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Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?


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18 minutes ago, Downpour said:

Agreed. Been a decent summer here. It's simply madness, however, to compare the summer in Surrey with that of Northern Ireland.

The climates of the two areas are so vastly different that it's an apples and pears scenario writ large. 

Agreed. March to 1st half of June, well documented as being very good throughout British Isles. 2nd half June, all of July very poor here in NI. Last week provided some late summer sun but back to poor again now. 

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Astonishing rebound in momentum transport that is behind the current spectacular synoptics and associated high impact weather. Both the heat, and also the powder keg potential for thunderstorms.

*** USING THE ECM TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN A HEATWAVE - A REVIEW *** I often make predictions based on models several days ahead, and then I find it useful to revisit these predictions after t

The reality is that NWP is wholly congregated on, but susceptible to be blindsided and over preoccupied by, the re-ignition of the low frequency tropical convective standing wave across Africa and the

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Here’s a few nice looking GEFS 6z members for early September, it’s not representative of the longer term outlook which is actually quite mixed but there are a few other members which try and build high pressure in across the u k..I still believe a north / south split is eventually probable with southern u k seeing a return of predominantly pleasant surface conditions whereas further north is cooler and more changeable from the Atlantic...BUT..we can’t rule out something more widely summer-like returning either!😉

00FF90CA-6905-49CD-AD26-8B131BF99291.thumb.png.377fe252c3f93507936c5141a997bc7d.png24633ABD-1FBB-472B-A3F0-11794D7A673D.thumb.png.27a8ad13f6f029ec1fc4ebf92e6d8265.png5C92A54E-51A4-4F59-9105-21E891FBDEB1.thumb.png.e87b5337f8f2903037eb10337721d729.png 

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Well GFS 12z seems to follow yesterday’s GEM 12z, bringing a settled spell to many earlier as of T192:

4CE14EA6-6F17-494D-8083-8427B7844F6F.thumb.png.31231c632be0203d949f8b717f661379.png

One to watch, I think, yesterday it wasn’t supported, maybe today it will be?

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13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well GFS 12z seems to follow yesterday’s GEM 12z, bringing a settled spell to many earlier as of T192:

4CE14EA6-6F17-494D-8083-8427B7844F6F.thumb.png.31231c632be0203d949f8b717f661379.png

One to watch, I think, yesterday it wasn’t supported, maybe today it will be?

Would be nice to end summer on a high note after what has been a pretty poor summer for the most part (at least up here anyway).

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GEM doubling down on this, T192:

81349843-9525-4EA1-84EA-17097867D015.thumb.png.f55106fee25db960bb33d927c44d01c7.png

There was quite a bit of negativity in here this morning, I would suggest the 12s don’t entirely back that up, I’m still holding firm for a warm up on the turn of the month...

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11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM similar to what we’ve seen with the other models, T168

1890919C-A783-41E8-BA98-18B12B61DB0D.thumb.gif.95a7038619b512abaff531ade3ea65fe.gif

Settling down under warm conditions, what’s not to like?

It’s really not warm at all, after Thursday it’s a hard task for London to see high teens so you can only imagine how poor it is for those further north. Temperatures looking well below average, even when pressure is rising next weekend it remains cool with cool air trapped, some particularly cool nights would be in offing.

8389555C-CAA1-4102-A47F-541F69841ED1.thumb.gif.cb6e333dbc5ec965505eab3f301c0ccb.gif

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ECM takes its time, but by T192 T216 pushes some kind of settled pattern over the UK:

FB609FDB-DAC4-4443-93FF-257C0AB28207.thumb.gif.325591b9f330f56c7e7935d86b20753e.gif76C06935-283E-4F99-8BA0-97B972DE66BB.thumb.gif.a30056595fbad76c1dc1cefa0f45e704.gif

Will be interesting to look at the clusters later, I wouldn’t be surprised if this settled outlook is becoming the form horse...

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T276 on the clusters, various options in play, but the only one I really don’t like is Cluster 4:

01F46F47-53D3-45B3-A6CF-0C7EA15FADB5.thumb.png.23455d142bb046954f57bc168f14cbab.png

Plenty of support for something more settled as we start September. 

