurrah eh Paul. First proper frost of the winter.

Been looking at that low swinging in from the E/SE early part of next week. Looks like it originates from around Italy so massively modified. Looks like rain on GFS with uppers and dews non-conducive for snow. But all we can do is hope...

Yh cant wait lol

Will be adding Tuesday, Wednesday etc etc as we head into the weekend so lets see if things improve over the next few days.

Lots of Basil Brush posts going on in the Model Thread again for T240 - BOOOOM BOOM 

[Southender]

7 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Yh cant wait lol

Will be adding Tuesday, Wednesday etc etc as we head into the weekend so lets see if things improve over the next few days.

Lots of Basil Brush posts going on in the Model Thread again for T240 - BOOOOM BOOM 

The phrase Day 10 should be banned. Same old story. I do however think we will get our rewards eventually. But it’s going to be a long and painful wait with more disappointments to get through first. I’d happily take a week-10 days of these conditions though IF it delivers in the end. As we both know, the more historic winters past have almost always been slow burners. Let’s hope this is another...

Edited December 31, 2020 by Southender

[Number 23]

At least it feels like winter now. 

The grass is white ish; the cat gave me a b****cking for leaving him in the garden too long; I keep finding the thermostat mysteriously cranked up to 400 degrees...

All signs of a classic winter spell, and this is all happening at T-0 people can you believe it?! 

 

[dallas]

It seems the hardest mixture for us, is to get cold and pcp at the same time, we need a proper heavy easterly for our corner of the country

[abruzzi spartan]

11 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Yh cant wait lol

Will be adding Tuesday, Wednesday etc etc as we head into the weekend so lets see if things improve over the next few days.

Lots of Basil Brush posts going on in the Model Thread again for T240 - BOOOOM BOOM 

Ha!  It's so tedious over there.  Thanks for your healthy doses of sanity.

[MAF]

Morning all, nice and frosty this morning, surprised as it is quite cloudy. Big full moon setting over the thames as i walked  across Westminster bridge.

[Matty88]

Another great model run for the longer term but I fear us in EA may well have to contend with rain showers from Wednesday onwards if the charts are to be believed - but before then it looks like we’ll get at least a few wintry showers! 

Still a close run thing though but it’s best to keep expectations low for now...

Edited December 31, 2020 by Matty88

[Blazerblue]

Good hard frost, down to -3, sunny now and the flooding we’ve had is easing. Another week of this is fine, dry everything out, then some snow would be nice.

To everyone here, here’s to a safe, healthy and happy new year

[Hotspur62]

Hit a minimum of -2.7 here in Locksbottom in the early hours.thick frost outside but now cloudy and temp risen to -1.5.Trends on models overnight have traded slightly colder but as least till Monday I still feel anything that falls from sky will be rain as opposed to snow.that said and using SM -7.5 uppers we would be in business late Tuesday evening onwards(on latest UKMO)
 

have a good day , stay safe and here is to a healthy and white new year for SE GUYS AND GIRLS

[lottiekent]

Morning

Woken to -0.7c with the frost sparkling in the sun and quite a breeze so that’ll feel lovely and bracing out there today...best find my wooly hat.

Have a good day.

[Ellozee]

Good morning all! Long time away from the forums. What a year, sadly not in weather terms. Glad to see a proper frosty morning on the drive to work today, car thermo was 1.3 degrees when I got in. Hope you're all well. I did see some flakey falling snow, albeit at 5am on December 4th, for about 10 minutes fingers crossed for a better spell in the next few weeks.

[Snipper]

Latest at Stansted Airport. 

[Southender]

 

Made me laugh.

[staplehurst]

Just a quick summary of the global models from their 00z runs on Monday, for the 24hr accumulations 06z Wed to 06z Thu. Clearly most handled the event pretty well, with the ECMWF having a bit of a wobble. Yes some chopping and changing occasionally brought the precipitation slightly further north/south with each run, but the multi-model consensus was pretty clear - with only a very low chance of anything happening north of the M4...

[Eagle Eye]

11 hours ago, Jackski4 said:

Just look closely!!! Nah I’m messing mate, I don’t know if he’s trolling or not at this point. I wish I had his enthusiasm to life though.

It Had some for the right South of our region. 

[lewis028]

Morning,

Having moved a couple of weeks ago from Eastwood to Hadleigh, Benfleet, we have our first hard frost. This is the stables at the back looking SE, currently -2c. Lovely! 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning all,

from a pretty chilly S.E.London, with a decent Frost about.

Quite encouraged by the overnight Model runs.

Signs from the Models, that the Siberian High wants to muscle in on the scene, in the top right hand corner, of the charts.

"Slowly, slowly, catchy monkey", springs to mind.

As long as this Synoptic pattern (High pressure to N/N.E, Low pressure to the S.), stays in place, it can only be a matter of time before we start to draw in some colder 850's, from the East.

Looking at the overnight runs, we could see some Wintry Showers start to affect the Region, early next Week.

Charts of the Day, from me.

Yes and I know, they're still a fair way out. ECM at t192,t216 and t240:

  

The "Holy Grail" link up between the Russian, Scandinavian and Greenland Highs.

Even the very cold and Snowy spell of January 1987, was an "On/Off" affair for a few Days.

I have newspaper cuttings, from a couple of Broadsheets, to this effect.

The METO changed their Outlook 3 times, in as many Days.

It went from Cold/Very Cold with Snow at times, to Milder with Rain at times and then back to Cold/Very Cold with Snow at times.

Any Shower trains that do set up, at the moment I would favour a mid-Kent Streamer.

A shade too much N. in the flow, for a Thames Streamer.

Obviously, too early to call yet and depends on the "Vector, Victor."

In my experience, 0 degrees to 22.5 degrees (N to N.N.E. flow), favours Norfolk and the East Coast and East Kent.

45 degrees (N.E. flow), favours a mid-Kent to East Sussex Streamer.

67.5 degrees (E.N.E. flow), favours a Thames Streamer.

90 degrees (E. flow), isn't that great for any of our Region, when talking about convective ppn. The very short sea track between the extreme N. of France/Belgium, is too dry and doesn't really allow convection to take place.

This is what we want and one of the Snow making charts of the 20th Century, for the S.E. Region:

The 500hPa version of this chart has been my "Wallpaper", for many Years.

850hPa temperatures, around -20c engulfed the whole of our Region. This caused not just "Lake Effect" Snow but a whole "Ocean" of Snow, for our Region, especially in the East.

My former home location of Bromley, N.W. Kent/S.E. London had around 10 inches of level Snow, by the end of the Snowy spell.

Regards,

Tom.   

Edited December 31, 2020 by TomSE12