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Autumn 2020 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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1 hour ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Guess you must live in the desert south then, grass has been lush and green here all summer, and all the woodland paths round here are muddy due to the wet summer we’ve had up here.

Yes Essex to be precise. Grass has been terrible since the warm spell we had in May. 

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I'd hate to be a thermostat, in a house shared by @markyo and @Azazel!

Today I spent a lot of time studying IOD. I was working out the relationship between IOD, ENSO and MJO.  There is a connnection between IOD and ENSO, mostly during strong events. During weak La Nina I

I've lost my excitement for the heat this year. Not looking forward to the +30°c later this week. I find myself daydreaming about eating toffee apples in the evening while wrapped up snug in temp

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5 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Guess you must live in the desert south then, grass has been lush and green here all summer, and all the woodland paths round here are muddy due to the wet summer we’ve had up here.

After the very dry mid March to late May period, the summer as a whole has been an excellent one growing season wise. Abundant copious rain throughout, no major long lasting heat, we only managed a brief shot in late June and that week earlier in August. Everything right now looking splendidly green and the rivers and streams in full flow, with waterlogged ground everywhere. Evaporation has been limited. Doesn't bode well though for the winter if we see a wet Autumn on the back of the wet summer, water table will be very high and won't take much for widespread flooding. 

As for the autumn ahead, I never get a feel for how things might pan out until well into September. First half of September doesn't tend to give you many clues, as it can be a very dry period, a switch to wet conditions can quickly take place later in the month and hold through the rest of the autumn. 

Its around the autumn equinox I take note of how things are behaving more generally, a southerly tracking jetstream aided by high tropical storm activity can indicate an anomalous base state in the northern hemisphere and the chances of non-atlantic weather predominating rest of the autumn is increased I feel. Equally a very sluggish jetstream around then with blocking highs to our north and east can indicate the same. Low pressure systems that take unusual trajectory paths are also something to raise any eyebrow too. 

Forecasts are suggesting an active hurricane season this autumn, combined with a shift to at least a weak La Nina. We might see quite a bit of unusual behaviour of low pressure systems, perhaps a more meridional atlantic flow with strong ridge development behind low pressure systems. 

A very mixed autumn safest bet, just like the summer gone, perhaps with a few extremes cold and warmth wise but these not lasting to long. I'll give further thoughts next week.

Edited by damianslaw
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On 24/08/2020 at 15:36, SteveB said:

I often think August has an autumn feel about it. Certainly over the last 20yrs or so. August used to be a true summer month.... I suppose this August had that feel about it at the beginning,  but certainly not now. It would be nice to have a benign autumn for once, frosty nights and windy (not gale force) days, with some rainy days chucked in for good measure.  

What I suspect will happen though, is one storm after another right the way through until February knowing our luck. 

I sometimes feel as though things have moved a month earlier than they "should" be, in that May now often seems to produce the best weather of the entire year. Yes, this year's May was record-breaking in sunshine terms, but in many years now I seem to find myself spending more time outdoors in May than in any other month. Part of that is because you don't get the humidity of late summer (or the wasps!) and perhaps I'm imagining things a bit, but I really do feel like May is a better bet than any "true" summer month quite often now.

On topic, I do have some hopes for September. I can't say this is any more than a hunch, but I reckon we could be in for a fairly benign month with a decent amount of dry and moderately warm weather. Even if there's nothing special heat-wise, I'd be pretty OK with being able to sit outdoors at cafes etc for another few weeks.

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5 minutes ago, Arctic Hare said:

I sometimes feel as though things have moved a month earlier than they "should" be, in that May now often seems to produce the best weather of the entire year. Yes, this year's May was record-breaking in sunshine terms, but in many years now I seem to find myself spending more time outdoors in May than in any other month. Part of that is because you don't get the humidity of late summer (or the wasps!) and perhaps I'm imagining things a bit, but I really do feel like May is a better bet than any "true" summer month quite often now.

