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Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards

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Just now, Ndc Ozzie said:

Blimey temps shooting up here quicker than yesterday just check 10am reading and it already at 27.1 and dp 18c

exactly the same here too, I'm at 24 and the sea mist only cleared about 1 hour ago 

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13 minutes ago, T4Toby said:

Not in South Wales though. we usually only get 3 or 4 Here in Swansea but this year so far we've had 7

And here in south east wales we've had 0

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A good 4-5c  up on yesterdays temps  at this time   hopefully  it may add to a powder keg  situation come later 

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Just now, T4Toby said:

exactly the same here too, I'm at 24 and the sea mist only cleared about 1 hour ago 

Low of 19.6 and first day with now low cloud that I was aware of as was up at 8

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27.1 at the mo humid but with some nice breeze passing by evey other 10mins

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1 minute ago, Thebeastfromtheeast said:

And here in south east wales we've had 0

where abouts in south east wales are you? 

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 Yesterday evening a close miss storm passed by with a stiff breeze coming out of the storm. That breeze felt like walking into a sauna.I interpret this as down drafts pulling down moist air from the elevated mixed layer into the warm boundary layer.
 We have what looks like an MCS out over the bay of Biscay and parts of France as a shortwave low plowed into Spain and begins moving northwards. I think we can expect some mixing of the boundary layer and elevated mixed layer over France as a result. Mid level wind flows suggest that more mixed air might arrive in the UK this evening and this alters things over night.
 Thunderstorm development looks likely along the M4 corridor late afternoon with further storms developing at the outflow boundary s of these storms. From modelling this looks like parts of south wales, south west midlands and perhaps even down to Exeter (Over the MetOffice forecasters). Later as the mid and upper level disturbance moves up from France towards the UK we can expect storms moving up from the south. I would not exclude anywhere in the south , midlands, Wales and East Anglia over night into the early hours of tomorrow.

LCL Difference.png

nmmukwind18.png

nmmuk3hrprecip.png

nmmuk3hrprecip27.png

gfs_pvort2_eur27.png

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45 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Oh no look at what the met office has done to their warning coverage ⚠️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️ Only just clinging on to London

81FC8C16-E1D5-4BF0-BACE-210B15102E93.png

Yup, it's removed us now as well although any chance was marginal. Weirdly i've got more confidence now we've been removed though, the met curse is lifted. 🤣

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Well, what a night it looked again for the Northwesterners and Scottish folk. Slightly jealous, but I managed to find time at least to drive down by Milton Keynes to see that amazing Oxford cell and more that formed straight after. 

Couldnt believe being able to see the Staffordshire storm so well, and also seeing loads of meteors along with the flashes! One of them moments where I just stopped and appreciated the wonders that nature gives to us. 

Good luck once again to all today. I won’t be able to chase this afternoon however due to work. So make the best out of it everyone. I’ll be free in the late evening, but by then it could be too late and far to intercept anything. 

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Just now, Britneyfan said:

Hit 29 degrees already, shocking heat 

where abouts are you

location wise

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Just now, viking_smb said:

where abouts in south east wales are you? 

About 5 miles north of Caerphilly mate, it really has been depressing here for storms this year and i'm not really getting my hopes up for today either.

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1 minute ago, Sam Jackson said:

where abouts are you

location wise

Not op but I'm in Swindon and it's 29 deg here already

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Just now, slinky1989 said:

Not op but I'm in Swindon and it's 29 deg here already

and its just starting the oven only getting hotter 🥵🥵

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1 minute ago, Thebeastfromtheeast said:

About 5 miles north of Caerphilly mate, it really has been depressing here for storms this year and i'm not really getting my hopes up for today either.

north cardiff for me (heath) I'm quite worried about this evening as we have dinghy racing at CBYC, and i'm on rescue, so will be interesting, so will be chatting to race officer to get his thoughts as may cancel on safety grounds

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1 minute ago, slinky1989 said:

Not op but I'm in Swindon and it's 29 deg here already

Yep  very hot  at the moment   im from further north  but still just hit 28c    

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4 minutes ago, BrickFielder said:

 Yesterday evening a close miss storm passed by with a stiff breeze coming out of the storm. That breeze felt like walking into a sauna.I interpret this as down drafts pulling down moist air from the elevated mixed layer into the warm boundary layer.
 We have what looks like an MCS out over the bay of Biscay and parts of France as a shortwave low plowed into Spain and begins moving northwards. I think we can expect some mixing of the boundary layer and elevated mixed layer over France as a result. Mid level wind flows suggest that more mixed air might arrive in the UK this evening and this alters things over night.
 Thunderstorm development looks likely along the M4 corridor late afternoon with further storms developing at the outflow boundary s of these storms. From modelling this looks like parts of south wales, south west midlands and perhaps even down to Exeter (Over the MetOffice forecasters). Later as the mid and upper level disturbance moves up from France towards the UK we can expect storms moving up from the south. I would not exclude anywhere in the south , midlands, Wales and East Anglia over night into the early hours of tomorrow.

