South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[SouthLondonCold]

Only 2.3 Celsius now in South East London, not in an especially elevated position. Temperatures and dewpoints seem better than expected, but does anybody have any idea how the precipitation is looking as we need the heavy stuff to come on land for a good shot

[alexisj9]

Hmmm, the weather is different to ITV's forecast already. It's stopped raining and the shower train is to my east. Plus it looks like the low in the channel is heading for Sussex, though could be wrong about the last bit. Just triangulating where the low is, and how it looks to be moving to me 

[Snipper]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Hmmm, the weather is different to ITV's forecast already. It's stopped raining and the shower train is to my east. Plus it looks like the low in the channel is heading for Sussex, though could be wrong about the last bit. Just triangulating where the low is, and how it looks to be moving to me 

Seems to be going NNE approx at the moment. 

[Stabilo19]

A bit cooler than expected this evening and i'd love it to snow in London but really don't think it'll happen! It'll be horribly chilly and damp, probably a few degrees above freezing with rain. 

[Jamie M]

Temperature tumbling like mad.

4.9°C, a good 2/3°C lower than forecast.

[Mapantz]

37 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Well I think its good to 0.3c either way. ( tolerance is 0.5c

Its been snowing heaving & settling on grass not on pavements at 0.3c then as soon as temp went to -0.1c it settled on roads so feels about right...

Just wanted to jump in here in regarding temperature accuracy.. I highly doubt it's accurate to 0.3°C?! Maybe 1°C at a push..

The £70 Davis VP2 sensirion temp sensor is only accurate to 0.2C within a range of -5°C - 65°C

[MAF]

27 minutes ago, SouthLondonCold said:

Only 2.3 Celsius now in South East London, not in an especially elevated position. Temperatures and dewpoints seem better than expected, but does anybody have any idea how the precipitation is looking as we need the heavy stuff to come on land for a good shot

strange, its 4.5 here in SE18 and i am close to the common, you must be up toward shooters hill for that difference in temps. i think the cloud cover is keeping temps up though.

[Snipper]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Just wanted to jump in here in regarding temperature accuracy.. I highly doubt it's accurate to 0.3°C?! Maybe 1°C at a push..

The £70 Davis VP2 sensirion temp sensor is only accurate to 0.2C within a range of -5°C - 65°C

Think there is a real problem with accuracy. Think you can only say what your thermometers are reading on average. Not what the actual temperature is. Tested some with a reading for boiling pure water. Generally about 100°c but other temperatures seem to vary markedly.  The other problem I perceive is humidity readings. Also all over the place. 

[SouthLondonCold]

2 minutes ago, MAF said:

strange, its 4.5 here in SE18 and i am close to the common, you must be up toward shooters hill for that difference in temps. i think the cloud cover is keeping temps up though.

Back up to 2.9 now with some more cloud cover! Maybe my thermometer could read too low but then again it was over 36 back in August. I'm also out of London more which probably reduces the urban heat island effect.

[Snipper]

Will this be right or wrong?

[SMU]

Cheers @Mapantz

Interestingly your UKV model turned the rain to snow over the SE tonight - 

[Mapantz]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Cheers @Mapantz

Interestingly your UKV model turned the rain to snow over the SE tonight - 

Yes. 18Z is pretty much the same too. Rain/snow mixture in the early hours! A shame most will be in bed unless they're on furlough and want to stay up/get up early? 

[alexisj9]

10 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Will this be right or wrong?

Looking at the direction of stuff in the channel right now, probably right, but I don't think there'll be any snow for us.

[snowbob]

Well I’m not on furlough got work tomorrow, but won’t stop me twitching at the curtains all night.

Will it,won’t it. Don’t matter. At least the will it chance is there.

Thats the point I come on here.

Edited December 3, 2020 by snowbob

[cookie27]

Well I'll be here all night to let you all know what happens 

[Stroudley]

A total of 18.8mm rain today which is a pretty decent effort.

Temperatures dropped away with the clearance of the rain at about 5pm, and got down to 2.3C Rising quickly now though, and back up to 4.3

The weather station started showing a snow symbol about an hour ago, and it has just disappeared (the symbol, not the weather station...)

 

[Kentspur]

Been stuck.at 4.4c here in Gravesend the best part of an hour are we expecting temps to rise or drop I'm confused lol

Edited December 3, 2020 by Kentspur

[Nick F]

Looking at radar trajectories, the rain shield around the developing low in the frontal wave near Cherbourg seems to be pivoting north towards south coast further west than models suggest. So maybe the earlier EC runs before the nudges east could be correct. Interesting radar watching tonight. 

[SMU]

4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Looking at radar trajectories, the rain shield around the developing low in the frontal wave near Cherbourg seems to be pivoting north towards south coast further west than models suggest. So maybe the earlier EC runs before the nudges east could be correct. Interesting radar watching tonight. 

My temps got to 3.1 then lifted to 3.3 now stationary due to the cloud deck.

Im guessing a slow decline once the PPN gets going & hoping for a transition around 1am...

Whats your thoughts?

[Eskimo]

5 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Looking at radar trajectories, the rain shield around the developing low in the frontal wave near Cherbourg seems to be pivoting north towards south coast further west than models suggest. So maybe the earlier EC runs before the nudges east could be correct. Interesting radar watching tonight. 

I'll hold you to that, Nick. Benefits us a lot more here in the Midlands. 

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Eskimo said:

I'll hold you to that, Nick. Benefits us a lot more here in the Midlands. 

The icon was definitely further south on the 18z!!maybe we still in it mate?!!

[Hotspur62]

Yes temperatures seem on the rise again after sharp falls late afternoon/early evening.My temp is now 3.1 up 0.5 degrees in last hour and a bit.At least it looks encouraging on extended EC again with blocking to the North looking a growing possibility as December progresses.All in all a lot to be optimistic if you would like to see cold winter weather-the best start temperature wise for 6 years

[pinball wizard]

2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Down in the 3s now 3.8C. A drop of 3C in 2 hours..

Hi Steve, any guesses as to what Ipswich may get tomorrow early morning? I'm fearing a flow off the laminate floor north sea

[Eskimo]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

The icon was definitely further south on the 18z!!maybe we still in it mate?!!

Taking the ICON into isolation. As Nick alluded to with regards to an apparent westward shift, the pivot was 'supposed' to occur due south of around East Sussex. However the turn seems to be happening around West Sussex. The system seems to be slowing considerably in its easterly movement. More beneficial for those across internal parts of the UK at this stage. 

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

Taking the ICON into isolation. As Nick alluded to with regards to an apparent westward shift, the pivot was 'supposed' to occur due south of around East Sussex. However the turn seems to be happening around West Sussex. The system seems to be slowing considerably in its easterly movement. More beneficial for those across internal parts of the UK at this stage. 

I think we know by 1am which way this is going!!ecm or further west!!!!