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Storms and Convective discussion- 15th August onwards


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Stonking day for storms. Had two cells with continuous thunder [but mostly no visible lightning again]. Here's some pictures of one storm that I tracked as it progressed up the M11 which produced some

Am enjoying a weekend away 60 miles S of Prague in the pretty town of Písek, the storm front that came in this evening was dramatic! 

Didn’t know we was expecting an avalanche today 🤔

Posted Images

4 hours ago, Xanderp009 said:

Do you know wether mine earlier was positive

Most definitely a negative CG. 

image.thumb.png.8d4d59a98e3c3aa949525dff5996ed55.png  152632816_VID_20200828_1449024_exported_478_1598630269475.thumb.jpg.33bf20be451ec5407232b82a8c53a31d.jpg

You can see the branches on your one compared with a negative CG caught by someone else.

Negative CGs also have return strokes whilst positive ones don't. A Positive CG would also be brighter in nature & louder.

image.thumb.png.991feeea249a5e31e2c605f14a34c422.png 152632816_VID_20200828_1449024_exported_478_1598630269475.thumb.jpg.33bf20be451ec5407232b82a8c53a31d.jpg

If you compare a positive CG with your one, it doesn't match at all. 

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Interesting! I reckon I saw around 10 bolts yesterday, and judging by the posts on here they were all -CG. This was the only one that came out well on camera. Are +CGs rare in the UK? 

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25 minutes ago, AIRMET said:

Interesting! I reckon I saw around 10 bolts yesterday, and judging by the posts on here they were all -CG. This was the only one that came out well on camera. Are +CGs rare in the UK? 

Didn't see any, but I'm sure I heard a couple from the storm that went to the north of me, and hit deal, there were normal quite distant rumbles, and the were also a few bangs, that were even quite audible where I was. Plus a house got struck by lightning, and a fire happened from it, may have been one of those. 

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27 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Didn't see any, but I'm sure I heard a couple from the storm that went to the north of me, and hit deal, there were normal quite distant rumbles, and the were also a few bangs, that were even quite audible where I was. Plus a house got struck by lightning, and a fire happened from it, may have been one of those. 

I think -ve CGs can be pretty destructive in their own right, but a +ve one is almost exclusively so. The voltages involved in either are quite astonishing, but the difference is quite significant - especially considering that a +ve travels a lot further through the cloud so there’s a lot more energy to be discharged.

-ve strikes are often quite feint and anaemic, but the right frame of a capture can make it look a lot more like a positive - so you’re probably best judging it from a video clip to see how many pulses there are.

The noise is also a fairly good identifier - like you say there’s regular rumbling thunder and then there are the proper bangs.

In the few stormy moments granted to the south so far this summer I think the only positive strike I know of was the one that exploded a nearly tree and set the grass on fire. The sound alone suggested to me that was a proper positive strike. Huge bang.

My rule: if it scares the s4it out of you it’s probably +ve lightning 😅

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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3 hours ago, AIRMET said:

Interesting! I reckon I saw around 10 bolts yesterday, and judging by the posts on here they were all -CG. This was the only one that came out well on camera. Are +CGs rare in the UK? 

You're not bound to see one close-up in a normal storm since they only make up about 5 - 10% of them. 

Although, in a stronger storm, you're more likely to see them unlike a normal thundery 10 minute shower you'd normally get here in the UK.

Strong storms & at times squall lines are your best bet at seeing or hearing one.

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This was the sky to the east of here not long after the storm passed to the south on Friday.

 12BDCC25-23F5-49CB-BA8C-669E6BE19948.thumb.jpeg.be5b8814c892065b2c7cf6eb6a680743.jpeg

Also just for the sound as I didn't catch any lightning, here's one more clip of the thunder. 

 

Edited by matt111
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Not UK related I know so apologies, but since we are all talking about positive strikes, I thought I would share this video of a supercell in Kansas in 2017. Every single strike is positively charged.

