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Storms and Convective discussion- 15th August onwards


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1 hour ago, Ryukai said:

We might be in for some 'fun' next weekend 😛 how often do you see possible tropical cyclone formation this far North!, that plus the remains of Omar = batten down the hatches maybe???

nhc1.thumb.png.301cb68bfb007afb7ba3b42c809d6332.png

 🤪 Who knows, maybe in 10 years time well be having our own hurricane season with how things are going 🤪

EDIT:  You can see both of them spinning away on this gif 😛  that un-named one is even trying to form thunderstorms in it's centre. How cute 🤣

goes16_vis-swir_atl.thumb.gif.eca4e9a56d8c0b279d6299ced392f808.gif

I hope not, I think what we get are strong and powerful enough. I've hated wind storms since 87 when everything was spinning around in my garden, and there was lightning, or may be power flashes no thank you. 

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Didn’t know we was expecting an avalanche today 🤔

Stonking day for storms. Had two cells with continuous thunder [but mostly no visible lightning again]. Here's some pictures of one storm that I tracked as it progressed up the M11 which produced some

Am enjoying a weekend away 60 miles S of Prague in the pretty town of Písek, the storm front that came in this evening was dramatic! 

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20 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

Screenshot_20200905_114801_com.android.chrome.jpg

....and your reasons for posting that in the Storms thread, armageddon in Andover at 6pm??

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Thought today was going to be boring, but got some massive towers to my South + South West shooting up and creating/breaking through pileus layers.  Not to mention the very ominous looking storm passing to my North atm. 😀

To my South. There's literally about 30 seconds between shots, so should give you some idea as to how fast these are going up!  I'm getting surrounded by them now 😄 

2025240617_IMG_20200906_132710173_HDR1.thumb.jpg.725f62afcc0e911ccecfe426acb0f59b.jpg 385611911_IMG_20200906_132842970_HDR1.thumb.jpg.d8e83082c550df8533ddf49e65af3f87.jpg

Edited by Ryukai
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56 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

Thought today was going to be boring, but got some massive towers to my South + South West shooting up and creating/breaking through pileus layers.  Not to mention the very ominous looking storm passing to my North atm. 😀

To my South. There's literally about 30 seconds between shots, so should give you some idea as to how fast these are going up!  I'm getting surrounded by them now 😄 

2025240617_IMG_20200906_132710173_HDR1.thumb.jpg.725f62afcc0e911ccecfe426acb0f59b.jpg 385611911_IMG_20200906_132842970_HDR1.thumb.jpg.d8e83082c550df8533ddf49e65af3f87.jpg

I think the ominous looking storm to your north must have arrived here in South Cheshire, with a brief but very heavy shower of rain. A sudden and big change as I was out in the warm sun talking to my neighbour just half-an-hour ago!

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2 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

I think the ominous looking storm to your north must have arrived here in South Cheshire, with a brief but very heavy shower of rain. A sudden and big change as I was out in the warm sun talking to my neighbour just half-an-hour ago!

Yup, seems to be very slow moving, the lines just reaching me now, it's gone very dark outside 😛 🔦

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Still some menacing looking cells moving past.  Got this beauty my West.

1743685187_IMG_20200906_1528015371.thumb.jpg.1d128c2d8e0d8c0b2a680d390c652abd.jpg

Got one in the distance to my NW (in the Crewe/Chester directional line) that's attempting to make an Anvil, done a bit of a pigs'ear job of it.  But it's still trying. 😛 (apologies for the blurriness had to zoom in and my crappy phone cams idea of zooming is to make the pixels bigger 😛 )

170104895_IMG_20200906_152858078_HDR1.thumb.jpg.c7102196f40ffc2607ac684d256f4249.jpg 2134922364_IMG_20200906_1531211141.thumb.jpg.bfc034aea35211067f9eb97cde009043.jpg

Edited by Ryukai
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Looks like we may have some warm weather on the way!

Last chance saloon for a decent event, if the warm weather does materialize?

I'd love to hear the thoughts of some of our more knowledgeable members on what is possible at this time of year.

 

 

 

 

 

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Just now, Southern Storm said:

Looks like we may have some warm weather on the way!

