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Just been on Sky News at 2pm talking to Colin Brazier about the Hurricane decent little interview didnt big it up too much as it was thankfully not as bad as expected with the storm surge etc

If Josh Morgerman is telling people to get out, you know this thing is bad - he doesn't quit on any hurricane.  

The power of Nature...

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

942-943 Extrapolated - We could go Sub 940 tonight...

:shok: that makes it cat 5 and catastrophic which could mean tomorrows headlines will be about loss of life and major disaster 

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I'm surprised looking at the webcams just how many people and cars are still out and about, even as close as the estimated landfall within 12hr from now. Once those outer-bands get passing overhead things are only going to deteriorate with each passing hours.

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2 minutes ago, MAF said:

:shok: that makes it cat 5 and catastrophic which could mean tomorrows headlines will be about loss of life and major disaster 

Even if it doesn't it will b catastrophic either way 

It's going to be a very close call 

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There's a larger, better quality version on my twitter page, but here's the animation I was trying to post.
EDIT: It's the speed up in rotation near the end that's just😮

789586081_ezgif.com-optimize(11).thumb.gif.d875bb9b7ae4ff25f99a8a2ec1627d15.gif

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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8 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Tweets not unfurling for anyone else?

They only seem to open in a fresh tab

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21 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Tweets not unfurling for anyone else?

Clear your cookies, or history, everything OK here.

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Couple of points:

1: NO hint of any EWRC at the moment, no obvious moat nor any double wind maxima showing. Suggests the inner core is still tightening up.

2: Thus far no obvious signs of any mid level shear. Its a close call as to whether it impacts Laura before it makes landfall as there was observed earlier today near the coast. Can;t rule out some shear on this just before landfall but its a borderline call.

3: The latest dropsonde has winds around 135kts+ literally a few hundred feet above the surface, with 155kts around 900hpa. To me in my experience, would suggest gusts could well get into that 135-155kts range in the strongest eyewall convection on the Right Front Quadrant. IF Laura undergoes any further deepening those 135+ winds likely to be dragged to the surface and a category-5 at that point becomes very probable.

4: Turn NNW now started. IMO any error will be to the east from this point onwards.

Edited by kold weather
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Yes max recorded at the moment is 145-150MPH so 7 MPH short of CAT 5..

The update at 5pm central will be CAT 4 however that gives us a 3 hour window until the 8pm NHC update. Thats the timeline for CAT 5..

Mid level shear increases post then really so very much close to the wire - pretty irrelevant I guess > just for numbers sake I guess.

Edited by Steve Murr
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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes max recorded at the moment is 145-150MPH so 7 MPH short of CAT 5..

The update at 5pm central will be CAT 4 however that gives us a 3 hour window until the 8pm NHC update. Thats the timeline for CAT 5..

Next recon is probably going to be do or die on that front, especially with the risk of some shear possibly just starting to impact from that point onwards may just prevent any further strengthening past 00z. Something to keep an eye on.

Regardless this is likely going to be one of/the strongest hurricane to ever impact this region and a high cat-4 is going to be very destructive.

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4 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

More Recon on the way.

Still 30% chance of CAT 5 > we need about 3-4 more hours of steady deepening....

When is it forecast to make landfall our time

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The 5pm Edit is 145 MPH / 947 MB.

The forecast is 150MPH / 130 KT > just 7 MPH shy of CAT 5 > but theres enough variable there to still be on the margin... we would need 160 MPH because of rounding.

Edited by Steve Murr
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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The 5pm Edit is 145 MPH / 947 MB.

The forecast is 150MPH / 130 KT > just 7 MPH shy of CAT 5 > but theres enough variable there to still be on the margin... we would need 160 MPH because of rounding.

Even at 145mph it pretty ranks up there on its own. Makes it the 3rd strongest USA landfalling hurricane since Andrew, only behind Hurricane Michael of 2018 and Charley.

150mph makes it joint 2nd with Charley.

Edited by kold weather
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