 

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20 hours ago, Xanderp009 said:

When weather decides to be cute and cgive you tiny accas

15988119065768552980244468507359.jpg

They are bigger here lol, but I ignored them, as not expecting anything of note today. 

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On 30/08/2020 at 14:29, Zak M said:

Not UK related I know so apologies, but since we are all talking about positive strikes, I thought I would share this video of a supercell in Kansas in 2017. Every single strike is positively charged.

 

 

A few greats that I’ve come across with definite positive strikes. The latter one being in Macclesfield in 1998! 

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 02 Sep 2020 - 05:59 UTC Thu 03 Sep 2020

ISSUED 20:05 UTC Tue 01 Sep 2020

ISSUED BY: Chris

A deep low and the associated forward side of an upper trough (PVA) will move into Ireland and northern and western Britain during Wednesday. Outbreaks of showery rain with some heavier downpours will develop along and just ahead of an advancing cold front through the period. Instability in this zone is very limited / non-existent (up to 200 J/kg) so lightning is not expected to be very widespread. However, the trough/front will generate a strongly sheared environment with deep layer and low-level shear of 30-40kts.  The could help to force some embedded deeper convection and thus some lightning cannot be ruled out. An area over central and northern Ireland into W/SW Scotland is the favoured area for lightning between 15z-22z. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-09-02

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 03 Sep 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 04 Sep 2020

ISSUED 19:04 UTC Wed 02 Sep 2020

ISSUED BY: Chris

A deep Atlantic low just southeast of Iceland and associated upper trough axis will push slowly towards northwestern Scotland through Thursday. 

Instability will once again be limited (less than 200 J/kg) and quite shallow with the tops of any convection that can develop only reaching 10-12k feet. However, shear parameters will increase through the afternoon with as much as 40kts of shear possible by 18z on Thursday. With this in mind, lightning is not expected to be very widespread, however a few isolated lightning strikes could occur in any more organised convection, or lines of convection. 

Far northwestern Scotland will be slightly favoured within this area, during the late afternoon and overnight. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-09-03

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Some vicious looking clouds beginning to form, I know they'll come to nothing other than a 'sharp shower' further down the line, but still pretty neat to look at, got one that kind of looks like a shelf cloud (but without the storm) rolling past. 😛

605001947_IMG_20200903_1221407121.thumb.jpg.44dc651a3bccafec8b699f61f528ea5b.jpg

Edited by Ryukai
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49 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

Some vicious looking clouds beginning to form, I know they'll come to nothing other than a 'sharp shower' further down the line, but still pretty neat to look at, got one that kind of looks like a shelf cloud (but without the storm) rolling past. 😛

605001947_IMG_20200903_1221407121.thumb.jpg.44dc651a3bccafec8b699f61f528ea5b.jpg

Had several shelf clouds without a storm come over here, during the stormy part of the heat wave, all that was left of any French storm that tried to cross the channel. 

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2 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

Had several shelf clouds without a storm come over here, during the stormy part of the heat wave, all that was left of any French storm that tried to cross the channel. 

Yes, I noticed these clouds as I headed back to South Cheshire from North Yorkshire. A few spots of rain but nothing more.

Sorry Ryukai, it was your post I should have quoted.

 

Edited by A Face like Thunder
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We might be in for some 'fun' next weekend 😛 how often do you see possible tropical cyclone formation this far North!, that plus the remains of Omar = batten down the hatches maybe???

nhc1.thumb.png.301cb68bfb007afb7ba3b42c809d6332.png

 🤪 Who knows, maybe in 10 years time well be having our own hurricane season with how things are going 🤪

EDIT:  You can see both of them spinning away on this gif 😛  that un-named one is even trying to form thunderstorms in it's centre. How cute 🤣

goes16_vis-swir_atl.thumb.gif.eca4e9a56d8c0b279d6299ced392f808.gif

Edited by Ryukai
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