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Autumn 2020 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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48 minutes ago, Don said:

I'm not liking the way this September is shaping up with an extension of summer!  I won't say why!

I know your reason why. Warm Septembers in recent times dont have a good correlation with getting a decent winter. Whatever chance we have with cool Septembers,warm Septembers are definitely not a good pointer to a decent winter ,not nowadays anyway. 

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I'd hate to be a thermostat, in a house shared by @markyo and @Azazel!

Today I spent a lot of time studying IOD. I was working out the relationship between IOD, ENSO and MJO.  There is a connnection between IOD and ENSO, mostly during strong events. During weak La Nina I

I take it from reading some of the comments on here that I’m not allowed to look forward to, or comment about the signs of autumn in the autumn thread??  I could understand if the post I made this

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13 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Quite an interesting debate going on with replies to that tweet. 🧐

Yes,interesting thoughts allround.There were a good few of them interesting exchanges already weeks before if you follow my tweets back. Nina is getting stronger than I would like to see and now looks like a moderate event. Models mean 3.4 region now at -1.2 Nov/Dec. Could mean more winter interest in Nov/Dec then Jan/Feb

 

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3 hours ago, sundog said:

I know your reason why. Warm Septembers in recent times dont have a good correlation with getting a decent winter. Whatever chance we have with cool Septembers,warm Septembers are definitely not a good pointer to a decent winter ,not nowadays anyway. 

Spot on!

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13 minutes ago, Thebeastfromtheeast said:

It hasn't been a warm September so far though 

It will likely be a warm month overall.

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Those on the mod thread who will turn to hunting cold come Nov, would want to be careful what they are wishing for as regards wanting the heat next week. Rejoicing the extended summer,let's see what rejoicing they will be doing come winter when they are looking for cold spells.  Lol

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1 hour ago, sundog said:

Those on the mod thread who will turn to hunting cold come Nov, would want to be careful what they are wishing for as regards wanting the heat next week. Rejoicing the extended summer,let's see what rejoicing they will be doing come winter when they are looking for cold spells.  Lol

Yes, I quite agree!

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6 hours ago, sundog said:

I know your reason why. Warm Septembers in recent times dont have a good correlation with getting a decent winter. Whatever chance we have with cool Septembers,warm Septembers are definitely not a good pointer to a decent winter ,not nowadays anyway. 

Looking at last 20 years or so there has been a strong correlation between warmer than average Septembers followed by mild or very mild winters 

Warmest September was 2006, another very warm September was 2016, both winters after were very mild. Other warm Septembers include 1999, 2011 and 2004, all above 15 degrees, all three were followed by mild winters in the main, though Feb 05 and 12 provided cold interest.

One September that bucked the trend was 2015, came in 1.2 degrees below 61-90 mean what I would class today as notably below, the winter that followed one of the mildest on record.

Chilly recent Septembers include 2012 and to a lesser extent 2017, winters that followed were quite cold. 

As always though our weather is a result of the synoptics and it isn't unusual to expect southerly flow and anticyclonic spells in September delivering notable warmth, given the continent hasnt really cooled from its August peak, to be expected. Perhaps today though the degree of warmth is higher than ever. Making anomalies greater. I'd be more concerned had the last 2 weeks which have been Atlantic driven delivered appreciable warmth, instead it's been very average, even a bit below in northern parts.

In conclusion, law of probability may raise concern about cold winter prospects, but as ever no guarantees when it comes to the weather and always best to keep an open position and not get bogged down in believing things cant happen, where is the joy otherwise!

Edited by damianslaw
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I wonder how much of this warm September-warm winter link is being biased by the warming climate which has resulted in the majority of recent months/years being warm.  Looking further back in the archives, there were warm Septembers in 1955, 1978 and 1981...

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34 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I am, should slow virus spread too

I have no issue with other people's weather preferences.  I'm sure cold weather lovers will still hunt for cold come November.

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It will be interesting (for want of a better word) to see if a change of seasons does have any affect spread of Covid19.

I must admit I've never known how or if winter weather affects virus spread; you'd think cold weather kills germs off but we spend a lot of time indoors anyway during autumn and winter, mild or cold.

Edited by Bradley in Kent
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Just now, Bradley in Kent said:

It will be interesting (for want of a better word) to see if a change of seasons does have any affect spread of Covid19.

I must admit I've never known how or if winter weather affects virus spread; you'd think cold weather kills germs off but we spend a lot of time indoors anyway during winter, mild or cold.

I would guess the warmer the weather, the less spread of the virus, we all love snow/cold, but I reckon that will increase chances of getting the virus/spreads way more

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4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I would guess the warmer the weather, the less spread of the virus, we all love snow/cold, but I reckon that will increase chances of getting the virus/spreads way more

And there's that question on whether being cold actually gives you a cold and whether heating (not turned on yet) also gives you a cold. 

A quick internet search gives no useful answers and anything I've heard has only been anecdotal.

Of course these topics have always floated about, but I think this year we'll be taking much more notice!

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I get the impression that relative humidity is a significant factor in aiding the spread of COVID-19, so a cold and dry winter with a lot of clear polar air might not be too bad from that point of view, and possibly better than a mild and moist winter like last year's.  However, I expect that a mild and dry winter would be optimal for curbing the virus.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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1 minute ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

I get the impression that relative humidity is a significant factor in aiding the spread of COVID-19, so a cold and dry winter with a lot of clear polar air might not be too bad from that point of view, and possibly better than a mild and moist winter like last year's.  However, I expect that a mild and dry winter would be optimal for curbing the virus.

2010 type weather would be best from a human behavioural point of view in my opinion. Would be less travel for starters. 

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5 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

I get the impression that relative humidity is a significant factor in aiding the spread of COVID-19, so a cold and dry winter with a lot of clear polar air might not be too bad from that point of view, and possibly better than a mild and moist winter like last year's.  However, I expect that a mild and dry winter would be optimal for curbing the virus.

After cold/snowy/frosty, I would happily take a mild, dry winter as long as sunshine was above average - difficult to achieve in the first half of winter of course but mild and sunny does indeed become easier as the days lengthen later in the season.

Generally speaking, it would just be really nice to keep those wet useless days where you're almost forced to stay indoors to a minimum throughout the silly season.

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If the UK hits at least 30C during this spell, it'll be the first time that every month from June to September has had an absolute max of at least 30.0C somewhere in the UK since 1949 presumably (cannot 100% confirm this due to limited data at hand). 2005 almost did it but missed by a few tenths of a degree in September and May that year also had 31.4C. Other years that come to mind are 1911 and 1949 which successfully achieved the 30C in every month from June to September whilst 1933, similar to 2005, missed the mark somewhat in September.

1947 (and possibly 1868) is the only year in recorded history that 30.0C or more has been observed somewhere in the UK every month from May to September although as previously mentioned, 2005 almost achieved this too. 

Edited by BruenSryan
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