On topic, I do have some hopes for September. I can't say this is any more than a hunch, but I reckon we could be in for a fairly benign month with a decent amount of dry and moderately warm weather. Even if there's nothing special heat-wise, I'd be pretty OK with being able to sit outdoors at cafes etc for another few weeks.

May is probably the least Atlantic dominated month of the year, August, Dec, Jan and Feb the most

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During September, I have a feeling that we will be getting the best of the weather around the middle of the month (temps in the early to mid 20s). The first part of the month will be low pressure dominated, so essentially a continuation from what we are experiencing now. Late in in the month I reckon it will be mainly settled, but a little cooler (high teens) and with some cool nights.

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2 hours ago, Arctic Hare said:

I sometimes feel as though things have moved a month earlier than they "should" be, in that May now often seems to produce the best weather of the entire year. Yes, this year's May was record-breaking in sunshine terms, but in many years now I seem to find myself spending more time outdoors in May than in any other month. Part of that is because you don't get the humidity of late summer (or the wasps!) and perhaps I'm imagining things a bit, but I really do feel like May is a better bet than any "true" summer month quite often now.

On topic, I do have some hopes for September. I can't say this is any more than a hunch, but I reckon we could be in for a fairly benign month with a decent amount of dry and moderately warm weather. Even if there's nothing special heat-wise, I'd be pretty OK with being able to sit outdoors at cafes etc for another few weeks.

May has definitely had a better time of it since 2016, still a bit iffy, but has in more recent years delivered some great weather e.g. 2018 and this year. I do however remember May as being particularly fickle during my school years (pre-2010) with numerous sports fixtures rained off during active spells of weather, especially the 2002-2004 period and 2006-2009. I'd have probably had the same problem if I'd been at school between 2011-2015 too. It was always frustrating because April often brought decent weather during the Easter holidays, and June often brought a resumption of better weather after the half term break, just in time for end of year exams.

Conversely, September seems to have gone the other way. I remember and have records of the 2000s Septembers having settled conditions at least for half the month, whereas since 2010 they've become much more erratic, with only 2014 being reliably settled. Perhaps the 2020s will see a return of settled Septembers.

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9 hours ago, MP-R said:

May has definitely had a better time of it since 2016, still a bit iffy, but has in more recent years delivered some great weather e.g. 2018 and this year. I do however remember May as being particularly fickle during my school years (pre-2010) with numerous sports fixtures rained off during active spells of weather, especially the 2002-2004 period and 2006-2009. I'd have probably had the same problem if I'd been at school between 2011-2015 too. It was always frustrating because April often brought decent weather during the Easter holidays, and June often brought a resumption of better weather after the half term break, just in time for end of year exams.

Conversely, September seems to have gone the other way. I remember and have records of the 2000s Septembers having settled conditions at least for half the month, whereas since 2010 they've become much more erratic, with only 2014 being reliably settled. Perhaps the 2020s will see a return of settled Septembers.

Septembers were cold for a time during the 90s, and we had a few of those in the 2000s.

I like a warm sunny September, instead of a cool unsettled one. The latter doesn’t always guarantee a cold winter either.

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25 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

 

I like a warm sunny September, instead of a cool unsettled one. The latter doesn’t always guarantee a cold winter either.

Nothing guarantees anything for winter anyway, as the past will tell you.

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5 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Septembers were cold for a time during the 90s, and we had a few of those in the 2000s.

I like a warm sunny September, instead of a cool unsettled one. The latter doesn’t always guarantee a cold winter either.

Yes indeed. Last year was quite a good (perhaps slightly cooler) example of what I’d expect from September. Often settled until the equinox then unsettled.

Just not the months that followed please...

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8 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Today I spent a lot of time studying IOD. I was working out the relationship between IOD, ENSO and MJO.  There is a connnection between IOD and ENSO, mostly during strong events. During weak La Nina IOD tends to be in neutral/negative phase. Autumns of 1983,1995,1998,2005,2010 and 2016 are very representative. All these years had MJOs in the phases between 5-7 in November, also the propensity of MJO phases 6 and 7 in La Nina is the strongest in November/December period. See the combined November height anomaly of these years. Honestly, I didn't go any further into the winter, but I'm starting to feel good about November, I'm almost ready to put my reputation 🙂 on the table now and say it will be surprisingly cold.