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35 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

T276 on the clusters, various options in play, but the only one I really don’t like is Cluster 4:

01F46F47-53D3-45B3-A6CF-0C7EA15FADB5.thumb.png.23455d142bb046954f57bc168f14cbab.png

Plenty of support for something more settled as we start September. 

Agreed on the bad apple in the basket. Looks like mild and probably on and off wet for the rest, though. Still, early September in the UK should be thus. A mixture of sunny and rainy but generally mild. Hoping Late September will bring some calmed down second harvest warmth (an Indian Summer would be a treat)

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There might be a brief lull in the unsettled weather over the next ten days if the models are to be believed. I guess for many it might be encouraging that it is the bank holiday weekend where the models are suggesting that we might see a ridge of high pressure move in. However no real signs of anything warm and the high currently modelled would probably be quite chilly, especially at night.

image.thumb.gif.3e6f8076918f8f34fa6f193a84b15eeb.gifimage.thumb.gif.521b6b0c036051bb4c5426c8fab80f78.gifimage.thumb.gif.c14483c8cc8388611e761e0773d97059.gif   

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22 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Another zonal ECM ops run, this time the whole of the UK looks like joining the NW in this rotten Summer. 

Very stormy mid week.

Yep. We’re going to have to sit tight into September for an Indian summer I reckon. Still hopeful of an improvement into September.

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The GEFS 0z mean doesn’t look to bad beyond the mid range (around T+168 hours) and especially further south longer term but in the meantime it’s looking quite unsettled and unseasonably windy at times, as it has been in recent days.😉
682F25B1-9EBE-4FFF-8BBD-F8172ECA5204.thumb.png.e3077ba0293e13910ad6d096fe24f9db.pngF515B1A2-1824-404F-8493-0D257B0F85A1.thumb.png.c26fb515b17cf0eed8df8195fddc0770.pngB0D6370B-24E5-44EE-9823-96B4F15CE690.thumb.png.55007a7e2273d6e6b269a70c7a403c22.png97305F87-79DA-4182-82F1-D2D1C60D63F5.thumb.png.9f11f24cecc54baf0d8354d35922901d.pngB878D77E-0EA8-4FB6-88CB-A2E8D03BFC19.thumb.png.f544de9958a92b8e1ff8f2ff0e2b9676.png3D5DA27E-8D3C-43C6-979C-DA37BA659A8A.thumb.png.07f3ebf8b01c1495feb1ec9d2bf22519.png

Edited by JON SNOW
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Well im still not seeing anything settled for early September on these charts other then an odd transient ridge. Theres too much energy coming out of America, and when you add into the mix some tropical storms/hurricanes in the Caribbean that are likely to impact on us, eventually, then the likelyhood of a lasting settled spell is, imho, remote.

 

814day.03 sept.gif

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Clusters seem to be taking the flatter route this morning for the turn of the month

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020082200_240.

Most ensembles still trying to bring a ridge to central Europe in sometime in the first week, with some influence over the SE half of the UK

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020082200_300.

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On 20/08/2020 at 15:11, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Possibly another storm next week, certainly worth keeping an eye on B46870F6-EBDA-4C0B-A23B-FE051591CAD3.thumb.png.1fa41a727bcf5ebe1cd7ae73d6ed5f67.pngFED92750-BAE3-496D-8B65-9B8EDB1CC5A8.thumb.png.2612978c18e59d05c601f51b4791f7c0.png

81E002B3-AA32-46C1-93B1-DD6545D6F56E.thumb.gif.5a2ce54eab5b7ec10fd94a5c62604a24.gif6B768B14-3B40-48EB-8A97-7F355C3FAB2E.thumb.png.864f50e34bab710cab1d99e71a823bfe.png Tuesday still looking like the next storm moves in 💨 

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Seems to be little focus on the midweek potential storm. Just checked the GFS and gusts of 60-70mph whilst highly unusual at this time of year, would also do a lot of damage with trees in full leaf.

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GEM 12z is a decent evolution to settled conditions, would be a nice way to start September. No real heat, agreed, but it is a decent run, and probably about the best end of the envelope of possible solutions in the model output in the 10 day range:

anim_vga9.gif

GFS 12z is awful.

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