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Storms and Convective discussion- 15th August onwards


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16 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Didn't think the risk was that high for tomorrow

An ESTOFEX forecast used to mean something, but it’s a little all over the place of late - unless you’re in Central Europe where they focus a lot of their attention.

I would expect tomorrow to be somewhat similar to today, except with a much reduced lightning risk and less in the way of heavy rain as well.

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Stonking day for storms. Had two cells with continuous thunder [but mostly no visible lightning again]. Here's some pictures of one storm that I tracked as it progressed up the M11 which produced some

Got some cool pictures of the London development on my evening walk. Stood and watched it grow for a while. Considering not much has come this way, it was great to watch, even if from afar! 

Didn’t know we was expecting an avalanche today 🤔

Posted Images

53 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Estofex for tomorrow.

2020081906_202008172107_2_stormforecast_xml.thumb.png.e41354fb2e5451181bce10ac4d6f81dc.png

https://www.estofex.org/

Well at least there only needs to be 1 Thunderstorm somewhere in almost the entire UK within the next 24 hours from 6am, and they would miraculously be right. 🤪

Edited by Ryukai
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@congerball My sister sent me almost exactly the same image of those almost vertical clouds, she was walking by The Stray!

Meanwhile down south - another risk of thunder. Have to say it's making planning activites with children quite a headache.

Clouds moving very swiftly this morning.

 

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Just dull and grey all morning here in Stoke-on-Trent.  More like a typical winters day, aka dull uniform skuddy stratus with non stop drizzle.

Can see a hint of blue skies on the horizon now though.

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1 hour ago, Team Squirrel said:

Meanwhile down south - another risk of thunder. Have to say it's making planning activites with children quite a headache.

 

Lol we’re in Devon and have taken the ‘what they heck’ approach otherwise we won’t do anything! Stepped off a bus in Exeter City centre yesterday late morning and were greeted by a massive flash, boom then downpour. Nothing we could do but get soaked!

Heavy band of showers approaching us from the SW which will hopefully whizz through to leave a fine afternoon!!??

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46 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

My take on today

Screenshot_20200818_101013_com.android.chrome.jpgyellow 45% maybe

You'll be right, as you missed out the areas which seem to find it impossible to get a storm this year lol. 

 

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Not expecting much here today and will probably end up largely fine and sunny but some nice cauliflowers going up to the east.

 

F55D92A9-B745-47DB-A224-FC5BA2CB6AAF.jpeg

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1 hour ago, MP-R said:

Not expecting much here today and will probably end up largely fine and sunny but some nice cauliflowers going up to the east.

 

F55D92A9-B745-47DB-A224-FC5BA2CB6AAF.jpeg

Surrounded by them at the moment 😄 

The Atmosphere/Sky is amazingly clear right now too, haven't seen it like this for months!  No horizon haze/opaqueness whatsoever, even to the South of me it's perfectly clear all the way down to the horizon 😮 

677578314_IMG_20200818_1223451301.thumb.jpg.b9ea2ab8998d9d249302d07c3d61721b.jpg

The big cloud disappearing to the left is the small storm that just passed over Stone.

Edited by Ryukai
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30 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

Surrounded by them at the moment 😄 

The Atmosphere/Sky is amazingly clear right now too, haven't seen it like this for months!  No horizon haze/opaqueness whatsoever, even to the South of me it's perfectly clear all the way down to the horizon 😮 

677578314_IMG_20200818_1223451301.thumb.jpg.b9ea2ab8998d9d249302d07c3d61721b.jpg

The big cloud disappearing to the left is the small storm that just passed over Stone.

Yes nice clear Atlantic air. The sun actually feels stronger now than it did throughout the heatwave.

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Just now, Ryukai said:

Couple of strikes showing on the radar in NW London, but guessing at the lack of 'I heard Thunder' posts I'm guessing they were false 😛 

I think they are genuine. There is a small but intense radar echo in the same place.

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5 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I think they are genuine. There is a small but intense radar echo in the same place.

Things may be about to kick off 😛 Lightning maps is showing a Strike near Ascot, there's an intense storm there too. 😄 Some stonking great towers rapidly going up to my S/SW as well. 

England/Wales looks about ready to have a breakout of a very spotty rash 😛

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1 hour ago, MP-R said:

Not expecting much here today and will probably end up largely fine and sunny but some nice cauliflowers going up to the east.

 

F55D92A9-B745-47DB-A224-FC5BA2CB6AAF.jpeg

Nice capture! Got the cauliflowers here too he hee. View to South.

