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Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020/21


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Siberian snow at last. Looks like an area larger than the UK just got dumped on  

Noticed we didn't have Snow & Ice thread yet for this year, one of my favourites of the year. So here's the latest offering:  

Well, well, well.... Checked out US NIC early, as I am out in the morning....  Snow cover -    small reductions in both East and West. But Its an absolute killer for ice extent.....

Posted Images

Ok folks, a few things to keep in mind.

First, we try to keep climate change discussions to the climate area. When climate discussions occur outside it usually derails the thread and the topic at hand gets buried. Yes, there will be some 'skeptics' that put the reality of the rapidly diminishing Arctic situation to the back of their minds and come here for the big number gains to feel better, but that's not breaking any rules.

Second, if you have an issue with a post you have 2 options:
    a - report it or message a moderator if you think it breaks any rules
    b - refute it and/or provide alternative evidence

If you go with option "b", make sure to keep things civil and on topic.

Others are welcome to pick out the stats that suit their viewpoint, or try to post objective analysis of the short term sea ice situation in here. Similarly, feel free to talk about the climate side of things in the climate area too.

For something on topic:

 

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55 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

Shame NA is taking all the snow; need some Eurasia side as we head into Winter proper!!

Who is this NA you speak of and what can we do to get our snow back? 🤔🤷🏻‍♂️

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Although still growing at a well above average pace, the record breaking sea ice growth phase has come to an end for now.
 

5day10th.thumb.png.eeb46db9bacbd268877f0c41ff78a64f.png

Massive +ve surface temp anomalies are predicted for the coming week, so it looks like the CAA, Baffin and Hudson Bay might be the main areas for accelerating ice growth

20201110165808-b5a339da10c1b04d4ccb726b0ed96ff616a7d5bf.thumb.png.9db4bdb6f660a29d4bc8c767e78ae895.png

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Took a break whilst Masie was down...  3 days of data were missing in the end.

Last time I reported Masie, extent had just lost (-3K)  mainly caused by a large loss in the Central Arctic Basin(-73K), as BFTV has discussed above. 

Masie came back up this afternoon...

3 days of growth have been recorded of (+99K), (+161K) and +164K). These are above average for the time of year, - which is   about +110K).

Extent total now 8695K Km2.  Thus, the ice is still in 'catch up' mode, still being in a 2nd or 1st to last position (achieved over the last 3 days), but now approaching the levels of the 'pack', 

- see graphic below from Masie showing its version of current events -                                                                            

image.thumb.png.c4218607c66e3176cba05ce72987da83.png

See also the Jaxa version  for comparison and also for the next 3 weeks outlook. (C/O the ASIF)

image.thumb.png.d17885e0cd2006788de6f25abd509184.png                      

Individual areas have continued in much the same way as before the data problem.

I have combined the 3 days of changes in the numbers outlined below..

Beaufort (-4K) - now full.       Chukchi (+2K).  ESS(+164K) continued the gains, whilst Laptev is meeting some resistance from SST's, and only gained (+80K). 

Kara is only slowly growing (+38K), whilst Barents remained static (0)...   

Greenland added (+30K), whilst Baffin added (+59K). Hudson only managed (+4K) as milder air swept in.

Elsewhere CAA is now full (0), and the Central (CAB) gained (+54K) as the ice edge migrated southwards again over the last 2 days. 

It has however, not yet caught up with where it was last week.

Finally, an update from the DMI thickness and volume chart -

image.thumb.png.6f6af775ef4d2dcf53dd649f19da4dc5.png 

which is still showing large thicknesses to the north of the North pole and volume just about hanging on.

However, more of a disappointment to me,  is that no more new ice is yet recorded in Bering or the SOO. 

MIA  

 

  

                                     .

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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2 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Took a break whilst Masie was down...  3 days of data were missing in the end.

Last time I reported Masie, extent had just lost (-3K)  mainly caused by a large loss in the Central Arctic Basin(-73K), as BFTV has discussed above. 

Masie came back up this afternoon...

3 days of growth have been recorded of (+99K), (+161K) and +164K). These are above average for the time of year, - which is   about +110K).

Extent total now 8695K Km2.  Thus, the ice is still in 'catch up' mode, still being in a 2nd or 1st to last position (achieved over the last 3 days), but now approaching the levels of the 'pack', 

- see graphic below from Masie showing its version of current events -                                                                            

image.thumb.png.c4218607c66e3176cba05ce72987da83.png

See also the Jaxa version  for comparison and also for the next 3 weeks outlook. (C/O the ASIF)

image.thumb.png.d17885e0cd2006788de6f25abd509184.png                      

Individual areas have continued in much the same way as before the data problem.

I have combined the 3 days of changes in the numbers outlined below..

