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Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards


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A beautiful altocumulus castellanus sunrise this morning. 

Oo she's a beauty 

My first attempt at storm shots 🤷‍♂️ (Please don't judge 🤣) The cells are impressive tonight! 

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2 hours ago, STE1490 said:

I really do hope it tracks to South lincs we need the rain.m and still even after all this heat we are waiting for our first storm

Could you all help blow it into North Lincs too. We haven't had a good storm for a while now

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 14 Aug 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sat 15 Aug 2020

ISSUED 06:45 UTC Fri 14 Aug 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Similar to Thursday, a shortwave sliding WSW-wards across East Anglia into the Midlands will provide the focus for an uptick in elevated shower/thunderstorm activity over these areas during Friday morning. Most model guidance suggests this activity will decay towards midday, probably leaving quite a bit of cloud in its wake. In either case, there will likely be extensive low cloud, mist and sea fog across much of central and southern Britain, and how quickly this clears will determine how much surface heating can occur. 

Current thinking is cloud is most likely to break up across East Anglia and perhaps SE England, and diurnal heating will lead to the development of sea breeze convergence. Assuming this occurs, scattered slow-moving heavy showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening hours. CAPE is notably lower than previous days and combined with weak shear will preclude most severe hazards - hail up to 1.5cm in diameter is possible, but the main threat is the risk of flash flooding, given PWAT still in the 35-40mm range. An isolated tornado is possible where low-level vorticity along convergence zones gets ingested. A few isolated heavy showers or weak thunderstorms may also develop in parts of S / SW Ireland and W / NW Wales. If more substantial cloud breaks develop across southern England then the risk may also increase here too, but confidence is too low to justify a SLGT at this stage.

Overnight, minor shortwaves drifting eastwards from the near Continent continue to bring the risk of elevated showers and a few sporadic lightning strikes almost anywhere across central and southern Britain across to southern Ireland, although overall CAPE is a lot lower than previous nights so lightning will probably not be as prolific or widespread.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-08-14

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Seems some sort of storm managed to stagger inland, the OH heard a few rumbles earlier. And it gave up when it reached Norwich. Still, lots of nice crud following in it's wake with attendant drizzle, who needs sunshine eh? 

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well a rather dysmall paltry end to a fantastic heatwave, with only isolated narrow shortlived TS showers. no 4hour long thunderstorms like back in the 80's. We can blame ourselves, we really wrecked the climate

 

see you next summer

 

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29 minutes ago, Rascals Revenge said:

well a rather dysmall paltry end to a fantastic heatwave, with only isolated narrow shortlived TS showers. no 4hour long thunderstorms like back in the 80's. We can blame ourselves, we really wrecked the climate

 

see you next summer

 

We’ve had plenty of 4 hour or longer storms in this country since the 80s! You only have to go back to last year’s July event. Then there have been events like that or better each year before. The weather setup just hasn’t been quite right this year for storms of those durations in the south especially. Been a bad year for French imports. 

Edited by oliverek7
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Another heatwave passes and another pathetic end convectively speaking down here. Don't seem to be able to buy more than weakening storm that staggers towards Bournemouth and then falls apart irrespective of which direction is comes from, south, east, north or west always the same results.

Its a very IMBY post obviously and appreciate many have filled their boots this week, not to mention they were also the same locations that generally had multiple rounds TS activity in June. In fact drawing a line up from Central London to Liverpool and 50 miles either side it looks like it been borderline a terrific summer for storms.

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As others have picked up on the initial storms were really intense and those who saw these were lucky, but the atmosphere can only take so much before it becomes a post storm mess of mist and low cloud, with storms now only picking up scraps of energy albeit the moisture content is still high. We are really relying on cloud breaks now to 'stoke the fire' ... or narrow convergence lines. All eyes on the satellite for cloud breaks!!  

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Looks like another hot day up here in Stoke (despite the heatwave being 'over'). Though looking out side, you'd have to forgive me for thinking that we were about to be in for a right ol'storm.  Lots of very low level, dark grey, fast moving, skuddy cloud mess coming over from the Pennines. 😛 

Edited by Ryukai
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Ten minutes of what I suppose could be called convective drizzle, Still, as it was the remnants of storms crossing the N Sea I'm sure it could be called an epic TS.

That stretch has given me a hernia....

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33 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Another heatwave passes and another pathetic end convectively speaking down here. Don't seem to be able to buy more than weakening storm that staggers towards Bournemouth and then falls apart irrespective of which direction is comes from, south, east, north or west always the same results.

Its a very IMBY post obviously and appreciate many have filled their boots this week, not to mention they were also the same locations that generally had multiple rounds TS activity in June. In fact drawing a line up from Central London to Liverpool and 50 miles either side it looks like it been borderline a terrific summer for storms.

Same here, admittedly we did get one t storm in June, but here in Dover that's not much at all. We didn't even get any winter t storms this season, and that is a first since I moved here in 2013. We normally get three or four of those a year. 

Edited by alexisj9
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While my "Reigate Local High Pressure Zone" warded off the worst of yesterday's storms, I did enjoy watching the mass creep westwards over Epsom with continuous thunder and some lightning visible in the rain. It looked quite epic.

It seems hard to believe Estofex and Mr Finnis' forecasts with our grey overcast and cool air this morning! Still - I'll wait with anticipation. Happy hunting all!

