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Storms and Convective discussion- 15th August onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
    5 minutes ago, Blazerblue said:

    Suns been out here for 10 minutes, feels horrendous, with the mist it looks like steam coming out the ground 🤔 

    well your still pulling high Theta-W from the low countries well everywhere else slight less is coming in

    also Nick just issued forecast

    THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - SUN 16TH AUG 2020

    Issued 2020-08-16 08:25:58
    Valid: 16/08/2020 0600 - 17/08/2020 0600

    Forecast Details

    Upper low over the Bay of Biscay Sunday morning will drift NE across NW France, with upper level high over southern Scandinavia/Baltic Sea. Shallow surface low pressure will cover southern UK, higher pressure towards the north.

    A warm and moist airmass will continue to advect west from the near continent across much of England and Wales. Trough marked on WV imagery by positive vorticity advection / dry mid-upper air intrusion curling round northern side of upper low and moving NE across NW France and cooler air moving in from the SW is creating ascent and destabilisation of high theta-w plume further north across S England, with a band of heavy rain with embedded lightning crossing the English Channel approaching southern counties of England this morning.

    The upper trough will slowly advance across N and NE across S England, Wales, Midlands and E Anglia through the morning and afternoon, continuing to lift and destabilise warm/moist airmass across southern UK, instability enhanced should morning cloud break to allow insolation/surface heating develop ahead of the trough, bringing bands of heavy rain and thunderstorms northwards. Meanwhile, surface breeze convergence and increasing amounts of sunshine north of the trough may trigger lines of heavy showers and thunderstorms across Wales, Midlands, southern N England to Lincs. Vertical shear (20-30knts) and mid/upper level S/SEly flow will be stronger today across S and E England, so some organisation of storms appear possible here. Although there will be mid-level instability release as the trough moves north supporting elevated storms, addition of surface heating, should cloud breaks develop, will allow CAPE values to reach 500-1000 j/kg – which may allow strong, perhaps locally severe, surface-based storms to develop this afternoon too – capable of large hail (2-3cm), frequent C-G lightning and strong wind gusts. PWAT values of 32mm and 37mm sampled on Herstmonceux and Nottingham ascents suggests high precipitable water content of the atmosphere, so high rainfall totals in a short space of time from stronger storms may bring localised flash-flooding – strong/severe storms most likely across eastern England this afternoon.

    Thunderstorms/heavy showers will continue N across England and Wales this evening and overnight, though lightning activity will likely wane with less instability further north. Isolated thunderstorms may continue across Wales, SW England and Channel Islands overnight.

    Issued by: Nick Finnisspacer.png

     

    just likes other forecasts E England is best today and for storms before the trough sunshine is the key for which I have none

    Edited by Gordon Webb
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    Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
    5 minutes ago, Blazerblue said:

    Suns been out here for 10 minutes, feels horrendous, with the mist it looks like steam coming out the ground 🤔 

    Still very grey and murky here, although a slightly paler murk than an hour ago!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

    From Tony Gilbert

    UPDATE 10.30 am
    As per earlier forecast with following comments;

    Less surface moisture now compared with earlier models.

    Forecast soundings showing some minor SB CIN. Though could easily be overcome if 24 degC is achieved. Though this may not occur till fairly late in the day! Upper shear remains moderate. Particularly so for SE where 60 kts expected at 300 mb and around 40 kts at 500 mb.
    I have therefore added a Severe Thunderstorm risk box for the said region running from 17z through to 22z. Primary risk will be large hail.

    edit - there is an image but whenever I post it's small and doesn't expand like the original

    edit 2 - seem to got it

    risk copy.jpg

    Edited by Gordon Webb
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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
    19 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

    Still very grey and murky here, although a slightly paler murk than an hour ago!

    We're currently under the remains off all the stuff that was over London yesterday.  Murky Drizzle, drizzle and more drizzle 😛 Strangely enough it 'feels' warmer and muggier than yesterday, despite the temp/DP/Hum being alot lower....

    Edited by Ryukai
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    Posted
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
    3 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

    From Tony Gilbert

    UPDATE 10.30 am
    As per earlier forecast with following comments;

    Less surface moisture now compared with earlier models.

    Forecast soundings showing some minor SB CIN. Though could easily be overcome if 24 degC is achieved. Though this may not occur till fairly late in the day! Upper shear remains moderate. Particularly so for SE where 60 kts expected at 300 mb and around 40 kts at 500 mb.
    I have therefore added a Severe Thunderstorm risk box for the said region running from 17z through to 22z. Primary risk will be large hail.

    spacer.png

    I cant read the map could you make it bigger

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    Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
    4 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

    From Tony Gilbert

    UPDATE 10.30 am
    As per earlier forecast with following comments;

    Less surface moisture now compared with earlier models.

