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She's working hard on building the CDO. I saw some models forecast a hurricane with a big eye ... this may be so?

jWGJge1.gif

Earlier flyover with the hurricane hunters.

 

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Just been on Sky News at 2pm talking to Colin Brazier about the Hurricane decent little interview didnt big it up too much as it was thankfully not as bad as expected with the storm surge etc

If Josh Morgerman is telling people to get out, you know this thing is bad - he doesn't quit on any hurricane.  

The power of Nature...

Posted Images

Yes - The last part of the eye closing off is the WSW portion-

This has some hot towers now wrapping around anti clockwise.

We are also losing that annoying limpet cloud / thunder canopy to the south which was a resukt if the northerly shear.

The trajectory does now have a more WNW curve as opposed to NW.

Visible satellite shows a nice circular shape with plenty of outflow channels. - Not quite annular yet but starting to look menacing.

Dont be surprised to wake up tomorrow with a CAT 3.

5C841D62-A097-4106-82CA-A5981B499BE9.thumb.jpeg.2b65804ad351c00032747dba41ea05f0.jpeg

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It appears Hurricane Laura is undergoing RI at the moment. -

The eyewall has contracted & increasingly cold cloud tops are wrapping around the tight centre. -

We are also getting the spiral banding in the NE quadrant & the fanned cirrus canopy

- We are still not annular however as circulation speeds up at the centre the shape will become more concentric overnight

Est CAT 3 Wed Am

A16DE90C-CA72-44DB-8E80-493EFF12EC12.thumb.jpeg.b1748737ec51083b203577ad3de28dc6.jpeg

Edited by Steve Murr
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Classic evolution from banding eye with a weak convective eyewall (you see these often in the WPAC) through to a more classic strengthening CDO, helped by a drop in the northerly shear that was from the north. IMO we will probably see quite large pressure drops in the next 24hrs, though winds maybe a little laggy behind that pressure drop unless the core has really tightened up compared to earlier.

Recon flying through right now, suspect we will see pressure somewhere in the 983-980mbs range, but I maybe off there! If I am off, its going to be lower than I expect.

PS - track wise, these systems typically end up on the right side of the NHC forecast at this sort of time range with systems curving northwards, so I suspect extreme west LA may end up landfall zone, a little east of NHC current forecast.

EDIT 1 - Recon found:

225030 2448N 08837W 7513 02383 9839 +187 +139 060017 019 026 004 00

Not a bad call on pressure, my range was just a touch too low!

Edited by kold weather
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If this is anywhere near the mark, we are looking at a significant storm surge with waves already close to 30 feet.

image.thumb.png.f6b0316f1f5a3b3e81c7549d4414fff1.png

NHC going for landfall just east of Houston, too close to call though.  But it does seem increasingly likely that Laura will be coming ashore as a major hurricane.

image.thumb.png.31570cf849024b0b632d95b35981f6b6.png

 

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Posted (edited)

Strengthening but not rapid yet, it’s still expelling the dry air that was on its west side. It appears to have reabsorbed a lot of the lump that detached from it south of Cuba.

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It should deal with its south west side tonight and strengthen faster tomorrow. 

Edited by summer blizzard
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Laura ramping up this morning. 

- Eye now visible on Sat imagery as well as being quite tight V last nights early appearence.

- Plenty of deep convection rapidly circulating around the eye 

- No shear in the way.

> 90KT ~ Current moderate CAT 2 deepening to CAT 3 by this afternoon maybe even lunchtime.

Lowest overnight model was the Euro @935 MB apon landfall which would be high end Cat 4.

Big storm surge as well..

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Laura ramping up this morning. 

- Eye now visible on Sat imagery as well as being quite tight V last nights early appearence.

- Plenty of deep convection rapidly circulating around the eye 

- No shear in the way.

> 90KT ~ Current moderate CAT 2 deepening to CAT 3 by this afternoon maybe even lunchtime.

Lowest overnight model was the Euro @935 MB apon landfall which would be high end Cat 4.

Big storm surge as well..

i have family living in galveston tx. will this storm be coming that close to them? 

