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Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards


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A beautiful altocumulus castellanus sunrise this morning. 

Oo she's a beauty 

My first attempt at storm shots¬†ūü§∑‚Äć‚ôāÔłŹ (Please don't judge ūü§£) The cells are impressive tonight!¬†

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13 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Anyone know at what temp the cap would erode?

Over SE England, around 35-36C, but profiles are very dry aloft

tephi.thumb.png.6a16c657fb7ca710009ffbeece8f79d1.png

Edited by staplehurst
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very cool and cloudy here today, winds from the east so feeling very fresh, looking at the week ahead cant see much change as the easterly wind keeping the cloud around and temps down

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5 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

Over SE England, around 39-40C

tephi.thumb.png.6a16c657fb7ca710009ffbeece8f79d1.png

Lol thats the end of that for anything SB today.....

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1 hour ago, Xanderp009 said:

Forecasts taking the triangle of doom seriously i think you'll all be hoping for zak m's supervision

Screenshot_20200809_124942_com.android.chrome.jpg

Pretty sure the COS / ToD and POS are factored into forecasts nowadays ūüėäūüėāūüė≥

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Low cloud finally burning off here revealing bright blue skies.

Not a lot of instability going on higher up by the looks of it at the moment. Since the thundery looking sky on Friday, it's been mainly pleasant blue skies or low cloud since.

But everything is still on it's slow journey north and the outlook is looking really good...but it looks like a complicated little setup to navigate over the next day or three.

Edited by Gord
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Beautiful sunny day here on the middle of Dartmoor,  but again a lot of middle skies instability. 

However its warmer towards the coast surprisingly 23c here, 27c back in Plymouth. 

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Just now, Mitch perrott said:

pretty sure south east wont get anything just the midlands again

 

Midlands looks unlikely to get anything to be fair. I think there could be some small showers but the risk there has been downgraded to very little, along with the far SE

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5 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Midlands looks unlikely to get anything to be fair. I think there could be some small showers but the risk there has been downgraded to very little, along with the far SE

Tbh, I think wales west of bridgend is more of a risk than us. but im not in work tomorrow so might go chasing if not too tired.

Edited by viking_smb
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10 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

No real change from what I've seen so far - as is often the case, tonight is a rather complex situation. The elevated mixed layer (EML) will cover most of England and Wales tonight, pushing north towards southern Scotland - so any minor upper forcing may just be enough to develop the odd rogue shower/thunderstorm almost anywhere. However, the main focus is across western Britain where upper forcing will be stronger as a couple of shortwave troughs move north. These help to cool and moisten the upper/mid-levels, generating more instability and encouraging lift.

Forecast profile for Wales (below) yields some quite deep elevated convection, IF profiles can moisten sufficiently (they are rather dry right now).

Wales.thumb.png.13fbe9392c17129977302f5fc074c4eb.png

This is most likely to occur as one of these shortwaves approaches. From what I can see there may be a minor shortwave (dashed magenta below) running north from north Wales / Midlands into northern England during the night, followed by a more substantial shortwave (blue line) that approaches Cornwall around midnight and heads into Wales late in the night.

explainer.thumb.png.e7aafb6db556878843ae891a386971b9.png

Elevated thunderstorms often develop along Theta-E ridges, and I've tried to identify the location of this through the night (right image) - notice how as an upper low develops near the Channel Islands, the ridge axis remains more-or-less locked here while it bulges more significantly westwards across Wales through the night. 

Essentially what you'd be looking for is where either of these troughs (left) overlap with the Theta-E ridge (right) for your best chance of elevated thunderstorms developing - but it is likely the more substantial trough will arrive quite late in the night, so activity may be fairly isolated until this stage.

Cool thanks mate, so by the looks of things, it wont arrive till about 6-7am then, where is the trough to now?

Edited by viking_smb
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1 minute ago, viking_smb said:

Cool, so by the looks of things, it wont arrive till about 6-7am then, where is to now?

Well, the Theta-E ridge will be over Wales for most of the night, so in theory a few showers/thunderstorms could develop at any time, but they are more likely towards the very end of the night and perhaps more widely in west Wales during Monday morning

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Thanks for that @staplehurst

yes you can see the trough on the latest UKMO fax chart for 06:00 tomorrow morning

fax24s.thumb.gif.61f3258e3f18eaf74ee7c8e13610c19a.gif

here is the latest PPN predictions for tomorrow afternoon/evening from the MO(Met Office)

1841839193_PPN0.thumb.png.cf497e5b0fc24d1d6fdd66aac9435832.png761700230_PPN1.thumb.png.3836f3dbb580fade473e1bb6df38d62b.png493389540_PPN2.thumb.png.d565f434f9d144eff7c547879ddd6e52.png772916811_PPN3.thumb.png.c5f7e3ff206893091a228f8ed2b4bf8b.png

the BBC has these showers/thunderstorms a little more west of the MO's predictions,it will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow,i finish work at 2pm tomorrow so i might have to chase west or stay put,we shall see.

 

 

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What are we saying for tomorrow day/evening? 

I would be up for a chase, but thinking perhaps Lincolnshire/Cambridgeshire would become quite favourable as the Easterly relaxes a little, and perhaps more especially so into Tuesday. Looking like tonight and tomorrow could just be the start of some major storms. 

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Hello all, hope everyone is doing alright! Question for the experts on here: 

So I've moved from Bucks to East Hants, but I'm back in South Bucks house-sitting and looking after the parent's old cat while they're away all week, am I right in saying I'd be better placed towards Portsmouth for some French imports, and better placed back up here in Bucks for some potential homegrown storms over the next week?! 

Fingers crossed for the storm drought in Bucks (probably since late July 2019) to come to an end this week, as things look fairly positive! What do you guys think? 

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2 minutes ago, UKSupercell said:

Hello all, hope everyone is doing alright! Question for the experts on here: 

So I've moved from Bucks to East Hants, but I'm back in South Bucks house-sitting and looking after the parent's old cat while they're away all week, am I right in saying I'd be better placed towards Portsmouth for some French imports, and better placed back up here in Bucks for some potential homegrown storms over the next week?! 

Fingers crossed for the storm drought in Bucks (probably since late July 2019) to come to an end this week, as things look fairly positive! What do you guys think? 

Bucks seems a pretty good bet, surely from there you can head down to the south coast pretty easy along the A34, or hop over to the M3 in under an hour?

From there you can also go west or NW depending on where things break out

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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27 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

What are we saying for tomorrow day/evening? 

I would be up for a chase, but thinking perhaps Lincolnshire/Cambridgeshire would become quite favourable as the Easterly relaxes a little, and perhaps more especially so into Tuesday. Looking like tonight and tomorrow could just be the start of some major storms. 

conditions here in sth lincs are certainly not conducive for storms right now, the easterly winds and low cloud have not budged all day, due to remain that way for a fair while yet, met office forecast says storm free for the entire week ahead, so storm chasing in this part of lincs i dont think will be worth it

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2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Bucks seems a pretty good bet, surely from there you can head down to the south coast pretty easy along the A34, or hop over to the M3 in under an hour?

From there you can also go west or NW depending on where things break out

Yeah, that's what I thought, I'm hoping so anyway. 

True, although for once I have nothing planned and am looking forward to just sitting out back with a book and chilling out. The M3 is 30 mins south but unfortunately my motor (which is a 200bhp 4x4 Jeep with A/T tyres that goes like the clappers) is in the local garage to be serviced on Tues, so Mum has insured me on her pansy Renault Scenic for the next few days!!!! It's a comfortable drive but let's just say the Jeep is better suited to chasing! 

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