South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[Southender]

27 minutes ago, Shere Khan said:

I’m still feeling optimistic for central/eastern Kent on this run. The north downs (lenham heath/Challock. I’m currently planning on chasing this through the north downs around the areas above collecting snow depths. Obviously depending on the next set of runs. Will be uploading pics on here tomorrow night as I go..?

Hope you have a decent boat. Perhaps you can collect snow depths at the various buoys in the Channel?

[Jackski4]

Uhh guys? Is this the first peak at the weather system coming just below being aligned with Galway in Ireland? That would surely make it further north than forecast currently if so.

[jamesgold]

2 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Uhh guys? Is this the first peak at the weather system coming just below being aligned with Galway in Ireland? That would surely make it further north than forecast currently if so.

Has anyone got a picture of a model at this point in time?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

3 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Uhh guys? Is this the first peak at the weather system coming just below being aligned with Galway in Ireland? That would surely make it further north than forecast currently if so.

I think it might be.. 

However looking at the sat loop you can see why it's going to miss us. The track sends it straight through the channel even more so South.. 

 

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, jamesgold said:

Has anyone got a picture of a model at this point in time?

Not an up to date one since the LP appeared on the radar. To my very extremely untrained eye it looks further north though, waiting for the new model runs eagerly now. I heard we wanted it to come in near Galway and that’s where it looks like it is to me!

[jamesgold]

The radar movement looks like will take that top area quite a way south of Galway, is there more on top waiting to build?

[BLS]

3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I think it might be.. 

However looking at the sat loop you can see why it's going to miss us. The track sends it straight through the channel even more so South.. 

 

Unfortunately you look correct there unless it pivots on itself in the channel it’s going to be cold but dry I think 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

2 minutes ago, Spraggyy said:

Unfortunately you look correct there unless it pivots on itself in the channel it’s going to be cold but dry I think 

No bad thing really... 

Great to get the snow falling but trying to get it to settle would be a nightmare still.. unless like today in places evaporative cooling took place.. Take tonight for example.. Currently 4c here with a DP of 2.4 we are not even cooling the ground down yet.. I assume soil temps are probably still quite high.. We haven't really had a week of cold dry weather coupled with slightly above average SSTs and you can see why we need so many things to fall into place for snow 

 

[Jackski4]

4 minutes ago, jamesgold said:

The radar movement looks like will take that top area quite a way south of Galway, is there more on top waiting to build?

I’ve no idea, possibly? It’s only just appeared on radar I would presume we’ll know more as it builds throughout the night. All nighter anyone?

[Harsh Climate]

19 minutes ago, Southender said:

Hope you have a decent boat. Perhaps you can collect snow depths at the various buoys in the Channel?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just now, Jackski4 said:

I’ve no idea, possibly? It’s only just appeared on radar I would presume we’ll know more as it builds throughout the night. All nighter anyone?

00z or 06z tomorrow will probs clear it all up for us.. But I wouldn't be pulling an all nighter for this one to much risk involved 

 

[Jackski4]

Is this kind of track way beyond the realms of possibility?

[Ben M]

Well whatever it is that the METO are basing their data on its been consistent with the system going right through the channel for most of the day on the 'forecast' section of the radar, my forecast from them has been flipping between no snow/snow/no snow (and currently no snow) throughout the day though. The Weather Channel has remained consistent for me in showing precip from 8-9pm tomorrow starting as rain/snow mix and then pure snow from 10pm to 3am ish and I often find them to be quite accurate but I don't know what model they use? 

[Alpine glow]

I'll just head down to the beach then and watch all our snow melt into the Channel   If it does clip us here in Brighton though, i'll grab a few fans and blow some your way South Easterners.

Really though, i'm actually still quite hopeful for tomorrows snow!

Edited December 29, 2020 by Alpine glow

[Paul Sherman]

2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

No bad thing really... 

