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Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards


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1 minute ago, Lance M said:

You must only be a rare visitor to this thread to ask that!

They are running jokes that are now becoming serious business. Basically areas that are now beyond storm-starved.

COS and TOD (Cone of Doom and Triangle of Doom) are SE Essex/Suffolk @Paul Sherman will be able to confirm.

SOR (Shield of Resistance) is a newer one and it's basically central south (Hants, Dorset, Sussex, south coast in general). I'm inside the SOR, hence I haven't seen a single proper thunderstorm all year!

thank you and yeah ive not been on the formums for more that 2 1/2 months and yeah we deffo need to break the SOR today lol

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A beautiful altocumulus castellanus sunrise this morning. 

Oo she's a beauty 

My first attempt at storm shots 🤷‍♂️ (Please don't judge 🤣) The cells are impressive tonight! 

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4 minutes ago, thunderhead 2005 said:

The predicted Arome Chart isn't 100% accurate at 2pm it shows storms in NW Wales but there is nothing

Nothing here either, less than 50% cloud cover.

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Explosive development going on east of Bournemouth on the sea front. Just visually seen cloud shooting high very fast came from nowhere in minutes. Looks very high 

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I tell a lie. I've been out into the garden (dangerous stuff with the heat, the rhinos and giraffes around) and the cloud is bubbling nicely now. The base looks quite high, though.

Perhaps at last we'll be lucky?  Oh - just seen Ozzie's thoughts. I'm now 'on watch' (when our new kitten lets me...)

Edited by StormLoser
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1 minute ago, Vestan said:

I thought it was the COS - Cone of Silence?

I think you might be right there. The use of COD and TOD today seems to have confused/thrown me in the heat. 😄

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4 minutes ago, Lance M said:

You must only be a rare visitor to this thread to ask that!

They are running jokes that are now becoming serious business. Basically areas that are now beyond storm-starved.

COS and TOD (Cone of Doom and Triangle of Doom) are SE Essex/Suffolk @Paul Sherman will be able to confirm.

SOR (Shield of Resistance) is a newer one and it's basically central south (Hants, Dorset, Sussex, south coast in general). I'm inside the SOR, hence I haven't seen a single proper thunderstorm all year!

Ahh, got ya. Used to be a regular on here, but not so much now. Thanks mate. 

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5 minutes ago, Ndc Ozzie said:

14:00 Discussion Update

Latest Surface observations have shown temperatures have reached the low 30s across parts of SE England and Southern England have reached 28-31C. The 11Z Herstmonceux Ascent has a surface parcel lifted given the surface and DP's and over 2,500 j/Kg of CAPE. There is little environmental forcing or ascent however to trigger any convection. The Ascent is a little dry, but not overly so. This implies that the atmosphere over England & Wales is storing
large amounts of CAPE.

The Herstmonceux ascent indicates that T-Storms when they do develop have the potential to become intense, with tops to over 40,000 ft or to around -60C or 180mbs or slightly above.

In order to release this we will need some low level local ascent or convergence or we will need some larger scale atmospheric lift or ascent.

The local ascent may occur over parts of Southern and Central England later this afternoon. Mesoscale models suggest some low level confluence will extend to around 925mbs and come together over parts of the Thames Valley, West and NW of London during the late afternoon and evening as the current ESE flow backs more NE over the Midlands, and veers South to SE over parts of Southern England. This suggests that focused ascent will occur and large intense thunderstorms can develop and move slowly WNW in the flow at 850mbs. 850mb Theta-W is also 20-22C across Southern England, much of Wales and into the Midlands too. These storms will be intense but quite scattered.

To the South - Airmass imagery indicates more substantial synoptic scale ascent and vorticity is moving north assoc with a well marked shortwave trough moving north. T-Storms have died back this morning during the Diurnal minima over France, but this area is likely to see further intense storms develop through the afternoon and evening and as the trough moves north it will further augment the ascent over Southern England and further intense T-Storms will likely develop at times through the evening and night over Southern PArts.

Models are all over the place with regards to where storms break out and individual detail should not be taken too literally. The models are really struggling to resolve the complex thermodynamic structure given their vertical resolution and the rather constant changes and ongoing modification which T-Storms themselves develop.

The steering flow is rather poor from the South , so imports from France seem rather unlikely - however as the upper trough moves north it will overrun the theta-W plume and provide some larger scale ascent and spin. Again further intense storms are likely to develop and break out over Southern England during the night, either routed to the surface or from the 850mb level . Many places will miss the storms but where they occur they are likely to release very large amounts of CAPE, Dangerous C/G Lightning, Hail, Torrential rain which may easily give 50-100mm of rain in a very short period of time.

Whilst this outlook expires at 06:00 further heavy and intense thunderstorms are likely to develop across Southern England during Thursday which may be more located in Southern Counties of England during the afternoon as a confluence/ convergence zone develops over Southern England.

PJB UKWW

almighty cheers ring out across the south of the M4 for tomorrow and the met office is forecasting thundery rain for the south tomorrow too

Edited by Gordon Webb
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6 minutes ago, Ndc Ozzie said:

PJB on ukww has new update

Most of us on here can’t access that forum. Be a good sport and post it here please (with attending chart if that’s available) 😊

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Looking towards Milton Keynes. Absolutely humongous towers over there, pictures don’t do it’s justice.

I suspect that will be the first place to go bang this afternoon.

92B08EF2-B3B9-46B1-AA9C-685F30655F58.jpeg

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6 minutes ago, Lance M said:

You must only be a rare visitor to this thread to ask that!

They are running jokes that are now becoming serious business. Basically areas that are now beyond storm-starved.

COS and TOD (Cone of Doom and Triangle of Doom) are SE Essex/Suffolk @Paul Sherman will be able to confirm.

SOR (Shield of Resistance) is a newer one and it's basically central south (Hants, Dorset, Sussex, south coast in general). I'm inside the SOR, hence I haven't seen a single proper thunderstorm all year!

 Not quite. The SOR is exclusive to @Mapantz The rest of the Hants, Dorset, Wilts area is the POS 😆 

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My COS/TOD/SOR post on previous page has been edited and now should be accurate 😂

Now...back to the serious business!

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Just now, matt111 said:

 Not quite. The SOR is exclusive to @Mapantz The rest of the Hants, Dorset, Wilts area is the POS 😆 

Okay...I can't keep up either now 😄 🤪

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Just now, Lance M said:

My COS/TOD/SOR post on previous page has been edited and now should be accurate 😂

Now...back to the serious business!

The serious business of watching everything avoid the aforementioned locations? 

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14 minutes ago, thunderhead 2005 said:

at 3pm there should be storms around the wilts, bristol, glouc and swindon on the predicted arome

Not sure where you're seeing that?

lool.thumb.png.b30b3447ccb9e588fd96f2b77a6c5ae8.png

 

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