LCL Difference.png

nmmukwind18.png

nmmuk3hrprecip.png

nmmuk3hrprecip27.png

gfs_pvort2_eur27.png

with the mixed air that will arrive tonight, how will it affect the storms?

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Ello, new storm warnings for Friday and Sunday?? 

33A3BD3F-8FA0-49F4-8BA8-73A8A40CA7D3.png

38185E79-07A5-4FC9-BCBA-071D1DDDA2E4.png

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Posted (edited)

New Fri/Sat/Sun Thunderstorm Warnings:

Friday Writeup:

Areas of showers and thunderstorms associated with a hot and humid air mass stranded across the southern half of the UK are expected to continue through Friday, and not solely during daylight hours. Many areas encompassed by this warning will miss the thunderstorms altogether, but where they occur, heavy rain (20-30mm in an hour, and possibly as much as 50mm in 2 to 3 hours), frequent lightning, and in some places large hail are all potential hazards. The greatest chance of impactful showers is expected to be in the southern half of this warning area, where afternoon showers are more likely to be slow moving and prolonged..

image.thumb.png.70957c925a1aef4e5bd32bc30b45b3a3.png

Sunday Writeup:

Areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop on Sunday, with some persisting into the late evening. A similar day on Monday, though the thunderstorms more likely to clear earlier in the evening. Many areas within the warning area will miss the thunderstorms altogether, but where they occur , the heavy rain (15-25mm) is expected in an hour, and as much as 40mm in 2 or 3 hours. Thunderstorms are likely to be accompanied by hail, lightning and gusty winds.

image.thumb.png.3ae82d27439e11d55bb8c12a5c67ba84.png

 

 

Edited by Jamiee
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Holy Cow Met Office Warnings until Monday For most the south 

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2 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

New Fri/Sat/Sun Thunderstorm Warnings:

Friday Writeup:

Areas of showers and thunderstorms associated with a hot and humid air mass stranded across the southern half of the UK are expected to continue through Friday, and not solely during daylight hours. Many areas encompassed by this warning will miss the thunderstorms altogether, but where they occur, heavy rain (20-30mm in an hour, and possibly as much as 50mm in 2 to 3 hours), frequent lightning, and in some places large hail are all potential hazards. The greatest chance of impactful showers is expected to be in the southern half of this warning area, where afternoon showers are more likely to be slow moving and prolonged..

image.thumb.png.70957c925a1aef4e5bd32bc30b45b3a3.png

Sunday Writeup:

Areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop on Sunday, with some persisting into the late evening. A similar day on Monday, though the thunderstorms more likely to clear earlier in the evening. Many areas within the warning area will miss the thunderstorms altogether, but where they occur , the heavy rain (15-25mm) is expected in an hour, and as much as 40mm in 2 or 3 hours. Thunderstorms are likely to be accompanied by hail, lightning and gusty winds.

image.thumb.png.3ae82d27439e11d55bb8c12a5c67ba84.png

 

 

Just scrape into the NE of both of those warning areas

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Just now, T4Toby said:

Holy Cow Met Office Warnings until Monday For most the south 

Yep. So more chances to come hopefully. 

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13 minutes ago, BrickFielder said:

 Yesterday evening a close miss storm passed by with a stiff breeze coming out of the storm. That breeze felt like walking into a sauna.I interpret this as down drafts pulling down moist air from the elevated mixed layer into the warm boundary layer.
 We have what looks like an MCS out over the bay of Biscay and parts of France as a shortwave low plowed into Spain and begins moving northwards. I think we can expect some mixing of the boundary layer and elevated mixed layer over France as a result. Mid level wind flows suggest that more mixed air might arrive in the UK this evening and this alters things over night.
 Thunderstorm development looks likely along the M4 corridor late afternoon with further storms developing at the outflow boundary s of these storms. From modelling this looks like parts of south wales, south west midlands and perhaps even down to Exeter (Over the MetOffice forecasters). Later as the mid and upper level disturbance moves up from France towards the UK we can expect storms moving up from the south. I would not exclude anywhere in the south , midlands, Wales and East Anglia over night into the early hours of tomorrow.

LCL Difference.png

nmmukwind18.png

nmmuk3hrprecip.png

nmmuk3hrprecip27.png

gfs_pvort2_eur27.png

Thank you as ever @BrickFielder some hope for us yet!! The lightning wizard chart particularly interesting.

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Is that all due to colder uppers running over the top of the current bettyswollocksness we currently have at ground-level?

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