Beaufort (-4K) - now full.       Chukchi (+2K).  ESS(+164K) continued the gains, whilst Laptev is meeting some resistance from SST's, and only gained (+80K). 

Kara is only slowly growing (+38K), whilst Barents remained static (0)...   

Greenland added (+30K), whilst Baffin added (+59K). Hudson only managed (+4K) as milder air swept in.

Elsewhere CAA is now full (0), and the Central (CAB) gained (+54K) as the ice edge migrated southwards again over the last 2 days. 

It is however not yet caught up with where it was last week.

Finally, an update form the DMI thickness and volume chart -

image.thumb.png.6f6af775ef4d2dcf53dd649f19da4dc5.png 

which is still showing large thicknesses to the north of the North pole and volume just about hanging on.

However, more of a disappointment to me,  is that no more new ice is yet recorded in Bering or the SOO. 

MIA  

 

  

                                     .

Great informative post as usual MIA 👍

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MiA In recent years the Bering don't tend to get sea ice until around December so I would not expect much notice table ice here for a while although in the short term, the Chukchi sea does look fairly cold. There is forecasts of more southerly winds in the medium term mind but hopefully the Bering sea will get reasonable ice cover unlike in 2018/19 where it was a struggle. 

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12 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

MiA In recent years the Bering don't tend to get sea ice until around December so I would not expect much notice table ice here for a while although in the short term, the Chukchi sea does look fairly cold. There is forecasts of more southerly winds in the medium term mind but hopefully the Bering sea will get reasonable ice cover unlike in 2018/19 where it was a struggle. 

Geordie..

 Thanks for this.

Funnily enough, following my 'disappointment' remark in my previous post/item, I thought it worthwhile doing some analysis for today, but since I have half an hour free now, will post it here.

Year                   Date of Refreeze  (DOY)                                                     Amount as per today's date (314)

                  Bering           SOO                                                                                Bering             SOO

2020             299             309                                                                                   1K                   1K

2019             295             295                                                                                   13K                3K

2018             302             311                                                                                    4K                 7K 

2017              293            293                                                                                   11K                8K

2016             293             301                                                                                    2K                 16K

2015              308            300                                                                                    1,5K              16K

,,,,,,,,

2012               302           300                                                                                    80K                1K

All the above based upon Masie.

As you can see, a considerable variability.

I thought 2015 was a good year for sea ice, but Bering was same as today at this point. SOO was better though.  But just look at the sea ice first freeze date in Bering?

2016 was bad for ice?  and  started off similar to todays ice position.

2012 was bad for ice in start date? - but look at what happened in Bering.

2018  was not good as you say, and  started out quite late, but unlike this year made early gains, before stalling later on..  

Presumably the 2012 freeze up was due to the sea ice freezing outwards from the pack.

This year 2020 - started out on time, but has failed to consolidate. 

I have made several references recently that the last couple of years have seen the ice freeze along the Siberian coastline, before the  main Arctic ice pack moves in. I notice a debate in the ASIF on this subject. It apparently is a new phenomena, and it clearly will  be depend upon the temperatures in Siberia, and this year, up until recently.  they have been warm -  Something to watch for going forwards.

It would seem that 'ice freeze date'  is not changing too much, but that weather and the temperatures of Siberia dictate most of what goes on in the SOO thereafter. However, the SST still tend to dominate in Bering, though with exceptions (like last year) when the weather was clearly a driver with very good conditions in Bering for sea ice expansion. So it is still a factor.

Not too sure the above helps, but it sure does prove the variability and the number of factors involved.

MIA 

   

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Todays Masie shows a  reduced rate of the ice growth,

New extent 8763K Km2 - still in 2nd place, but now about 100K of the next lowest.

That represents an increase of 68K Km2 - below average for the time of year.

Area information shows Beaufort (-1K), and Chukchi (+7K). 

ESS gained a further (+32K) whilst Laptev (+6K) continues to slowly fill. Kara (-4K) continued to be affected by the warmer air over  Western Russia., and Barents(0) remained  in 'wait state'.

Greenland (+1)  and Baffin (0) both slowed down due to the milder air that had been in NE of America being transferred into this area. Hudson (0), is now turning colder again now this air has passed by. CAA (full) also stalled.

Central (CAB) grew again after the setback reported by BFTV, and is now showing more ice,  after an increase of (+27K).

Elsewhere Bering remined static, but SOO doubled in size (+1K).😀

I thought it may be of some use to show the areas that are used by Masie.

