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Storms and Convective discussion- 15th August onwards


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Stonking day for storms. Had two cells with continuous thunder [but mostly no visible lightning again]. Here's some pictures of one storm that I tracked as it progressed up the M11 which produced some

Got some cool pictures of the London development on my evening walk. Stood and watched it grow for a while. Considering not much has come this way, it was great to watch, even if from afar! 

Didn’t know we was expecting an avalanche today 🤔

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I've noticed that around this time of year it's normally when were talking about the heat untill the deep cold but the recent posts have shown it's been hotter on the forecasts and it seems the jet stream normally swings round 1 time a year but it's already gone round twice nearly this year could this be because of climate change or the rotation of the earth is slowing and could we see two storn seasons emerge one earlier January to July and one later Septermber to november like Australia

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5 hours ago, Xanderp009 said:

I've noticed that around this time of year it's normally when were talking about the heat untill the deep cold but the recent posts have shown it's been hotter on the forecasts and it seems the jet stream normally swings round 1 time a year but it's already gone round twice nearly this year could this be because of climate change or the rotation of the earth is slowing and could we see two storn seasons emerge one earlier January to July and one later Septermber to november like Australia

Superman slowed the earths orbit and It meant he went back in time. That’s probably more likely than two UK storm seasons in the same year 😅

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13 hours ago, Xanderp009 said:

I've noticed that around this time of year it's normally when were talking about the heat untill the deep cold but the recent posts have shown it's been hotter on the forecasts and it seems the jet stream normally swings round 1 time a year but it's already gone round twice nearly this year could this be because of climate change or the rotation of the earth is slowing and could we see two storn seasons emerge one earlier January to July and one later Septermber to november like Australia

What on earth are you on about !

 

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Hi gang ,some lively weather very possible tomorrow and friday .localised down pours even some storms possible. Hope all of you are keeping well, i am LURKING around a d enjoy your posts .cheers .

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52 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

What on earth are you on about !

 

In other words i have noticed that there has been a rise in storm chance later in the summer and i noticed that there was a dip in the normal main areas but before that there was a daily storm chance and i'm eondering wether august could be taken off our storm months and two months before and sfter august being more thundery or wether this year is a year off or wether this is a thing due to climate change

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34 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

In other words i have noticed that there has been a rise in storm chance later in the summer and i noticed that there was a dip in the normal main areas but before that there was a daily storm chance and i'm eondering wether august could be taken off our storm months and two months before and sfter august being more thundery or wether this year is a year off or wether this is a thing due to climate change

 

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Edited by Lance M
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53 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

In other words i have noticed that there has been a rise in storm chance later in the summer and i noticed that there was a dip in the normal main areas but before that there was a daily storm chance and i'm eondering wether august could be taken off our storm months and two months before and sfter august being more thundery or wether this year is a year off or wether this is a thing due to climate change

For some August has been a thundery month. Granted not everyone has seen storms, but this could be said about any month in the UK. In my years of storm chasing I have noticed that the most thundery month is generally July, but in 2020 this was the least thundery month of the summer. Considering I get out and about and looking at the UK as a whole I would say overall it goes like this 

1) July 2) June 3) May 4) August 5) September 6) April. The other months don't really bring many storms, although there are still storms. Especially Oct/Nov near the coasts.

 

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I have just finished editing and uploading the rest of the timelapse videos from 2 weeks ago that I forgot to put out on here - so I combined them into a single video.

I am very pleased on how these turned out - 2:36 and 3:18 are my favourites 🙂

 

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5 hours ago, Xanderp009 said:

In other words i have noticed that there has been a rise in storm chance later in the summer and i noticed that there was a dip in the normal main areas but before that there was a daily storm chance and i'm eondering wether august could be taken off our storm months and two months before and sfter august being more thundery or wether this year is a year off or wether this is a thing due to climate change

Yes, but the cake mix won’t rise properly if you set the oven to the wrong temperature

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6 hours ago, Xanderp009 said:

In other words i have noticed that there has been a rise in storm chance later in the summer and i noticed that there was a dip in the normal main areas but before that there was a daily storm chance and i'm eondering wether august could be taken off our storm months and two months before and sfter august being more thundery or wether this year is a year off or wether this is a thing due to climate change

That makes it much clearer !

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Severeweather.eu has issued a storm risk for parts of the English Channel and S England tomorrow.