Last chance saloon for a decent event, if the warm weather does materialize?

I'd love to hear the thoughts of some of our more knowledgeable members on what is possible at this time of year.

I wouldn't call myself overly knowledgeable, but if a cracking plume is possible in April (see 2018), then I see no reason why it shouldn't also be possible well into September. 

 

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5 hours ago, Lance M said:

I wouldn't call myself overly knowledgeable, but if a cracking plume is possible in April (see 2018), then I see no reason why it shouldn't also be possible well into September. 

Net Weather Forecast is showing 30C on Monday for me next week 🤪 0% Storm risk though at the mo 😭

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19 hours ago, Lance M said:

I wouldn't call myself overly knowledgeable, but if a cracking plume is possible in April (see 2018), then I see no reason why it shouldn't also be possible well into September. 

 

The only discernible difference would be the sea temps in the channel, which could help imports across, and help maintain coastal convergence - which could be a good trigger for afternoon activity (provided enough solar heating can occur)

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55 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

The only discernible difference would be the sea temps in the channel, which could help imports across, and help maintain coastal convergence - which could be a good trigger for afternoon activity (provided enough solar heating can occur)

Indeed, although I don't remember seeing a proper SB import making it across for years, so I mostly ignore the sea temps and look for situations where elevated storms will break out instead.

It's worth noting that ECM shunts the warmth away very quickly next week now, which could work in our favour seeing as most of the best plume storms down here occur when there's a cold front quickly advancing from the west.

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It now looks like we're going to have a cut-off low situation developing early next week. While this is good news for heat lovers, I'm not sure if it will be for storm lovers, but it's something to keep an eye on at least!

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5 hours ago, Lance M said:

It now looks like we're going to have a cut-off low situation developing early next week. While this is good news for heat lovers, I'm not sure if it will be for storm lovers, but it's something to keep an eye on at least!

If that cut-off low edges further NE then we could end up in a setup very similar to the very thundery mid-June period this year!

Edited by Zak M
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3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

If that cut-off low edges further NE then we could end up in a setup very similar to the very thundery mid-June period this year!

That's what worries me! If it's like June, then it's good news for many northwest of a line from Chelmsford to Bristol, but we feed on scraps down here 😪

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Thought I’d pop a photo just took in Sicily, note that post on the right doesn’t have a blue light above it, that’s from the lightning, also, while it looks like it’s hit than brolly it’s actually a bit behind 

640A4C8F-FC7C-466E-BAF6-C2DF7D83FD94.jpeg

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12 minutes ago, Anthony147 said:

Thought I’d pop a photo just took in Sicily, note that post on the right doesn’t have a blue light above it, that’s from the lightning, also, while it looks like it’s hit than brolly it’s actually a bit behind 

640A4C8F-FC7C-466E-BAF6-C2DF7D83FD94.jpeg

Haha, yeah, if that'd hit the brolly, it would be a completely different photo for sure! 😄

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6 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Very what?

Maybe not for the far south, should have changed that 😛

Edited by Zak M
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9 hours ago, Zak M said:

Maybe not for the far south, should have changed that 😛

I'm sure it'll kick off somewhere like st Albans and be half way to Birmingham by the time i even reach the M25...

Edited by Chris Lea-Alex
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A trough across Southern most counties on Wednesday lunchtime on the latest ukmo fax.

The cold front advancing South over the Midlands at the same time.

Hot and humid air in place in the South.

Without looking at all the other ingredients needed, to an untrained eye things look promising.

Now, let's hear what is wrong from a storm potential here..

Cap cant be eroded? ( need 32c for it to break) not enough Cape? Covid 19?

Offers below.

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12 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

A trough across Southern most counties on Wednesday lunchtime on the latest ukmo fax.

The cold front advancing South over the Midlands at the same time.

Hot and humid air in place in the South.

Without looking at all the other ingredients needed, to an untrained eye things look promising.

Now, let's hear what is wrong from a storm potential here..

Cap cant be eroded? ( need 32c for it to break) not enough Cape? Covid 19?

Offers below.

Mixing out air masses, wind too strong, wind too light, CAPE too high (heard that one before), meagre lapse, meagre sheer, food shortage, brexit, Harry & Meghan...

Could be anything

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