Great to get the snow falling but trying to get it to settle would be a nightmare still.. unless like today in places evaporative cooling took place.. Take tonight for example.. Currently 4c here with a DP of 2.4 we are not even cooling the ground down yet.. I assume soil temps are probably still quite high.. We haven't really had a week of cold dry weather coupled with slightly above average SSTs and you can see why we need so many things to fall into place for snow 

 

Exactly correct

Until we see a good week of frosts, freezing fog and conditions to prime the soil these sliders are pointless. The reason I am giving this spell a rating of 0.5 so far is down to the following criteria 

Snowflakes Seen = 0 

Sleet Seen = 0

Frosts = 0

Fog or Freezing Fog = 0

Temps below Freezing = 0

Am giving it 0.5 for the better synoptics but until we get freezing weather to lay the foundations for a decent blast from the east or north east these events are pointless and only good when they come after the priming to top up the snow amounts or a battleground sets up weeks into the event.

I do wish our Kent and Sussex, Hants, Surrey members the best of luck tomorrow night and please if you get settling snow get our early before it drip drip drips away for some pictures

[BLS]

6 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Is this kind of track way beyond the realms of possibility?

I fear the red line is the course it will take shows how close it could be though just a small shift north (20-30 miles) north and you never know but I’m not getting my hopes up 

[Southender]

7 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Is this kind of track way beyond the realms of possibility?

Wishful thinking unfortunately mate.

The track will be more like the yellow line I’ve drawn. 
 

But never say never I suppose.

[Jackski4]

@Southender @Spraggyy

you are both more then likely correct sure is fun to think about though. You never know!! Bless us all with our Snapchat lines!

[Shere Khan]

29 minutes ago, Southender said:

Hope you have a decent boat. Perhaps you can collect snow depths at the various buoys in the Channel?

It barely snows here in Broadstaires let alone in the flippin Channel

[BLS]

Just now, Jackski4 said:

@Southender @Spraggyy

you are both more then likely correct sure is fun to think about though. You never know!! Bless us all with our Snapchat lines!

I don’t want to be correct and I hope I am not but time will tell, I remember something last this a few years back (can’t remember what year) but something was expected to miss and go along the channel and the morning off it all changed so not unheard of.

[Jackski4]

If you guys take a look at the radar you can see there is indeed more precipitation building above being level  with Galway now. Come on guys, all nighter!!!! Haha.

[Floatylight]

Does anybody know why all that coming from the North Sea just fizzles out as it hits land?

Has got as far as Norwich at times then just disappears?thanks x

[jojobut]

I remember in December 2010 watching on the radar and even seeing the clouds from worthing seafront on a works Xmas do, all of them snow showers moving casually along the channel and not come inland like the originally were suppose to, thinking that should be over us 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

11 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Exactly correct

Until we see a good week of frosts, freezing fog and conditions to prime the soil these sliders are pointless. The reason I am giving this spell a rating of 0.5 so far is down to the following criteria 

Snowflakes Seen = 0 

Sleet Seen = 0

Frosts = 0

Fog or Freezing Fog = 0

Temps below Freezing = 0

Am giving it 0.5 for the better synoptics but until we get freezing weather to lay the foundations for a decent blast from the east or north east these events are pointless and only good when they come after the priming to top up the snow amounts or a battleground sets up weeks into the event.

I do wish our Kent and Sussex, Hants, Surrey members the best of luck tomorrow night and please if you get settling snow get our early before it drip drip drips away for some pictures

Coming down to local experiences so far.. Not so much a nationwide cold spell (yet) so while someone around north Oxfordshire which have seen 2 days of settling snow would call it as good as 2018..

Our time will come. I recall the last few easterly flows that setup we got 3 or 4 surprise snow events which gave good coverings each time.. 

The fog and frosty weather earlier in the month end of November was welcome.. 

Winter is still flying by though

 

[Floatylight]

6 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

If you guys take a look at the radar you can see there is indeed more precipitation building above being level  with Galway now. Come on guys, all nighter!!!! Haha.

My radar seems to have that prop thingy going on atm.

Right below Ireland!

So difficult to see!