Edited by StormLoser
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9 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

As others have picked up on the initial storms were really intense and those who saw these were lucky, but the atmosphere can only take so much before it becomes a post storm mess of mist and low cloud, with storms now only picking up scraps of energy albeit the moisture content is still high. We are really relying on cloud breaks now to 'stoke the fire' ... or narrow convergence lines. All eyes on the satellite for cloud breaks!!  

Here you are 😜

http://meteocentre.com/satellite/imagery.php?lang=fr&area=uk

Can see the stuff down south just bubbling away 😛 

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Yes, this year has been awful for TS down South. The frequency and potency, especially in terms of electrical activity, has been poor. Last night was probably the best night for down in the South East, with that Reading cell, but not even that compared to the storms that passed over/near me last year. Footage attached of one of July's amazing elevated storms, last year (courtesy of my brother). 

It would be interesting to look at the conditions, both regional and national, to see if there is any trend to why certain places were blessed with storms, and the South East was sucked dry. 

Personally, I think there wasn't enough moisture in the air in certain areas in the SE to feed the storms. I watched many TS over the past couple of days head straight towards me then just collapse. The interesting thing was that all the storms that either hit or passed near me came from a SW direction off the North Sea (not channel) and travelled NW through Essex and into London. In other words, they would gather moisture from the North Sea, intensify for a bit inland, then collapse when they came into drier air. 

In conclusion, I think this extreme heat actually was a detriment to storm development in the SE, drying out the air too much. I think these areas in Wales and NW England had more favourable conditions for storm development, with more moisture and low pressure areas to trigger these storms. 

Edited by Superstormuk
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9 hours ago, philglossop said:

Just driven home from Ashburton to Plymouth after night out and been following some very good lightning I'd guess towards Dartmouth. Its moving down the coast and we're getting some lightning here in Plymouth now 

Well it rumbled on here until 330am interrupting my sleep so I was up for nearly 24hrs yesterday (not a good thing at my age!). 

Just left with the misty murk you get post thunderstorm now- but hopefully I'll get some proper sleep tonight please!!!

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11 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

While my "Reigate Local High Pressure Zone" warded off the worst of yesterday's storms, I did enjoy watching the mass creep westwards over Epsom with continuous thunder and some lightning visible in the rain. It looked quite epic.

It seems hard to believe Estofex and Mr Finnis' forecasts with our grey overcast and cool air this morning! Still - I'll wait with anticipation. Happy hunting all!

If you look at the sat-pics and earth.nullschool you can see a small surface low just off of the coast.  No idea what forecasting system nullschool use but if you skip the time forwards it shows it traveling west until it meets the coast and then sliding SW down it and over Kent, hopefully it'll pull something 'nice' along behind it for you. 😛

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Satellite shows the cloud staring to thin over Kent and pats of the south east, sun should start to break through here by midday, though currently elsewhere in the south the low cloud looks pretty robust.  

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6 minutes ago, Superstormuk said:

Yes, this year has been awful for TS down South. The frequency and potency, especially in terms of electrical activity, has been poor. Last night was probably the best night for down in the South East, with that Reading cell, but not even that compared to the storms that passed over/near me last year. Footage attached of one of July's amazing elevated storms, last year (courtesy of my brother). 

It would be interesting to look at the conditions, both regional and national, to see if there is any trend to why certain places were blessed with storms, and the South East was sucked dry. 

Personally, I think there wasn't enough moisture in the air in certain areas in the SE to feed the storms. I watched many TS over the past couple of days head straight towards me then just collapse. The interesting thing was that all the storms that either hit or passed near me came from a SW direction off the North Sea (not channel) and travelled NW through Essex and into London. In other words, they would gather moisture from the North Sea, intensify for a bit inland, then collapse when they came into drier air. 

In conclusion, I think this extreme heat actually was a detriment to storm development in the SE, drying out the air too much. I think these areas in Wales and NW England had more favourable conditions for storm development, with more moisture and low pressure areas to trigger these storms. 

I think it was more to do with a complete lack of shear in the environment to aid storm organisation and longevity.

As you can see from my photo of the "Basingstoke cell" - it was largely outflow dominant with an arching gust-front which blew itself out and collapsed not long after.

024B50A7-955B-4CC6-B9B6-290B439CD65F1.jpeg

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Just now, Chris.R said:

Still too hot and boring here. Want  more storms. Been 4 days now.

Wow, 15 storms isn’t enough? Try 0.5 storms. Mind you apparently lightning struck the mast right behind our flat yesterday at about 13:30 . I wasn’t there but OH says it was simultaneous flash and bang, then she said she could smell burning in the air 😮

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i’ve only had 5 storms this year. Only had a storm on Monday night nothing else. I was expecting more from this week.

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1 minute ago, Azazel said:

I think it was more to do with a complete lack of shear in the environment to aid storm organisation and longevity.

As you can see from my photo of the "Basingstoke cell" - it was largely outflow dominant with an arching gust-front which blew itself out and collapsed not long after.

024B50A7-955B-4CC6-B9B6-290B439CD65F1.jpeg

I don’t think the excessive heat has helped though. The storms yesterday and the day previous were so elevated as they passed over Surrey, Hants and parts of Wiltshire that they may as well have just been regular showers. Not photogenic at all (although the rumblings outside of the rain bands were nice to listen to). ‘Summers day’ thunder is what I would call it, (like the scene in superman with the combine harvester lol)

Looking to the next few days I think the storms will be more interesting in our area, albeit less technically severe

 

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