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Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?


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Can someone explain why the Countryfile forecast for Thursday was so so low at 24c for london, compared to MO which hasnt gone any lower than 26 c even for sunday and is showing 30 + for Thursday and every other model is far higher than what the Meteo group has suggested.

I felt embarrassed for Darren Bett with what he was showing.

Edited by seaside 60
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Astonishing rebound in momentum transport that is behind the current spectacular synoptics and associated high impact weather. Both the heat, and also the powder keg potential for thunderstorms.

*** USING THE ECM TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN A HEATWAVE - A REVIEW *** I often make predictions based on models several days ahead, and then I find it useful to revisit these predictions after t

The reality is that NWP is wholly congregated on, but susceptible to be blindsided and over preoccupied by, the re-ignition of the low frequency tropical convective standing wave across Africa and the

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4 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

Can someone explain why the Countryfile forecast for Thursday was so so low at 24c for london, compared to MO which hasnt gone any lower than 26 c even for sunday and is showing 30 + for Thursday and every other model is far higher than what the Meteo group has suggested.

I felt embarrassed for Darren Bett with what he was showing.

Cloud cover?... no one can nail this far off just where/when the thunderstorms/showers will fall , and under those temps will be much lower then if it was clearer sunny/bright skies.

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1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

Cloud cover?... no one can nail this far off just where/when the thunderstorms/showers will fall , and under those temps will be much lower then if it was clearer sunny/bright skies.

I honestly dont believe that cloud cover will make much difference with the amount of inbuilt ambient heat in the atmosphere, the ground and buildings.
However I  take your point but when its possibly already 22c plus over night, ( talking about london here)...

QUOTE from PM
Meteo/BBC use a blend of GFS and ECM data only, Meto use there own Model's which are more up to date and UK based, As well as the above. It's been very noticeable since Meteo took over UKMO contract. 

Surely their models cant be that much apart for thursday.

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15 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

I honestly dont believe that cloud cover will make much difference with the amount of inbuilt ambient heat in the atmosphere, the ground and buildings.
However I  take your point but when its possibly already 22c plus over night, ( talking about london here)...

QUOTE from PM
Meteo/BBC use a blend of GFS and ECM data only, Meto use there own Model's which are more up to date and UK based, As well as the above. It's been very noticeable since Meteo took over UKMO contract. 

Surely their models cant be that much apart for thursday.

The BBC are not as accurate as they once were, for example 6 months ago the GFS were consistently predicting a minor snow event here in Derby for 7 days ahead of it happening, the BBC were having non of it until the 13.30 forecast, just 30 mins before it snowed. (Feb 11th).  Personally, i find the GFS ECM and NOAA charts when in agreement more accurate then the BBC outlook, so i dont use it.

 

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Gfs shows raw temp of 36 in London for Wednesday, right conditions could be challenging records? 

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Just now, mushymanrob said:

The BBC are not as accurate as they once were, for example 6 months ago the GFS were consistently predicting a minor snow event here in Derby for 7 days ahead of it happening, the BBC were having non of it until the 13.30 forecast, just 30 mins before it snowed. (Feb 11th).  Personally, i find the GFS ECM and NOAA charts when in agreement more accurate then the BBC outlook, so i dont use it.

 

The BBC use ECM most of the time - when you look at their nightly extended forecast, the pressure sequence is usually the 00z ECM op run. I just don’t like how they use that and say x will happen, I’ve seen them use massive hot/cold ensemble outliers and base their extended outlook on it.....just seems foolish to me.

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24 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

I honestly dont believe that cloud cover will make much difference with the amount of inbuilt ambient heat in the atmosphere, the ground and buildings.
However I  take your point but when its possibly already 22c plus over night, ( talking about london here)...

QUOTE from PM
Meteo/BBC use a blend of GFS and ECM data only, Meto use there own Model's which are more up to date and UK based, As well as the above. It's been very noticeable since Meteo took over UKMO contract. 

Surely their models cant be that much apart for thursday.

As pm they are blended for deciphering.. and with the current set up @+ 24 hrs “tops” your likely see changes however subtle!

Edited by tight isobar
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Looking at the gfs it seems to keep things pretty warm in the south east through the weekend, showing temps of 26 degrees in London, if you add a degree or two then could still be about 27 or 28 through the weekend, still very warm 

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19 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

 

GFSOPEU06_240_2.jpg

If that's autumn Mushy I'll certainly take those uppers all the way through October!

Unsettled maybe but still very much a summery chart.

It seems that things will become more unsettled over time but all the major models look like remaining warm at the very least over the next week or so.

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GFS definitely keeps the humid feel going even into early next week, but one thing that continues to be at a premium is sunshine! Emphasis definitely on scattered thunderstorms almost any day this week with a gradual fall in temperatures day by day after midweek.

h850t850eu.png

Not far off another plume in that chart. If that low would just sink south and then the two heights to the west and northeast, we could get a cracking sunny spell. All very far out of course, subject to change, and a lot of (flashflood)water under the bridge before then.

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2 hours ago, clark3r said:

Gfs shows raw temp of 36 in London for Wednesday, right conditions could be challenging records? 

I think GFS is overcooking for once and not undercooking as 850s uppers are only 18C for London so I cant see the record being challenged. Your going to need 850s uppers touching 20C for high 30s in temps. 

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47 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

I think GFS is overcooking for once and not undercooking as 850s uppers are only 18C for London so I cant see the record being challenged. Your going to need 850s uppers touching 20C for high 30s in temps. 

Not sure this is true necessarily. Many factors come into play including heat from previous days and the dryness of the ground on the continent etc.

If you look back on notable hot spells of the past, they didn't always have very high 850 hPa temps.

August 3rd 1990 is a prime example- doesn't look that impressive at first glance really on the 850 hPa chart.

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It makes me laugh how some people in July were writing off August, just because x number of recent years have had mediocre to poor Augusts. Now we've swung the pendulum the other way and I have to sweat profusely for a week and a half because there is no escape from these sub-tropical conditions.

Edited by al78
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8 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Aye, smacks of an Easterly to me, showery in the South, drier and sunnier in the North, we wouldnt get a hot southerly but a warm, southerly sourced easterly?.. It wont be as hot as current conditions though, but better then average?

I don’t think it’s as cut off as you do .... hence less easterly in my world and more westerly .....

4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.978dbe626ecd09a682ebb6693a60f3a0.png

Day 10 - fairly deep low likely to be over the UK

Cluster 2 doesn’t look deep but then day 11 puts paid to any hope !  Going to be a Houdini act to get out of that one ! 

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4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.978dbe626ecd09a682ebb6693a60f3a0.png

Day 10 - fairly deep low likely to be over the UK

I don't think there's any way to spin that except unsettled and average temps at very best.

Considering @Tamara's post above, it will be interesting to see if this is an example of an NWP overreaction to other as yet uncertain signals?

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6 hours ago, Polar Maritime said:

Meteo/BBC use a blend of GFS and ECM data only, Meto use there own Model's which are more up to date and UK based, As well as the above. It's been very noticeable since Meteo took over UKMO contract for the BBC. A shame really to what used to be good British forecasting.. And there graphics are very sporadic compared to the old version.

Hello 

 

So why then don't the BBC use Ukmo instead of the Meto if meteo don't use ?  Is it about saving money but getting worse forecasts ?? 

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10 minutes ago, offerman said:

Hello 

 

So why then don't the BBC use Ukmo instead of the Meto if meteo don't use ?  Is it about saving money but getting worse forecasts ?? 

Correct. Quality of service will always come second to saving money!

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