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Yes I think we will be launched into an early winter. In fact I think at this point we're looking at a front loaded winter of sorts with a stormier February.

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11 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Autumn's about to hit Canada and the US mid-west

 

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yep i live in that big purple blob..highs forecasts in the single digits for end of August

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12 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

yep i live in that big purple blob..highs forecasts in the single digits for end of August

I visited Calgary and Banff in October 2010 and it was surprisingly mild, maxes in the teens and on my last day in Calgary 20 October it hit 20 degrees. Seems I caught a mild spell. Barely any frost to speak of as well.

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Just now, damianslaw said:

I visited Calgary and Banff in October 2010 and it was surprisingly mild, maxes in the teens and on my last day in Calgary 20 October it hit 20 degrees. Seems I caught a mild spell. Barely any frost to speak of as well.

which precluded the snowiest winter in 40 years

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14 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

which precluded the snowiest winter in 40 years

I guess it was an anomalously mild month then October 2010 for West Canada. I have a habit of visiting places at times when they seem to experience very mild weather for the time of year. New Year 07 a case in point, visited Moscow and St Petersburgh, not one day were maxes below 0 degrees, everything was slush, and the River never had ice breaking up everywhere!

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45 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I guess it was an anomalously mild month then October 2010 for West Canada. I have a habit of visiting places at times when they seem to experience very mild weather for the time of year. New Year 07 a case in point, visited Moscow and St Petersburgh, not one day were maxes below 0 degrees, everything was slush, and the River never had ice breaking up everywhere!

I went to Chicago in early October 2010 and it was quite hot. Mid to high 20s, and I think the first couple of days it was 27-28, with night time temps of around 17-19c. But the heat was quite dry. 
 

Fast forward a week later, and the daytime highs were dropping to 16c. I was just lucky to be there for a late warm spell. 

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On 26/08/2020 at 07:20, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Temps dropping away nicely now. We could see 6-7c on Sat' night/Sunday morning.

Haven't been on here for months but see you've moved to Chipping Norton. It's near where I grew up and where I went to secondary school, can promise you if there's even a whiff of snow about, you'll get it. Chippy has always been a bit of a snow magnet, many a year saw truck drivers unable to get up the hills and marooned in temporary shelter in the town hall. Enjoy! I on the other hand have just bought a house in the highest village in Somerset, sitting on top of the mendip plateau at 260m asl. My love of snow has absolutely nothing to do with it, zilch, nada, pinky promise 😇

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19 hours ago, damianslaw said:

I guess it was an anomalously mild month then October 2010 for West Canada. I have a habit of visiting places at times when they seem to experience very mild weather for the time of year. New Year 07 a case in point, visited Moscow and St Petersburgh, not one day were maxes below 0 degrees, everything was slush, and the River never had ice breaking up everywhere!

I was in Ukraine the week before Christmas and didn't even get a night below zero never mind day. It got up to 16C when I was in Ľviv! At least it was sunny though - a few days later I was in Kiev and it was pretty much 11C and raining the whole time. My friend went to Kiev at the end of October and got snow. There's simply no justice sometimes. 

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Autumn 2020 certainly started early this year, I.e. today. Temps today and rest of the month on a par with early October and indeed Saturday night looking colder than many an average October one.

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Every year I look for the first day that fails to reach 15C to welcome in autumn. Today came very very close maxing out at 15.3C. Incidentally, June 18th was a cold day at only 15.6C with rain for most of it. 

Last year it took until October 2nd and in 2018 September 22nd was the first day to not reach 15C.

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7 hours ago, MP-R said:

Every year I look for the first day that fails to reach 15C to welcome in autumn. Today came very very close maxing out at 15.3C. Incidentally, June 18th was a cold day at only 15.6C with rain for most of it. 

Last year it took until October 2nd and in 2018 September 22nd was the first day to not reach 15C.

Sunday's looking to top out at around 14c after an overnight low of 7/8c

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