Something of a surprise to me is that Bering does not start until  the ice passes thru the straits.

image.thumb.png.d76859373ffccbd292d474c114922af2.png

 

MIA

 

 

    

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Just for reference the NW European heat extends up into the Arctic as svalbard (78N) records its warmest ever November Temp on record at 9.4c 😩

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3 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Just for reference the NW European heat extends up into the Arctic as svalbard (78N) records its warmest ever November Temp on record at 9.4c 😩

Cold and snow hunting in the UK at this rate will become a fool's errand... 😞

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17 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Cold and snow hunting in the UK at this rate will become a fool's errand... 😞

Don't you find the old adige that get snow over Eastern Europe and Scandinavia a bit of a folly catacol? It's the same ever year 😔😔😔ie the hallowed siberin high 😒

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2 hours ago, Catacol said:

Cold and snow hunting in the UK at this rate will become a fool's errand... 😞

Nature has a habit of showing everyone is wrong. On the whole snow is problematic in UK because of where we are. 

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2 hours ago, swfc said:

Don't you find the old adige that get snow over Eastern Europe and Scandinavia a bit of a folly catacol? It's the same ever year 😔😔😔ie the hallowed siberin high 😒

For the Siberian high to edge west the key is that the jet hammers into eastern Europe. The high doesnt just move on its own  - it needs to be undercut and the eddy effect draw it west. The problem we have with our warming world is that high pressure belts are edging north, and the Azores/Euro high is becoming more than just a semi permanent feature with the jet often now riding to the north. Add to that the warm north pacific and a sharper vertical temperature gradient creating a more powerful winter vortex than was the case in the past and we have a context every winter that I think is hard to shake. The best hope might be shattered vortex events when everything is thrown into chaos as per 2018...but beneficial impacts of these are not consistent, forecastable or frequent. Tropospherically developed and sustained Scandy Highs in the heart of winter are becoming rare beasts. I'm still scarred by the 2012 catastrophe! Best chance, when westerlies are in decline, is now March. Our 2 best "winter" months in the last 10 years have arguably both been March. So much is different now compared to pre 1998.....

 

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Hi everyone

Interesting discussion on the northern hemispheric climate. Anyone remember THE moment from 2010? It gave rise to a never to be forgotten climate expression.

Masie extent today increased by an above average 129K Km2 to 8892K Km2 . (still in 2nd lowest position).

The Russian seas continued with their late growth  with the ESS (+16K), Laptev (+46K) and Kara (+23K). To complete  the 'eastern sea' set, Barents still not changed, as the Arctic front moved only marginally south CAB (+3K)..  The lack of spread southwards of the CAB ice is getting a concern now. Also Greenland lost (-8K) as southerly winds hit the area. 

Forgot to add that SOO gained again (+1K) and Bering actually grew (0.2K), so finally a sign of life in the Pacific. 

In the North American continent, the colder air took over again, and Baffin (+36K), and Hudson (+12K) moved forward,again after their stutter.

Seems to be part of the new world order that the East is slowly losing ice, but the West is remaining constant as displayed by the even  earlier starts over there.

I found another really interesting chart  on the ASIF (thanks to Gerontocrat).  Thought it worthwhile showing.

image.thumb.png.9342e7332e6320d1484c7915c9410fde.png

This shows the autumn growth of the ice over the last few years by month.

Seems to be a trend certainly of later refreeze (thanks to the Russian seas), but also of a stronger recovery once  it has started to refreeze.

DMI ice thickness and volume remains constant in increasing the thicker ice around the pole, but  this is not born out by other data yet.

image.thumb.png.4f4e09429ff7af8cef76133418cc1b37.png

I guess we will know in April/May next year when we will see how important this could  be.

MIA

 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
Added in pacific data
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16 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Hi everyone

Interesting discussion on the northern hemispheric climate. Anyone remember THE moment from 2010? It gave rise to a never to be forgotten climate expression.

Masie extent today increased by an above average 129K Km2 to 8892K Km2 . (still in 2nd lowest position).

The Russian seas continued with their late growth  with the ESS (+16K), Laptev (+46K) and Kara (+23K). To complete  the 'eastern sea' set, Barents still not changed, as the Arctic front moved only marginally south CAB (+3K)..  The lack of spread southwards of the CAB ice is getting a concern now. Also Greenland lost (-8K) as southerly winds hit the area. 

Forgot to add that SOO gained again (+1K) and Bering actually grew (0.2K), so finally a sign of life in the Pacific. 

In the North American continent, the colder air took over again, and Baffin (+36K), and Hudson (+12K) moved forward,again after their stutter.

Seems to be part of the new world order that the East is slowly losing ice, but the West is remaining constant as displayed by the even  earlier starts over there.

I found another really interesting chart  on the ASIF (thanks to Gerontocrat).  Thought it worthwhile showing.

image.thumb.png.9342e7332e6320d1484c7915c9410fde.png

This shows the autumn growth of the ice over the last few years by month.

Seems to be a trend certainly of later refreeze (thanks to the Russian seas), but also of a stronger recovery once  it has started to refreeze.

DMI ice thickness and volume remains constant in increasing the thicker ice around the pole, but  this is not born out by other data yet.

image.thumb.png.4f4e09429ff7af8cef76133418cc1b37.png

I guess we will know in April/May next year when we will see how important this could  be.