98368B84-67D1-4C18-94E4-051E1CBCE448.thumb.jpeg.033f91f686f6c2dc90bbe168fb1f7b93.jpeg

Is amazing how dazzling and pretty broccoli and cauliflower clouds can be lol.

(Also keeping my expectations low) 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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It was a decent week for us taking into account the forecast and warnings though I still think it could have been better for the country as a whole.

The first bit of storms happened in the morning of last Monday where it was very cloudy but there was some rumbles of thunder that got closer from the north. I wen't inside to say to my parents that there was thunder, and then was looking out one of the front upstairs windows with them closed. Then I saw a faint flash in the sky, but 3 to 4 seconds later there was a loud thunder clap which surprised me and caused my heart rate to rise quite high as that meant it was under a mile away '(Later found out by neighbours who saw it that it hit the ground so could have been a positive cloud to ground strike).' I wen't downstairs to say how close it was and my parents were also surprised at it, they said the electric wen't out for a few seconds as the strike happened.

Then there were a few more fairly close strikes before it cleared up, and we then wen't outside to have a look around and could hear really deep rumbles of thunder in the distance to our southeast. There was just rain and distant thunder for a bit, until the afternoon where another load of lightning came in. It was mostly cloud-cloud and intra-cloud, until I heard powerful deep rumbling thunder. I wen't in the landing to look out the window, and could see cloud to ground strikes in the distance to the NorthEast. Then I wen't downstairs to wait it out, and there were a few fairly close but not too loud strikes along with heavy rain until the thundery weather moved away and it brightened up into the late afternoon and evening.

There was nothing then on Tuesday until Wednesday came along, where most of the morning and early afternoon was thunder less, but me and my parents could tell that the sky looked unstable with loads of unstable AltoCumulus clouds and some Cumulus ones.

Here are a load of pictures I took of some storm clouds that then formed to our north on the late afternoon of last Wednesday.

IMG_0117.thumb.JPG.97740e71be3e207fb85be0fc9ac42f6e.JPGIMG_0116.thumb.JPG.29ab70e59176cf4013a1f0cf3014e8ec.JPGIMG_0115.thumb.JPG.4e1d88ee5665dd68b10f79b652a439c6.JPGIMG_0114.thumb.JPG.c145f2a74b36dd3e27260137fb9ba2eb.JPGIMG_0113.thumb.JPG.844efe369ae6b2e3ff31f52de0452004.JPGIMG_0112.thumb.JPG.c83c7e0c5859bb175142a79f8d117735.JPGIMG_0111.thumb.JPG.15a94072b43ebfe0f4e4d6989252fc87.JPGIMG_0110.thumb.JPG.7b21f57084a4bee26b591e59950a53d8.JPGIMG_0109.thumb.JPG.d858a609d3847d0408defc124ac8a99c.JPG

This was the last proper day of thunder that we had here, and there was a bit more around us and in the distance that formed later that evening and into the night that produced some nice displays. One or two storms in particular in the distance to the South and SouthWest were producing a lightning strike rate of 20 to 30 strikes in just 30 seconds!

There was some nice intra cloud lightning a long way in the distance then from the South to the West, which got closer as the night went on, but it started to die down in intensity. It got to a certain distance then quite quickly completely died out, and I have to say that my heart sank when this happened around 2:00am to 3:00am that night.😢

That was it then for the rest of the early hours, I stayed up for an hour or two just to be cautious, but nothing was happening so I made the decision to go to bed.

We also had some late evening storms sometime in June or July I think that produced some lightning and thunder which was closer but wasn't as frequent, and I wasn't able to report it, as well as some distant loud rumbles of thunder to our Northwest that wasn't forecast or reported by anyone on here a few weeks ago back in July.

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Really can't catch a break here (SE12) with weather coming from the SE or the SW. SE London has raised it's own personal storm shield for the last week.

It's like West London has some type of homing beacon for it! 🙂

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3 minutes ago, Chloe said:

Storm West London

I'm always under the breeding ground, be it they end up popping out to my NW, or in this case NE!

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Got a nice blob coming at me that looks like it's getting stronger on approach (looking VERY dark on the horizon 😄 ), there's also a warm breeze blowing at me from the same direction too, not sure if that's just in general or if it's coming from the storm?

Edited by Ryukai
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2 hours ago, Xanderp009 said:

Tommorrow as well

Screenshot_20200818_113213_com.android.chrome.jpg

You seem to like drawing shapes on maps! Nothing but a bit of frontal rainfall due tomorrow from what I can see.

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