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Storms and Convective discussion- 15th August onwards


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Stonking day for storms. Had two cells with continuous thunder [but mostly no visible lightning again]. Here's some pictures of one storm that I tracked as it progressed up the M11 which produced some

Am enjoying a weekend away 60 miles S of Prague in the pretty town of Písek, the storm front that came in this evening was dramatic! 

Didn’t know we was expecting an avalanche today 🤔

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    I've noticed that around this time of year it's normally when were talking about the heat untill the deep cold but the recent posts have shown it's been hotter on the forecasts and it seems the jet stream normally swings round 1 time a year but it's already gone round twice nearly this year could this be because of climate change or the rotation of the earth is slowing and could we see two storn seasons emerge one earlier January to July and one later Septermber to november like Australia

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    Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
    5 hours ago, Xanderp009 said:

    I've noticed that around this time of year it's normally when were talking about the heat untill the deep cold but the recent posts have shown it's been hotter on the forecasts and it seems the jet stream normally swings round 1 time a year but it's already gone round twice nearly this year could this be because of climate change or the rotation of the earth is slowing and could we see two storn seasons emerge one earlier January to July and one later Septermber to november like Australia

    Superman slowed the earths orbit and It meant he went back in time. That’s probably more likely than two UK storm seasons in the same year 😅

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  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
    13 hours ago, Xanderp009 said:

    I've noticed that around this time of year it's normally when were talking about the heat untill the deep cold but the recent posts have shown it's been hotter on the forecasts and it seems the jet stream normally swings round 1 time a year but it's already gone round twice nearly this year could this be because of climate change or the rotation of the earth is slowing and could we see two storn seasons emerge one earlier January to July and one later Septermber to november like Australia

    What on earth are you on about !

     

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  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    7 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

    What on earth are you on about !

     

    🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

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  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

    Hi gang ,some lively weather very possible tomorrow and friday .localised down pours even some storms possible. Hope all of you are keeping well, i am LURKING around a d enjoy your posts .cheers .

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  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    52 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

    What on earth are you on about !

     

    In other words i have noticed that there has been a rise in storm chance later in the summer and i noticed that there was a dip in the normal main areas but before that there was a daily storm chance and i'm eondering wether august could be taken off our storm months and two months before and sfter august being more thundery or wether this year is a year off or wether this is a thing due to climate change

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, NE Hampshire
  • Location: Bramley, NE Hampshire
    34 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

    In other words i have noticed that there has been a rise in storm chance later in the summer and i noticed that there was a dip in the normal main areas but before that there was a daily storm chance and i'm eondering wether august could be taken off our storm months and two months before and sfter august being more thundery or wether this year is a year off or wether this is a thing due to climate change

     

    source.gif

    Edited by Lance M
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  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
    53 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

    In other words i have noticed that there has been a rise in storm chance later in the summer and i noticed that there was a dip in the normal main areas but before that there was a daily storm chance and i'm eondering wether august could be taken off our storm months and two months before and sfter august being more thundery or wether this year is a year off or wether this is a thing due to climate change

    For some August has been a thundery month. Granted not everyone has seen storms, but this could be said about any month in the UK. In my years of storm chasing I have noticed that the most thundery month is generally July, but in 2020 this was the least thundery month of the summer. Considering I get out and about and looking at the UK as a whole I would say overall it goes like this 

    1) July 2) June 3) May 4) August 5) September 6) April. The other months don't really bring many storms, although there are still storms. Especially Oct/Nov near the coasts.

     

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  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    I have just finished editing and uploading the rest of the timelapse videos from 2 weeks ago that I forgot to put out on here - so I combined them into a single video.

    I am very pleased on how these turned out - 2:36 and 3:18 are my favourites 🙂

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
    5 hours ago, Xanderp009 said:

    In other words i have noticed that there has been a rise in storm chance later in the summer and i noticed that there was a dip in the normal main areas but before that there was a daily storm chance and i'm eondering wether august could be taken off our storm months and two months before and sfter august being more thundery or wether this year is a year off or wether this is a thing due to climate change

    Yes, but the cake mix won’t rise properly if you set the oven to the wrong temperature

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    Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
    6 hours ago, Xanderp009 said:

    In other words i have noticed that there has been a rise in storm chance later in the summer and i noticed that there was a dip in the normal main areas but before that there was a daily storm chance and i'm eondering wether august could be taken off our storm months and two months before and sfter august being more thundery or wether this year is a year off or wether this is a thing due to climate change

    That makes it much clearer !

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  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Could we see two storm seadons for the south east arise

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Severeweather.eu has issued a storm risk for parts of the English Channel and S England tomorrow.

    20200827_day1_zoom1.thumb.jpg.cdc47151255900f5f6cecb327be6afa2.jpg

    "SLGT risk has been issued for far southern England and across the English Channel into far northern France with a threat for severe winds and tornadoes.

