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Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?


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Sunday update 9th July

Ec-gfs and ec has the atlantic trough further east into the uk with a low over the uk; gfs has an area of +ve heights where it had none before, from just e of Greenland over the uk and ne, with a noticeable trough w of and another over se uk and france.

So neither is consistent

Noaa shows less _ve heights and somewhat further east than the previous evening; the trough out of and s of Greenland is now shown less sharp and somewhat further east, and the slack flow into the uk is even more slack, in fact there is none  other than a fairly slack one off the atlantic for the far nw.

Overall with charts showing changes as outlined then the anomaly charts give no clear guidance for 6-10 days time as of this morning.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

The 8-14 suggests a fairly benign Atlantic flow

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Astonishing rebound in momentum transport that is behind the current spectacular synoptics and associated high impact weather. Both the heat, and also the powder keg potential for thunderstorms.

*** USING THE ECM TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN A HEATWAVE - A REVIEW *** I often make predictions based on models several days ahead, and then I find it useful to revisit these predictions after t

The reality is that NWP is wholly congregated on, but susceptible to be blindsided and over preoccupied by, the re-ignition of the low frequency tropical convective standing wave across Africa and the

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16 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

BBC weather hinting that after the heatwave high pressure will build from Atlantic bringing cooler more settled conditions to most.

one of the outcomes Tamara suggested might occur in one her her previous posts

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Morning-

Interesting modelling for the past 3 days. Every single time the models swept the heat away the next days modelling has extended it by 1 day-

We started with a 1 day heatwave from the GFS - we are now hot till Weds ( maybe Thurs ) according to 00z UKMO!

Would be great with 6+ days past 30c!

UKMO 144 suggests a very slack stationary flow indicating the warmth would still be there in the high 20s... 

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning-

Interesting modelling for the past 3 days. Every single time the models swept the heat away the next days modelling has extended it by 1 day-

We started with a 1 day heatwave from the GFS - we are now hot till Weds ( maybe Thurs ) according to 00z UKMO!

Would be great with 6+ days past 30c!

UKMO 144 suggests a very slack stationary flow indicating the warmth would still be there in the high 20s... 

A longer spell of heat was always possible on the NOAA 500mb charts, the GFS has shifted towards what those charts had been suggesting several days ago as previously posted.

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8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

We started with a 1 day heatwave from the GFS - we are now hot till Weds ( maybe Thurs ) according to 00z UKMO!

If you weren't following the GFS (which I rarely do) it was always going to be at least 3 days of heat (predicted from last weekend) and even the ECM to a degree has extended it to near Thursday over the last day or so.

Key here: don't follow the GFS...

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20 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

If you weren't following the GFS (which I rarely do) it was always going to be at least 3 days of heat (predicted from last weekend) and even the ECM to a degree has extended it to near Thursday over the last day or so.

Key here: don't follow the GFS...

Lol - I have never followed the GFS

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47 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Lol - 

Note the awsome accuracy of the UKMO 144 last Monday 00z for today + 0z today side by side

0E82DF53-F5C7-4A55-AEE5-7E2A6A678F9D.thumb.png.525103b807f5ee117bbb25d325b37c02.pngEBEE1312-93F5-43AB-8B31-F79962C35F03.thumb.png.b949b057a57cc1a78bce7852d6778410.png

Day 6 shouldn’t be so v tough for a good model to get the upper pattern close  .....Ukmo is an odd one - anecdotally it’s either really good or terrible for day 6.  Not day 5 but day 6 ....... v strange ......

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2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Interesting, just look at the inversion here and the effect of the cool Northeasterlies with that dreadful "dead sky" stratiform low cloud.
 

inversion.jpg

Looking at that ascent there seems to be about 60 mb of ST to shift, and to complicate matters there also seems cloud above it. Not seen an infra red sat picc if it confirms this.

But this sat link for infra red (needed to show middle and high level clouds) suggests there is none!

WWW.YR.NO

Værvarsel for 9,3 millioner steder i verden!

Looking a bit closer and the Ac shown on the ascent could have been the cloud seen exiting the bottom right?

So fingers crossed, for those of us in the east, there is no cloud above the ST and visual sat piccs do suggest the ST is thinning already.

