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Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards


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12z AROME has storms breaking out over the W Mids & Wales in the early afternoon, followed by more slightly further east in the evening. 

 

preciprate_20200809_12_024.thumb.jpg.e436a5583212161c492dbf489e8853eb.jpg

preciprate_20200809_12_031.thumb.jpg.6ea97315fdd8d3980f26371e2015b776.jpg

 

 

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A beautiful altocumulus castellanus sunrise this morning. 

Oo she's a beauty 

My first attempt at storm shots 🤷‍♂️ (Please don't judge 🤣) The cells are impressive tonight! 

Posted Images

5 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

I don’t like how all of metcheck’s thunderstorm advisories have the highest risk in the west, even for Wednesday night.... seriously we really need something in the SE. Hope this changes nearer the time. 😬 

I dont want it weds eve, as will be sat on a rib looking after sailing dinghies 

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2 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

12z AROME has storms breaking out over the W Mids & Wales in the early afternoon, followed by more slightly further east in the evening. 

 

preciprate_20200809_12_024.thumb.jpg.e436a5583212161c492dbf489e8853eb.jpg

preciprate_20200809_12_031.thumb.jpg.6ea97315fdd8d3980f26371e2015b776.jpg

 

 

EURO4 is very similar.

euro4.thumb.png.cbe86fcc61e542943497fa54f32d0c6b.png

 

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1 hour ago, GeordieX9v said:

I've got towers just off to my east

Hi, yes I've been watching them too...nice high based Ac Cas towers, some bright echoes on radar....a shame they're offshore heading away from us

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8 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

12z AROME has storms breaking out over the W Mids & Wales in the early afternoon, followed by more slightly further east in the evening. 

 

preciprate_20200809_12_024.thumb.jpg.e436a5583212161c492dbf489e8853eb.jpg

preciprate_20200809_12_031.thumb.jpg.6ea97315fdd8d3980f26371e2015b776.jpg

 

 

 

5 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

EURO4 is very similar.

euro4.thumb.png.cbe86fcc61e542943497fa54f32d0c6b.png

 

UKV 12z run from earlier:

9AEAFE65-9320-4C94-9EA2-52E60B54B515.thumb.png.7d9943f7f133ca5c149423d85cd5a56c.png5DB55D46-4ABD-4D54-8CED-C0ED967AB7F2.thumb.png.204c334d1564c794407fe25100731227.png69322AEA-4C25-40EC-B45F-97916A576441.thumb.png.fd3d71d108ec4a6dc81f0153d516009b.png

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1 minute ago, Zak M said:

And here's a GIF of that AROME modelled satellite imagery:

anim_izi4.gif

Initiation well north of a line from London and south Wales once again, maybe one day Herts will get a good storm again....enjoy further north especially north west England which looks likely to be in the sweet spot again 😀 

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Fair to say I’m starting to get the hump big style with all Midlands northwards bovine pat 😜 might need to apply for membership in the no storms moaners club thread 😂

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5 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

 blimey that looks a right Boom !

5pm:

aromehd-54-28-0.thumb.png.25a91c17939b5309c507de659a6321fb.png

1 hour later:

aromehd-54-29-0.thumb.png.1e6af82444f705d8d5b17d14b2b4d4bc.png

Very explosive development shown on there.
@Allseasons-si I tried slowing it down but it didn't work 🤪

Edited by Zak M
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2 minutes ago, Harry said:

Fair to say I’m starting to get the hump big style with all Midlands northwards bovine pat 😜 might need to apply for membership in the no storms moaners club thread 😂

Could you send me a link?

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7 minutes ago, Zak M said:

And here's a GIF of that AROME modelled satellite imagery:

anim_izi4.gif

I had to slow that down because it was a blink and miss it affair...😜

anim_fcf0.thumb.gif.2c33ab9c90330ab1db2f18f704c5013f.gif

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8 minutes ago, Harry said:

Fair to say I’m starting to get the hump big style with all Midlands northwards bovine pat 😜 might need to apply for membership in the no storms moaners club thread 😂

Cant get my head around how poor it looks for CS/SE given it's a plume type scenario what are we potentially missing other than luck?

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Current models have midlands wales as a direct hit but ukv and euro4 are further west so its not a given just yet!!!one thing for sure is its going to be a hot one for midlands east anglia and south east till thursday at least so the energy is there in the atmosphere ready to go booom

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10 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Getting rather excited now, prepped the car for tomorrow, clock off at 4pm, straight out into the action. 

Yep, I'll be prepping the car tomorrow, hoping for something close to dusk up here to capture night lightning

Models linked look really encouraging, but it'll be a nowcast by the afternoon!

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To think this Summer wasn't looking too good for storms yet the next few days some of us could end up seeing some of the biggest storms in a while. Looking rather promising

Edited by TJS1998Tom
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Just now, Rapodo said:

Not sure if its just me but feel like humidity has really increased in Bournemouth this evening.

same here in southampton it went from ok to ewww so sticky

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6 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

This is that white blob over Surrey 😮FCF9E518-ECCC-476D-B88C-63C8D48EA6FA.thumb.jpeg.9c62a5fc4929381996e3e0a38ab83250.jpeg

Think I'm somewhere near to or under that lot. It's getting thick up above, and I can see a few towers in the gaps. It's about to be another glorious sunset. My favourite sunsets always involve mid-level thundery looking cloud!

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