    Some isolated severe storms will be possible within the strongly sheared and helical environment near the warm front. Storms that can form along the warm front and close to the triple point could become supercellular with tornado threats."

    https://www.severe-weather.eu/outlooks-day1/weather-forecast-europe-aug27th2020-mk/

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  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
    1 hour ago, Zak M said:

    Severeweather.eu has issued a storm risk for parts of the English Channel and S England tomorrow.

    20200827_day1_zoom1.thumb.jpg.cdc47151255900f5f6cecb327be6afa2.jpg

    "SLGT risk has been issued for far southern England and across the English Channel into far northern France with a threat for severe winds and tornadoes.

    Some isolated severe storms will be possible within the strongly sheared and helical environment near the warm front. Storms that can form along the warm front and close to the triple point could become supercellular with tornado threats."

    https://www.severe-weather.eu/outlooks-day1/weather-forecast-europe-aug27th2020-mk/

    I’m in hackney tomo. Good times for the south - an area with a fantastic track record for storm forecasts

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  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Day 1 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 27 Aug 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 28 Aug 2020

    ISSUED 07:36 UTC Thu 27 Aug 2020

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    An upper trough will slowly migrate eastwards across Britain and Ireland on Thursday, with heights falling aloft through the day as the mid-levels continue to cool. A rather messy pattern is expected, with a complex area of low pressure slowly drifting eastwards while gradually deepening, accompanied by an assortment of occlusions. One such feature will bring pulses of showery rain eastwards across southern Ireland into Wales and SW England, and there could be a slight uptick in some sporadic lightning activity over the open seas and perhaps S Wales / SW England for a time. Depending on how robust any embedded convection can be, strong shear and backed low-level winds suggests the risk of an isolated tornado across southern counties of England this afternoon / evening. Also monitoring parts of SE England into East Anglia during the evening hours where rainfall could intensify to bring a few isolated lightning strikes.

    Otherwise, the main focus for some lightning will be over southern Ireland during the afternoon / early evening as cloud breaks allow surface heating to occur and deep convection to develop aided by low-level convergence. Here, enhanced vorticity along convergence zones may become ingested into the cloud base to bring the chance of a few funnel clouds or weak tornado. Some hail may also accompany the strongest cells.

    Overnight, rain and showers will likely affect many areas, with particular focus over the English Channel for deeper convection where showers are likely to become increasingly numerous in a pattern more akin to autumn. Here there could be a few lightning strikes, more especially towards the end of the night, close to some adjacent coasts. A low-end SLGT has been issued to cater for this risk. The odd funnel cloud or waterspout may be possible almost anywhere close to southern and western coasts.

    http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-08-27

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  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Bbc's weather radar showing a french import or so it seems

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    Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
    13 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

    Bbc's weather radar showing a french import or so it seems

    That seems unlikely. It’s probably showing development of cells in the channel during the night hours into Friday

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  • Location: Bramley, NE Hampshire
  • Location: Bramley, NE Hampshire
    12 hours ago, Zak M said:

    Severeweather.eu has issued a storm risk for parts of the English Channel and S England tomorrow.

    20200827_day1_zoom1.thumb.jpg.cdc47151255900f5f6cecb327be6afa2.jpg

    "SLGT risk has been issued for far southern England and across the English Channel into far northern France with a threat for severe winds and tornadoes.

    Some isolated severe storms will be possible within the strongly sheared and helical environment near the warm front. Storms that can form along the warm front and close to the triple point could become supercellular with tornado threats."

    https://www.severe-weather.eu/outlooks-day1/weather-forecast-europe-aug27th2020-mk/

    They were rubbish during the recent tropical low though. For instance, they chucked a whole blanket yellow like that over large parts of the far south east on multiple days, where next to nothing happened.

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  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
    18 hours ago, Xanderp009 said:

    Could we see two storm seadons for the south east arise

    I would have a read here about thunderstorm types and why / when we get them. 

     

    Edited by chapmanslade
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  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

    Don't know about anywhere else but there are some beautiful convective skyscape here in Dover already. Good luck everyone, I estimate about an hour before something happens. 

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  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)

    Met Office Yellow Thunderstorm Warning:

    11:00 - 20:00 FRI

    image.thumb.png.d2efd90e808341e9225bf85c56b9c0aa.png

    image.thumb.png.a88e13e6b1ba5ad09984ecd744f36619.png

    Writeup:

    Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop quite quickly later on Friday morning, but peaking during the afternoon for many, before probably becoming more restricted to the southeast and south coastal counties towards evening. Some places will miss the heavier rain, but other locations could see around 20 mm within an hour and perhaps 30 to 40 mm in around 3 hours, sufficient to cause issues on the roads.

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