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Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?


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2 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

End of summer?...don't 'bank' on it, end of summer by calendar month that's all. As another poster mentioned September is largely a summer month now days in the south.

On another note amazing how the warmth and humidity just seems to be extended, very strange synoptics we're now witnessing.

I dont disagree.. Just flagging up the next potential settled spell and perhaps extending in to September at times especially more Southern parts the EC46 does highlight this possibility. Also worth pointing out the met mention very warm spells possible well into the next month for the South.. Still a hell of a lot to play for over the next 4 or 5 weeks... And plenty more chances for further very warm spells.. This is perhaps the times we live in these days. 

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Astonishing rebound in momentum transport that is behind the current spectacular synoptics and associated high impact weather. Both the heat, and also the powder keg potential for thunderstorms.

*** USING THE ECM TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN A HEATWAVE - A REVIEW *** I often make predictions based on models several days ahead, and then I find it useful to revisit these predictions after t

The reality is that NWP is wholly congregated on, but susceptible to be blindsided and over preoccupied by, the re-ignition of the low frequency tropical convective standing wave across Africa and the

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4 hours ago, MattStoke said:

My birthday is on the 17th September and I find it ridiculous that some people think that is summertime. It just isn’t.

Mid September is very often warm and sunny down here. Less so in the North West.

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2 hours ago, johnholmes said:

How on earth can we have weather statistics if we do what you suggest? It is not just UK Met it is the World Met Organisation for every country in the world.

That does not mean we cannot get 'summery' type weather outside the official summer or 'wintry' type weather outside the official winter period.

2 hours ago, johnholmes said:

How on earth can we have weather statistics if we do what you suggest? It is not just UK Met it is the World Met Organisation for every country in the world.

That does not mean we cannot get 'summery' type weather outside the official summer or 'wintry' type weather outside the official winter period.

Many countries have no such thing as summer. 

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9 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

The seasons are not an astronomical event, man did that to "tidy it up" by using the quarter days.
The seasons are a natural event that dont start/stop on any one date, but weather plays a part in advancing or delaying some of the processes and as this is a meteorological forum, the meteorological summer ends on August 31st.

Well, as far as I'm concerned, real seasons start whenever they are ready... and Autumn will commence whenever it thinks fit: if summer wants to last until mid-September, then so be it?

We may well be on a 'meteorological site' -- but Mother Nature isn't: Mother Nature operates according to Her own rules... and not to ours?:oldgood:

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51 minutes ago, Dominic Carey said:

Can someone post the latest gfs please?

It’s fairly mixed beyond the heatwave, still on the warm side for many but further into the run there are a few cool episodes but all in all, not bad for late summer..plus, bear in mind it’s only 1 op run, reading between the lines from today’s update we certainly haven’t seen the last of the hot weather, or at least the s / se hasn’t!...there could be further very summery spells even well into early September.🙂

Edited by JON SNOW
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1 hour ago, 38.7°C said:

latest GFS keeps the warm weather well into next week. Gone is the extreme heat, but warmth holds on. Low to mid 20s for all. 

Yes 80F in old money in London at the weekend. Will probably feel pleasantly cool compared to the current insanity. Mid 90s at 7pm! 

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29 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

Actually a general question as I don't actually know how the current hot spell is happening and why it keeps happening then can crack the problem

Heat has been building in France / Spain for a while. High pressure to our east and low to the west draws this heat over the U. K. The pattern then became fairly static, allowing the heat to remain in place.

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1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Heat has been building in France / Spain for a while. High pressure to our east and low to the west draws this heat over the U. K. The pattern then became fairly static, allowing the heat to remain in place.

Thank you very much, very helpful.. 

 

Jet Stream needs a kick in the ass.. Way to hot mate, it's not how the UK roles.. 

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2 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

Thank you very much, very helpful.. 

 

Jet Stream needs a kick in the ass.. Way to hot mate, it's not how the UK roles.. 

The jet stream can actually cause these hot spells by digging south in the Atlantic then heading north, leading to us being on the hot side, but I don’t believe that’s the case with this spell.

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3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

The jet stream can actually cause these hot spells by digging south in the Atlantic then heading north, leading to us being on the hot side, but I don’t believe that’s the case with this spell.

Needs the be south of the UK not over Iceland.. It is quite warm over the Poles even as why I suspect the Jet is so weak as well.. Not looking great if you hate hot weather in the future... This hot I mean

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The ECM also keeps things very warm into early next week at least. I wouldn't be surprised if any incursion of cooler air is pushed back even further too.

Still a lot of very warm/hot air around on the continent next week and even the air to our north is pretty warm.

It will still be a significant cool down for the South East from Friday onwards, but for areas from the Midlands north things may not change that much in terms of temperatures. We've generally been in the 25-30C range in these parts over the past few days.

Edited by Scorcher
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If it was mid winter this forum would be pretty lively.

The relevant contour all the way back into the Arctic Circle. So for now not all that hot I would imagine and with a large and barely moving trough over the UK not especially sunny and dry!

 

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39 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Evening all!

Hope everyone is well!

Pretty stormy up here at times in the last twenty four hours - unfortunately for me...not in the West of Scotland! (SW has had its moments)

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UKV gives Heathrow a 35C tomorrow and 31C on Thursday - exceptional spell of weather down in the SE! 

Tomorrow 12:00, 13;00 and 14:00

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Thursday 15:00 and 18:00

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Wonderful and very interesting Summer weather for many of our members! 25C here tomorrow with plenty of sunshine. 😎

All the best to you all!

Thanks Mr Frost and enjoy the warmth!

Those UKV temperature charts look all over the place - up one hour, down the next. Must be expecting more cloud tomorrow. However, I feel the cloud over the SE has been overplayed by the models so far in this spell, so we'll see!

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4 hours ago, MATT☀️ said:

I dont disagree.. Just flagging up the next potential settled spell and perhaps extending in to September at times especially more Southern parts the EC46 does highlight this possibility. Also worth pointing out the met mention very warm spells possible well into the next month for the South.. Still a hell of a lot to play for over the next 4 or 5 weeks... And plenty more chances for further very warm spells.. This is perhaps the times we live in these days. 

Can you post a link please to the metoffice statements ?  Thanks 👍

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Heat ebbing away as the rest of the week wears on, tomorrow looks the last very hot day, temps staying warm still but closer to the August average through the weekend and into next week. Humidity not going anywhere fast though, not until middle of next week models suggesting something much fresher from the atlantic as the jet buckles and we move onto its colder side.  

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Urgh.... now facing yet another night of barely any sleep here in Surrey.... I cannot WAIT for Thursday!! Cooling down and we're headed to the North Devon coast for a few days so even cooler! I normally love the sun and heat so very odd for me to say that but I do feel rather finished off by this last week of 30c+ days and 20c+ nights!!! Nice to see the models showing an end to this but also signs of some further hot spells throughout August so we shall see!!

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4 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

Urgh.... now facing yet another night of barely any sleep here in Surrey.... I cannot WAIT for Thursday!! Cooling down and we're headed to the North Devon coast for a few days so even cooler! I normally love the sun and heat so very odd for me to say that but I do feel rather finished off by this last week of 30c+ days and 20c+ nights!!! Nice to see the models showing an end to this but also signs of some further hot spells throughout August so we shall see!!

Yup it’s unbearable. 

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