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Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?


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Astonishing rebound in momentum transport that is behind the current spectacular synoptics and associated high impact weather. Both the heat, and also the powder keg potential for thunderstorms.

*** USING THE ECM TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN A HEATWAVE - A REVIEW *** I often make predictions based on models several days ahead, and then I find it useful to revisit these predictions after t

The reality is that NWP is wholly congregated on, but susceptible to be blindsided and over preoccupied by, the re-ignition of the low frequency tropical convective standing wave across Africa and the

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.5c6b83a0ab6312c2a2411b2ff723f251.pngimage.thumb.png.9bc88d1ecad126c09b92c0d2a9ff1104.png

    Models flirting with the idea of the Atlantic low stalling a little and dragging up a bit more warm and humid air for a time next week. Doesn't look like bringing excess heat at this stage, with plenty of rain around - nor being long lasted as the low eventually moves through.

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  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Intresting as ive just taken a look at the 00z gfs ensembles and the very warm conditions look to continue well into next week!!if the 12zs show the same i think we might be on to something here!!☀️🌡🔥!!well done ukmo if the heat does get extended even further!!

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  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Intresting as ive just taken a look at the 00z gfs ensembles and the very warm conditions look to continue well into next week!!if the 12zs show the same i think we might be on to something here!!☀️🌡🔥!!well done ukmo if the heat does get extended even further!!

    Also Tamara who has been spot on with her musings so far.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Euro4 and gfs way off the mark already in regards to the temps across eastern and central england!!low cloud has us at only 17 or 18 right now!!and it dont look like burning off anytime soon!!was meant to be 23 or 24 degrees by now!!

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  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Euro4 and gfs way off the mark already in regards to the temps across eastern and central england!!low cloud has us at only 17 or 18 right now!!and it dont look like burning off anytime soon!!was meant to be 23 or 24 degrees by now!!

    It's 22C here, and 25C at Shoreham!

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  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    It's 22C here, and 25C at Shoreham!

    Lucky you!!i think it was meant to be those sort of temperatures more widely across england but the low cloud is a real nuisance!!

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  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Just looking at the latest models I’m thinking we could be scooping up further continental / tropical air next week as a trough becomes very slow moving or anchored to the W / SW...what an August this is turning into but mainly for the S / SE!😁😜🔥🌩️☀️:shok:

    Edited by JON SNOW
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  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    4 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

    Just looking at the latest models I’m thinking we could be scooping up further continental / tropical air next week as a trough becomes very slow moving or anchored to the W / SW...what an August this is turning into but mainly for the S / SE!😁😜🔥🌩️☀️:shok:

    Yep it looks like it . Most models have that low further west like the Ukmo / Navgem last night . Gfs has joined them this morning too .

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  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    51 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Lucky you!!i think it was meant to be those sort of temperatures more widely across england but the low cloud is a real nuisance!!

    May I ask a favour please?

    Can you put your nearest town in your info,?

    many thanks

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  • Location: Sompting, west sussex 10 miles west from brighton
  • Location: Sompting, west sussex 10 miles west from brighton

    One to watch 20th august to 22/23 august wouldn’t be surprised to see a plume in this period for 2 maybe 3 days one to watch in coming days, I would say just a small chance at the moment

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  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Hmm not many comments on the 6z..I wonder why??...anyhoo, next Thursday looks ok but beyond that it’s preety much certificate 18 for summer fans..as for the heatwave?.,what heatwave?..there’s NO heatwave ooop north!😜:shok:

    0E7DAFC8-45F3-4607-9D35-41D031084218.thumb.png.dd9a898b25c00303b13aa02ac6fc5272.png67A87A37-720C-4C9E-9998-B1C1467CE77C.thumb.png.1d1506aa74d5f3980f8305ee1bc81c08.png9939FFE5-4FC8-4726-B388-E9B8C1D4EC33.thumb.png.822478d1449148cabb89452bcc676ea2.png

    5F1CD5DA-1184-420D-9288-1C1327D9558B.jpeg

    Edited by JON SNOW
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  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    There is still considerable scope for the heat to return at least to southern Britain nxt week.. as the 6z follows on from its 00z suite!! So a definite cool down...but for how long remains the question?!