MIA

 

What moment? What expression MIA? My memory for 2010 Hadley me down on this

 

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On 12/11/2020 at 10:42, Steve Murr said:

Just for reference the NW European heat extends up into the Arctic as svalbard (78N) records its warmest ever November Temp on record at 9.4c 😩

Anyone know the previous record?

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Northwest NI..

A guy called Tony(?) Brown had consistently called that there would be  no more cold spells in England (for about 10years), mainly talking about the lack of snow and ice. He had been correct for quite a while. He subscribed to the 'no more widespread snow in England establishment'.  Unfortunately he had been mainly correct.

When the 2010 cold (with widespread snow) was being projected on most models, with -10C to-20C 850's just to the north of Scotland and all the way up to Greenland about to plunge southwards, he confidently predicted that they were incorrect and would change, as had happened many times before.

24hours before it happened, when all the models were lining up, he came on the MOD Forum with the 3 words  'What the f--k!' 

I think it had more likes than many people have in a lifetime>>>>

He still is around on some forums....  Tony if you are out there... hope you are keeping safe and well.

 

Anyway onto Masie today (apologise for the above), but I felt a little light relief was required on this day  (Friday 13th!).

 

Total extent 8924K Km2 an increase of just +32K Km2, but still in second lowest position.

Area increases were all subdued, with Russian seas still increasing, but with a big slowdown.

Beaufort (+1K), Chukchi(+2K), ESS(+5K), Laptev(+26K). Kara(+17K) and finally at last Barents (+1K). 

Greenland and Baffin lost (-2K) and (-3K) and in common with this area, the Central (CAB) lost (-27K), as  the nasty storm moving across the tip of Greenland moved into the area, on its way towards Svalbard..  It seems to have pushed the ice back northwards  yet again on its eastern flank.

Elsewhere Hudson is moving into ice freeze mode now (+12K) and there were further small gains again in Bering (+1K) and the SOO (+0.5K), indicating that they are now cooling down, ready for their refreeze.

MIA 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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24 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Northwest NI..

A guy called Tony(?) Brown had consistently called that there would be  no more cold spells in England (for about 10years), mainly talking about the lack of snow and ice. He had been correct for quite a while. He subscribed to the 'no more widespread snow in England establishment'.  Unfortunately he had been mainly correct.

When the 2010 cold (with widespread snow) was being projected on most models, with -10C to-20C 850's just to the north of Scotland and all the way up to Greenland about to plunge southwards, he confidently predicted that they were incorrect and would change, as had happened many times before.

24hours before it happened, when all the models were lining up, he came on the MOD Forum with the 3 words  'What the f--k!' 

I think it had more likes than many people have in a lifetime>>>>

He still is around on some forums....  Tony if you are out there... hope you are keeping safe and well.

 

Anyway onto Masie today (apologise for the above), but I felt a little light relief was required on this day  (Friday 13th!).

 

Total extent 8924K Km2 an increase of just +32K Km2, but still in second lowest position.

Area increases were all subdued, with Russian seas still increasing, but with a big slowdown.

Beaufort (+1K), Chukchi(+2K), ESS(+5K), Laptev(+26K). Kara(+17K) and finally at last Barents (+1K). 

Greenland and Baffin lost (-2K) and (-3K) and in common with this area, the Central (CAB) lost (-27K), as  the nasty storm moving across the tip of Greenland moved into the area, on its way towards Svalbard..  It seems to have pushed the ice back northwards  yet again on its eastern flank.

Elsewhere Hudson is moving into ice freeze mode now (+12K) and there were further small gains again in Bering (+1K) and the SOO (+0.5K), indicating that they are now cooling down, ready for their refreeze.

MIA 

Thanks for enlightening me MIA. I hope he swears again this year 😄

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21 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Northwest NI..

A guy called Tony(?) Brown had consistently called that there would be  no more cold spells in England (for about 10years), mainly talking about the lack of snow and ice. He had been correct for quite a while. He subscribed to the 'no more widespread snow in England establishment'.  Unfortunately he had been mainly correct.

Ian Brown and I’m pretty sure that was in January 2013? He definitely was a character, I think he follows me on Twitter he has engaged a few times funny guy.....😀😀

Anyway it seems we’re rapidly coming after 2012 so we should drop to 3rd lowest extent soon.

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4 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Ian Brown and I’m pretty sure that was in January 2013? He definitely was a character, I think he follows me on Twitter he has engaged a few times funny guy.....😀😀

Anyway it seems we’re rapidly coming after 2012 so we should drop to 3rd lowest extent soon.

Yes, I quite liked Ian Brown and like you say a character!  He seemed to be on to something regarding no more widespread in England for quite a while until we had winter 2009/10! 

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