The sun is out at Leicester on the live cricket Leic V Derby

Edited by johnholmes
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68DCB905-EE81-4023-8C60-6AEFCF33B0F1.thumb.png.8926ee8997096400ddbc9ff2c63e0d72.png

Unusual to see this level of cluster options at day 5. Clearly from this mornings runs, models having real trouble with how this trough interacts, develops and where it goes.

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27 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

68DCB905-EE81-4023-8C60-6AEFCF33B0F1.thumb.png.8926ee8997096400ddbc9ff2c63e0d72.png

Unusual to see this level of cluster options at day 5. Clearly from this mornings runs, models having real trouble with how this trough interacts, develops and where it goes.

This has been the narrative for a few days now and as Steve has mentioned, whilst thus conundrum trundles on, the upper ridge has held firm in our locale .....we really are no nearer knowing what will actually happen with this feature ........

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Well, all I know is summer is back with a bang:bomb:!!!!, looking at the GEFS 6z mean for most of the week ahead..charts that we are usually dreaming of in deepest FI lala land are very much inside the reliable..still have to pinch myself!..July was mostly dismal, the first half or so of August is the polar opposite!!!!😜🔥☀️🌩️
442B8A3D-9E8A-4D94-892C-0C33F2AF680E.thumb.png.556d77ffe70df9c0536a3f9669f3899c.pngA06CA54F-1041-4939-B813-257F0A65D721.thumb.png.160645f5ca60d573f35eeb8a80ff2138.png4084749D-7A87-4890-B5F5-0EC47A828EE1.thumb.png.449747ef9c20d1fba4d2d24fd1359b46.pngDF4E5F1A-5440-4F78-BA61-1E2BB7DD3D3B.thumb.png.6e9cf5139e5b6179b6b2bf4d872f14d9.pngB718BD91-33CB-491E-8164-3AA2D9E34774.thumb.png.ef57510879ad3e19a6923880f14857db.png5634FF9F-39F2-4EB4-B3D5-81A4777A7F16.thumb.png.a30dd2d1f698ca5f8b085f630ada173e.png

 

Edited by JON SNOW
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Wise words from Tamara again - plenty of scope for a ‘gentle’ easing toward what may prove to be an ‘early autumn‘ by the end of the month... thunderstorms aside!

So, a transition, probably by the weekend, to high pressure still having plenty of influence from the west in an overall cooler but still plenty warm by day regime.

Then, the highs are likely to tend to become restricted further west with time but not necessarily with much haste - a gradual slide to unsettled conditions during the 2nd half of August.

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Where are these posters  gone that were claiming the gfs was  on top of the throne,the best performing model etc,a few days ago-it’s just been proven by the above posts that it was WRONG again,as it nearly always is..

 

 

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3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Where are these posters  gone that were claiming the gfs was  on top of the throne,the best performing model etc,a few days ago-it’s just been proven by the above posts that it was WRONG again,as it nearly always is..

 

 

Silence speaks volumes @SLEETY. Everyone knows ECM and UKMO are king 🏆 

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1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Where are these posters  gone that were claiming the gfs was  on top of the throne,the best performing model etc,a few days ago-it’s just been proven by the above posts that it was WRONG again,as it nearly always is..

 

 

Basically the UKMO followed the GFS for one run and a few people went "Ahhh! See!". UKMO went straight back to its original idea on the next run, stuck with it - a few runs later the GFS followed the UKMO, and that's exactly what's happened. Aside that one run, brilliant from UKMO.

ARPEGE 12Z just out; Monday+Tuesday 35C with patches of 36C, Wednesday 35C, Thursday 30C

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If you look in detail you can again see traces of GFS 12z moving to the UKMO

why? > Its the age old problem of GFS morphing seperate areas of energy together rather than resolving them into seperate movements

Highlighted below is the 2 areas from GFS that it amalgamates into 1 at the end of week giving that unsettled look where as UKMO has that trough remaining seperate & heading SW.

GFS 12z increases the seperation early on which indicates a step towards the Euro...

4530BB81-6262-4C42-A034-9A83EF4C576D.thumb.jpeg.d04be7a689c601ad1a0b353a5a8e3dd0.jpeg

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The GFS gives a high of 36’C in London on Wednesday. Given how much it underestimates temperatures, the all time record could well be under threat. That is if skies stay clear.

5AE5DE14-EBED-4DF4-BB92-6CF4A395E1DE.jpeg

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