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Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Extent Poll 2020   

15 members have voted

  1. 1. What will the 2020 NSIDC daily sea ice extent minimum be this year? Options are in millions of km2

    • > 7.0
      0
    • 6.75 - 7.0 (80s average)
      0
    • 6.5 to 6.75
      0
    • 6.25 to 6.5 (90s average)
      0
    • 6.0 to 6.25
      0
    • 5.75 to 6.0
      0
    • 5.5 to 5.75
      0
    • 5.25 to 5.5 (00s average)
      0
    • 5.0 to 5.25
      0
    • 4.75 to 5.0
      0
    • 4.5 to 4.75
    • 4.25 to 4.5 (10s average)
    • 4.0 to 4.25 (2007)
      0
    • 3.75 to 4.0
    • 3.5 to 3.75
    • 3.25 to 3.5 (2012)
    • 3.0 to 3.25
    • 2.75 to 3.0
      0
    • 2.5 to 2.75
      0
    • 2.25 to 2.5
      0
    • 2.0 to 2.25
      0
    • 1.75 to 2.0
      0
    • 1.5 to 1.75
      0
    • 1.25 to 1.5
      0
    • 1.0 to 1.25
      0
    • <1.0
      0

This poll is closed to new votes


Recommended Posts

Latest poll to see how we think the Arctic sea ice melt season will go this year. As we all know, extent has plummeted in recent week, setting record low values and beating the previous years by over half a million km2 at times. Will this continue, or are there more surprises to come?

As before, the data will be based on the NSIDC extent measures. They provide excel spreadsheets here that contain all of their daily data. Below are the values for the last 10 minima, in millions of km2

2019:    4.1
2018:    4.6
2017:    4.6
2016:    4.1
2015:    4.4
2014:    5.0
2013:    5.0
2012:    3.3
2011:    4.3
2010:    4.6
 

From the April poll, the average of 22 votes was 4.1 million km2, with a 90% range from 2.5 to 5.7.
From the May poll, the average of 15 votes was 4.0 million km2, with a 90% range from 3.2 to 4.9.
From the June poll, the average of 14 votes was 3.7 million km2, with a 90% range from 3.3 to 4.2.
From the July poll, the average of 13 votes was 3.5 million km2, with a 90% range from 3.1 to 4.0.

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