    95601FDB-DB05-452A-94FF-3335EC28BD97.png

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  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    Id call that (for t240) pretty good agreement , and IF the mean upper trough continues its Eastward progress then itll become decidedly cool and fresh in the run up to the Bank Holiday weekend. Maybe a ridge will follow thats exit and build in time for the BH ?

     

    gfs cool.png

    ecm cool 1.png

    814day.03 cool.gif

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  • Location: Glasgow
  • Location: Glasgow
    2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

    Id call that (for t240) pretty good agreement , and IF the mean upper trough continues its Eastward progress then itll become decidedly cool and fresh in the run up to the Bank Holiday weekend. Maybe a ridge will follow thats exit and build in time for the BH ?

     

    gfs cool.png

    ecm cool 1.png

    814day.03 cool.gif

    Mushyman, any chance of explaining what the different coloured lines are on the bottom chart?

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  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    1 hour ago, bomdabass said:

    Mushyman, any chance of explaining what the different coloured lines are on the bottom chart?

    I'll do it for him

    The green lines are the contour lines, at 500 mb approximately 18,000 ft. The red shows the difference from the long term averages, showing _ or + ve numbers.

    May we see your nearest town please it adds interest when you post about 'your' weather.

    Welcome to Net Weather, lots of interest about all kinds of weather and model outputs. Don't be afraid to ask, someone will usually be able to answer you.

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  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    Just has a few minutes of rain here in downtown East Ham and with the circulation coming up from the ESE I'm looking at NE France or Belgium for any storms so we'll see.

    Anyway, that's not what here is about...

    arpegeuk-41-27-0.png?13-17arpegeuk-41-51-0.png?13-18arpegeuk-41-75-0.png?13-18arpegeuk-41-99-0.png?13-18

    The next four days on Arpege and the story has changed slightly since last evening. As I mentioned yesterday, the current heat is dispelled north and west tomorrow and into Saturday but then we see a brief return of warmth on Sunday followed by a final clearance on Monday.

    arpegeuk-2-27-0.png?13-17arpegeuk-2-51-0.png?13-18arpegeuk-2-72-0.png?13-18

    The 500HPA tells the story - tomorrow a shallow LP off th east coast keeps the NE flow for many areas but right along the coast there's an offshore flow so some residual warmth. Further north, the Peaks and the Pennines offer some shelter to keep NW England warmer than other areas.

    On Saturday the onshore flow from the North Sea has shifted northward and there's a slack pressure gradient over the south and east so temperatures can start to rise again. By Sunday, that has switched from a NE to an E'ly flow so more of a continental influence so very warm air from Germany and the Low Countries can move back across the south so 27c is perfectly possible but with an enhanced risk of storms.

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  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    2 hours ago, Dominic Carey said:

    What do UKMO and GFS look like this evening?

    It's all here Dominic

    https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data

    If you are unsure what the charts mean have a look in the teaching area and ask any specific questions on here, one of us will try to explain.

    Hope that helps

     

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  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    2 hours ago, Dominic Carey said:

    What do UKMO and GFS look like this evening?

    Does the lack of comments in here tonight give you a clue? ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    34 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

    Does the lack of comments in here tonight give you a clue? ? 

    Usually gives you an idea. Same last winter - mild and unsettled all the way so the crowds disappeared.

    Now there’s just mundane weather on the way people lose interest. Nothing has changed really - still the potential for an unseasonably deep low to roll in end of next week.

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  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Funny how when an unsettled pattern emerges it gets nailed time and again...

    GFS/GEM/ICON charts for next Friday:

    image.thumb.png.890d6b2269eff8058999c54b2a4acce2.pngimage.thumb.png.8318b3fc9be265194ca4893d8108cb49.pngimage.thumb.png.56e8e77f04597c4a9e0405ff884360fb.png


    UKMO only goes to 144, but looks to be headed the same way:

    image.thumb.png.e081f36d9acaa84edb22c390698ba7dc.png

    The next 10 days looking fairly wet wherever you are in the UK< but with more emphasis in the west:

    image.thumb.png.7e17f27f84223f53f66e38870220c9ba.png

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