20200827_day1_zoom1.thumb.jpg.cdc47151255900f5f6cecb327be6afa2.jpg

"SLGT risk has been issued for far southern England and across the English Channel into far northern France with a threat for severe winds and tornadoes.

Some isolated severe storms will be possible within the strongly sheared and helical environment near the warm front. Storms that can form along the warm front and close to the triple point could become supercellular with tornado threats."

https://www.severe-weather.eu/outlooks-day1/weather-forecast-europe-aug27th2020-mk/

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1 hour ago, Zak M said:

Severeweather.eu has issued a storm risk for parts of the English Channel and S England tomorrow.

20200827_day1_zoom1.thumb.jpg.cdc47151255900f5f6cecb327be6afa2.jpg

"SLGT risk has been issued for far southern England and across the English Channel into far northern France with a threat for severe winds and tornadoes.

Some isolated severe storms will be possible within the strongly sheared and helical environment near the warm front. Storms that can form along the warm front and close to the triple point could become supercellular with tornado threats."

https://www.severe-weather.eu/outlooks-day1/weather-forecast-europe-aug27th2020-mk/

I’m in hackney tomo. Good times for the south - an area with a fantastic track record for storm forecasts

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 27 Aug 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 28 Aug 2020

ISSUED 07:36 UTC Thu 27 Aug 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper trough will slowly migrate eastwards across Britain and Ireland on Thursday, with heights falling aloft through the day as the mid-levels continue to cool. A rather messy pattern is expected, with a complex area of low pressure slowly drifting eastwards while gradually deepening, accompanied by an assortment of occlusions. One such feature will bring pulses of showery rain eastwards across southern Ireland into Wales and SW England, and there could be a slight uptick in some sporadic lightning activity over the open seas and perhaps S Wales / SW England for a time. Depending on how robust any embedded convection can be, strong shear and backed low-level winds suggests the risk of an isolated tornado across southern counties of England this afternoon / evening. Also monitoring parts of SE England into East Anglia during the evening hours where rainfall could intensify to bring a few isolated lightning strikes.

Otherwise, the main focus for some lightning will be over southern Ireland during the afternoon / early evening as cloud breaks allow surface heating to occur and deep convection to develop aided by low-level convergence. Here, enhanced vorticity along convergence zones may become ingested into the cloud base to bring the chance of a few funnel clouds or weak tornado. Some hail may also accompany the strongest cells.

Overnight, rain and showers will likely affect many areas, with particular focus over the English Channel for deeper convection where showers are likely to become increasingly numerous in a pattern more akin to autumn. Here there could be a few lightning strikes, more especially towards the end of the night, close to some adjacent coasts. A low-end SLGT has been issued to cater for this risk. The odd funnel cloud or waterspout may be possible almost anywhere close to southern and western coasts.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-08-27

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12 hours ago, Zak M said:

Severeweather.eu has issued a storm risk for parts of the English Channel and S England tomorrow.

20200827_day1_zoom1.thumb.jpg.cdc47151255900f5f6cecb327be6afa2.jpg

"SLGT risk has been issued for far southern England and across the English Channel into far northern France with a threat for severe winds and tornadoes.

Some isolated severe storms will be possible within the strongly sheared and helical environment near the warm front. Storms that can form along the warm front and close to the triple point could become supercellular with tornado threats."

https://www.severe-weather.eu/outlooks-day1/weather-forecast-europe-aug27th2020-mk/

They were rubbish during the recent tropical low though. For instance, they chucked a whole blanket yellow like that over large parts of the far south east on multiple days, where next to nothing happened.

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18 hours ago, Xanderp009 said:

Could we see two storm seadons for the south east arise

I would have a read here about thunderstorm types and why / when we get them. 

 

Edited by chapmanslade
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Don't know about anywhere else but there are some beautiful convective skyscape here in Dover already. Good luck everyone, I estimate about an hour before something happens. 

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Met Office Yellow Thunderstorm Warning:

11:00 - 20:00 FRI

image.thumb.png.d2efd90e808341e9225bf85c56b9c0aa.png

image.thumb.png.a88e13e6b1ba5ad09984ecd744f36619.png

Writeup:

Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop quite quickly later on Friday morning, but peaking during the afternoon for many, before probably becoming more restricted to the southeast and south coastal counties towards evening. Some places will miss the heavier rain, but other locations could see around 20 mm within an hour and perhaps 30 to 40 mm in around 3 hours, sufficient to cause issues on the roads.

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