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The best advice for them would be to listen to the local advisories provided for evacuation etc

Is it going to hit that location-

Well these are the overnights

D509B18A-1534-4E69-B446-5566AB1DCCB2.thumb.jpeg.61d1c39bc4b1c9f36f264c00c511c529.jpeg

Galveston is right on the western edge of the modelling - however its not just about the direct location of landfall > the storm surge spreads along the coast

A2A2ACEB-E030-44AD-9814-BE5C9CFE28E2.thumb.jpeg.15441dd20001b0ce6cb552adef5c30ba.jpeg

The NCH official track is below- 

20D481FC-CD22-4282-A15B-5C8A20F7F248.thumb.png.2177c6c7038d00f79e19181bd3670afc.png

From where we are today is a day of observation to see if there is any last minute jogs west - because it wouldnt take much to get that way...

I Imagine your family have already been asked to evacuate anyway as Galveston is right on the coastal strip & if they left it it to see what the final track was & it did jog west then it would already be to late to leave.

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As Steve said earlier, this mornings ECM going for a high end Cat 4 at landfall.  

image.thumb.png.1cb03b29533bdf59a816a81f491496f6.png

These spells of 'very' RI have been a noted feature of Atlantic storms over the last few years and it looks to be happening again.  Laura will be going from a TS to a potential Cat 4 within 24 hours.  This is going to be making headlines for quite some time I would imagine!

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22 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

As Steve said earlier, this mornings ECM going for a high end Cat 4 at landfall.  

image.thumb.png.1cb03b29533bdf59a816a81f491496f6.png

These spells of 'very' RI have been a noted feature of Atlantic storms over the last few years and it looks to be happening again.  Laura will be going from a TS to a potential Cat 4 within 24 hours.  This is going to be making headlines for quite some time I would imagine!

It looks like Houston will miss the worst of it and at least according to the Landfall it won't any huge populated areas

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@Willsy

See the image below is the 12z ECM ensembles overlayed with the 00z ENS

the 2 black lines are the 12z & 00z operationals side by side

The black line on the right is the 00z indicating the model has adjusted east overnight - good news for Galveston-

C46E3E98-C149-472D-8133-51B108040685.thumb.jpeg.45abe5b9f9b8c100d03828b28ce435ee.jpeg

 

However weather is all about timing & the models are forecasting a recurve to the N from the current trajectory >
Any delay in that recurve North will net net move the track west again

So keep your eyes on the track today ...

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34 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

It looks like Houston will miss the worst of it and at least according to the Landfall it won't any huge populated areas

Yes, the current track is a lucky escape for large populated areas. Also, Laura will be moving relatively fast which should limit excessive flooding. 

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An overnight view of Laura

Currently CAT 3 !!

973MB / 110MPH.   ( Recon en route )

At this stage CAT 4  expected with CAT 5 not out the picture

146B5EBE-E41D-4ADD-A8DA-01FAE924067C.thumb.jpeg.60c0d9d9375e05845bce68cee7f12b95.jpeg

Edited by Steve Murr
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Extrapolated 952 MB. 😯😯

Its bombing now -- 50/50 whether they upgrade to CAT 3 now > I would say yes on next NHC update.

 

Edited by Steve Murr
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9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Extrapolated 952 MB. 😯😯

Its bombing now -- 50/50 whether they upgrade to CAT 3 now > I would say yes on next NHC update.

 

What's Extrapolated? This isn't on the surface?

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Extrapolated is probably well off for the NOAA flight (it quite often is when flying higher up).

BUT AF recon flight has shown it down to 961mbs extrap now, so thats a drop of 7mbs in 45 mins from the previous flight (and the previous flight was a direct hit on the center, so thats a legitimate drop!

Expect a 4 sooner rather than later, and likely going towards 920s based on everything I'm seeing at the moment. Probably will be a 4 by 18z as winds may take a little time to catch up. Eye really clearing out rapidly at the moment and the eyewall looks very solid now and closed looking at recent microwave imagery. 

Only thing that stops a 5 at this point will be an EWRC kicking off before landfall.

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17 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

What's Extrapolated? This isn't on the surface?

Exrapolated is an estimate before the dropsonde data gives an accurate reading.

In this case is was a little way out> but we have 961MB.

Which is 7MB down from the 968MB I posted earlier.

Exceptional pressure drop across such a short space of time. - The hurricane is borderline CAT 3 but it wont be long before the winds catch up.

The next 12 hours will be crucial.

 

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