Jump to content

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Exceptional pressure drop across such a short space of time. - The hurricane is borderline CAT 3 but it wont be long before the winds catch up.

The next 12 hours will be crucial.

 

I think I saw on the dropsonde something borderline cat-4 around 800mbs up, not hard to see that mixing down to the surface in pretty quick order given the strong convectiob and tigthening eyewall.

Simply put, this will 100% be a cat-4 sooner rather than later. Beyond that and something in the 920s would be my best guess for lowest point, but its a large strong hurricane and regardless of 940 or 920 its going to be a very powerful hurricane upon landfall, even if there is a little shear around to take the edge off the top end at landfall.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 270
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Just been on Sky News at 2pm talking to Colin Brazier about the Hurricane decent little interview didnt big it up too much as it was thankfully not as bad as expected with the storm surge etc

If Josh Morgerman is telling people to get out, you know this thing is bad - he doesn't quit on any hurricane.  

The power of Nature...

Posted Images

9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think I saw on the dropsonde something borderline cat-4 around 800mbs up, not hard to see that mixing down to the surface in pretty quick order given the strong convectiob and tigthening eyewall.

Simply put, this will 100% be a cat-4 sooner rather than later. Beyond that and something in the 920s would be my best guess for lowest point, but its a large strong hurricane and regardless of 940 or 920 its going to be a very powerful hurricane upon landfall, even if there is a little shear around to take the edge off the top end at landfall.

What are her chances of reaching cat 5

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

What are her chances of reaching cat 5

Less than 10%
 

@kold weather

 

Look at the last 15 track > Wobble NNE !!!

 

We are now CAT 3 Dropsonde data 115MPH

Edited by Steve Murr
Link to post
Share on other sites

Offically now a category 3, first major of the season.

As for whether it becomes a 5, typically systems in this part of the GoM don't get that high, but then again there is always a chance...I'd say something between 125-135kts is looking probable, anything above that is at the whims of any EWRC and maybe the shear.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Exrapolated is an estimate before the dropsonde data gives an accurate reading.

In this case is was a little way out> but we have 961MB.

Which is 7MB down from the 968MB I posted earlier.

Exceptional pressure drop across such a short space of time. - The hurricane is borderline CAT 3 but it wont be long before the winds catch up.

The next 12 hours will be crucial.

 

Many thanks

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Less than 10%
 

@kold weather

 

Look at the last 15 track > Wobble NNE !!!

 

We are now CAT 3 Dropsonde data 115MPH

Isn't that NNE Wobble not just a pronounced Trochoidal wobble Steve?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Found a couple of webcams that might be interesting to watch.

These are in Port Charles a few miles East of the Texas/Louisiana border.

https://www.cruisin.me/cruise-port-webcams/united-states/lake-charles-louisiana/ 

https://www.kplctv.com/weather/cams/ Click on the static images to bring up the streaming webcams.

This is in Beaumont Texas, a few miles West of the border.

https://fox4beaumont.com/weather/cameras/bec-station

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Isn't that NNE Wobble not just a pronounced Trochoidal wobble Steve?

Could be mate ... Be interesting to see the next 45 mins Sat reps

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

As for cat 5 this is 2020 anything is possible this year 🙄

Yup!

Mother N. has had enough of us messing up her home and is now gonna take a bite out of 'Big Oil'

EDIT: I wouldn't want to be on one of the offshore rigs right now!

Edited by Gray-Wolf
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I think Cat 4 is definitely possible but there will probably be an eyewall replacement cycle that is likely to cut off the window for a cat 5 hopefully. Nevertheless we have our first major hurricane on our hands on what I think will be a very busy hurricane season. Going to be a tough one this year I think with the above average SSTs and a La Nina appearing to build.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
Link to post
Share on other sites

Just checking my posts yesterday and it confirmed my thoughts that we dropped about 1.5mb an hour with an increase through the day and overnight (dropped about 1.5mb an hour though the night). We also added about 40mph in 24 hours to sustained winds. 

The readings this morning are a bit more erratic and ill want to wait until about 3pm but it looks like the rate increased and we should be below 960mb with a good chance of category 4.

For all its flaws earlier with the system it’s worth saying that the Euro has dropped to about 935mb it’s last two runs and comes into 12z at about 960mb which is near enough so well meddled intensity increase and it suggests that tonight will see continuation.

Landfall is due around 9am tomorrow our time.

spacer.png

Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I think Cat 4 is definitely possible but there will probably be an eyewall replacement cycle that is likely to cut off the window for a cat 5 hopefully. Nevertheless we have our first major hurricane on our hands on what I think will be a very busy hurricane season. Going to be a tough one this year I think with the above average SSTs and a La Nina appearing to build.

Looks like it might have just started an ERC as the eye appears to be closing again on the last few Sat images and a gap has formed on the Eastern side.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=ir

EDIT 😮 110knot flag marker thingies on the aircraft recon charts (about 127mph!) and 964mb in the eye

Edited by Ryukai
Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Isn't that NNE Wobble not just a pronounced Trochoidal wobble 

28 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

Looks like it might have just started an ERC as the eye appears to be closing again on the last few Sat images and a gap has formed on the Eastern side.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=ir

EDIT 😮 110knot flag marker thingies on the aircraft recon charts (about 127mph!) and 964mb in the eye

120KT 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Seems to be undergoing a "Merger EWRC"?

This could cement the possibility of a mid to high end Cat 4 > During a merger the system develops an outer eye wall like a ERC however rather than replacing the inner eyewall it merges with the existing one creating a more robust eyewall...

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

952 Extrapolated again

 

Lets he how close it is > Probs 956/956 MB / 125KT on the next set of runs will bring it close to CAT 4.

NNE wobbles finishes a while back.

Eye is now almost clear & system is as annular as they come. > Increased chances of CAT 5 up to 20% as the pressure drop continues at record pace.

137KT is CAT 5.

942A1B68-C0E5-40B3-83A9-352FC792772E.thumb.jpeg.324ca52f06007bf3316ea3da2a030873.jpeg

 

 

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...