    Forecast soundings showing some minor SB CIN. Though could easily be overcome if 24 degC is achieved. Though this may not occur till fairly late in the day! Upper shear remains moderate. Particularly so for SE where 60 kts expected at 300 mb and around 40 kts at 500 mb.
    I have therefore added a Severe Thunderstorm risk box for the said region running from 17z through to 22z. Primary risk will be large hail.

    spacer.png

    Quelle suprise - almost dead in the water just after hoisting the sail...

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
    1 minute ago, Mitch the motorbike storm said:

    I cant read the map could you make it bigger

    image.thumb.png.10efc24209f3e3893dcc0ced4591dc55.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
    1 minute ago, Jamiee said:

    image.thumb.png.10efc24209f3e3893dcc0ced4591dc55.png

    Slight risk = <5% risk. Must be one of the fastest downgrades ever 😛

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
    1 minute ago, Mitch the motorbike storm said:

    Thank you think I'll get some action finally?

    We could both be in for a shout storm wise. It's just waiting and seeing how it all plays out.

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    Posted
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
    1 minute ago, Jamiee said:

    We could both be in for a shout storm wise. It's just waiting and seeing how it all plays out.

    Most likely french imports will die 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
    7 minutes ago, Mitch the motorbike storm said:

    I cant read the map could you make it bigger

    sorted it hopefully check the post again

    Edited by Gordon Webb
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    Posted
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
  • Weather Preferences: snowy or sunny but not too hot!
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
    2 hours ago, Jamiee said:

    UPDATE TO STORM MAP:
    SVR NOW OVER SE ENGLAND & EA WITH A WIDENED MDR ZONE

    image.thumb.png.5198e54560cd0ae97f1311a9ead4c869.png

     

    Apologies for being "thick" but does the map indicate a moderate risk of storms or a risk of moderate storms in intensity?

    Not wishing to be too greedy after the incredible rainfall I experienced yesterday but a repeat today would be interesting. I guess the blob should be about 10 miles southwest to its southern limits for me to enjoy the possibility of a repeat of yesterday's experience.

    Kind Regards

    Dave

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    Posted
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
    1 minute ago, claret047 said:

    Apologies for being "thick" but does the map indicate a moderate risk of storms or a risk of moderate storms in intensity?

    Not wishing to be too greedy after the incredible rainfall I experienced yesterday but a repeat today would be interesting. I guess the blob should be about 10 miles southwest to its southern limits for me to enjoy the possibility of a repeat of yesterday's experience.

    Kind Regards

    Dave

    Òooo good news

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
    7 minutes ago, claret047 said:

    Apologies for being "thick" but does the map indicate a moderate risk of storms or a risk of moderate storms in intensity?

    Not wishing to be too greedy after the incredible rainfall I experienced yesterday but a repeat today would be interesting. I guess the blob should be about 10 miles southwest to its southern limits for me to enjoy the possibility of a repeat of yesterday's experience.

    Kind Regards

    Dave

    AFAIK The colored areas are the chance of getting a storm, and the bold black line is for where the storms will be the most severe if/when they do occur. 

    Edited by Ryukai
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    Posted
  • Location: Leiston
  • Location: Leiston

    Ok so a more classic type set up today with a real forcing mech in play.

    However such a small chance that hinges on the sun making an appearance nearly always fails for anything SB around here, that said the mid level energy that has been with us for days is still in play so if we don't see anything SB there could still be elevated storms embedded.

    The sun is trying to break here on the Suffolk coast for the 5% chance!

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    Posted
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
    6 minutes ago, claret047 said:

    Apologies for being "thick" but does the map indicate a moderate risk of storms or a risk of moderate storms in intensity?

    Not wishing to be too greedy after the incredible rainfall I experienced yesterday but a repeat today would be interesting. I guess the blob should be about 10 miles southwest to its southern limits for me to enjoy the possibility of a repeat of yesterday's experience.

    Kind Regards

    Dave

    In short, the yellow zone is the moderate, but any storms within the black 'hoop' could be severe. It just means that the chance of storms occuring is higher in the MDT than the surrounding green area. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambourne Cambridge 70M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards,Hot Thundery nights.
  • Location: Cambourne Cambridge 70M ASL

    Yesssss the sun is finally out after 3 days of Novemberish gloom now please bring on the heat and humidity.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Am up in Norfolk to this evening and skies are dark looking towards Cromer - Am guessing my drive back around 5pm could be eventful lol 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

    for anybody who couldn't see the picture I posted in that Tony Gilbert update and haven't checked original post here it is again

    risk copy.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate
  • Weather Preferences: Wake me up when the storms arrive
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate

    Interesting range of charts on offer this morning. I glanced at the radar and the rain's heading NNW right now along with the low pressure centre. So....hmmmm....where's my large cellar with grains of salt in it?

    On the other hand, the sun has finally broken through the murk over Reigate and is weakly warming things here - a bit like a candle.

    So I'm not taking any forecast seriously for now.

    Edited by StormLoser
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