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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

    Indeed, the 6z is looking somewhat similar.  Friday is certainly shaping up to be a bit of a rotter!  It's what happens after that's now of interest as the ECM looked pretty good days 8-10

    image.thumb.png.3decff1c1372dca2d4408c6819a2a836.pngimage.thumb.png.cbb8431930bb1927a439f866afc93e6d.png 

    GFS also cooks up a stinker on Thursday with a rain band drabbed over central England and exceptionally suppressed temps for July. Despite a coupe of marginally better days for the south Tuesday & Wednesday any sustained improvement in conditions remain firmly outside the boundaries of the reliable timeframe as they have done now for well over a week, GFS again attempts to build a ride in through the weekend however its weak and looks ripe to be replaced by further activity from the west. Summer in these parts is unquestionably turning poor, only 8days reached 21C so far and a figure we might only add 1 or 2 days at best to in the next 8-10days. 

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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    GFS 06Z Day10, more green snot approaching ?

     

    GFSOPEU06_240_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking at the overnight models, I still see improvement longer term (Azores ridging etc..)..as I have in previous days!..July could easily produce some lovely weather..don’t give up..it’s only the 4th of July!?  ? 

    A986B35B-8F24-4392-95AE-4856B540268C.thumb.gif.ca2c53e44c69b2add4409099e3d5f0df.gifF0679107-F014-46ED-A7B2-2E4DA6C3A130.thumb.gif.27a0f472d3c1fe9dadff63a3558720c9.gifE6913FD3-8C27-43D3-BC6E-36645FFA26FA.thumb.gif.28063a68084ce42c1ff0e0c2a12b589b.gif29EF068E-E8A9-4331-9001-2EE812985D04.thumb.png.f7478a558211b77af244345329bda950.png9EAE367C-E960-425D-AEA0-88FAE7974ED8.thumb.png.f13fcb1025f9d33f8191ff80204f2ad4.png8444C534-5C63-4937-BD2D-AA013DD9F7FB.thumb.png.260969f24e76818967921337e1ea6303.png

     

    Edited by JON SNOW
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    FI horror show upcoming on the 6z:

    image.thumb.png.875344fe5a779e1ca1458bf1f70a121c.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    ECM mean does show an improvement by late next Weekend, but it's still a little to far out to have much faith currently.. The NOAA charts are still illustrating Heights more to the West with the flow more W/NWTLY.. so conditions being average at best and that's not to sound negative cause I hate sounding like that. 

    Ohh and we have some gr8 members on here... Aka Tams and John Holmes who have helped me in explaining certain things weather related... Thanks guys and gals.. Much appreciated as always.. ?

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    2 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

    ECM mean does show an improvement by late next Weekend, but it's still a little to far out to have much faith currently.. The NOAA charts are still illustrating Heights more to the West with the flow more W/NWTLY.. so conditions being average at best and that's not to sound negative cause I hate sounding like that. 

    Ohh and we have some gr8 members on here... Aka Tams and John Holmes who have helped me in explaining certain things weather related... Thanks guys and gals.. Much appreciated as always.. ?

    Hey Matt, don’t worry about sounding negative, I know for a fact you are looking for positives and as I keep saying, there are positives further ahead in terms of the Azores ridge / high ( as shown on the ECM / GEFS)..now, how successful it turns out to be is a whole different matter but I would rather look ? at the positives rather than the negatives!!!..well done mate!?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    32 minutes ago, LRD said:

    FI horror show upcoming on the 6z:

    image.thumb.png.875344fe5a779e1ca1458bf1f70a121c.png

     

    That’s so close to an interesting chart. A few hundred miles further west and it could be humid, thundery and, most importantly - sunny!

    Of course we all know the atmosphere will conspire to deliver the most boring outcome possible.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    I respect what Tamara and co have to say, and their posts are useful. But even she is sounding less positive than a couple of weeks ago. I still think we will see a heatwave of some description later in the month, but we need a pattern change fast. Improvements are currently only ever shown at day 10 or beyond.

    Not writing off summer, but not too optimistic at the moment. To be fair, we are due a crap summer - and apart from a couple of days at the start of June and a few last week, it’s been just that. Sick and tired of cloud and rain now..

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    re this

    . Summer in these parts is unquestionably turning poor, only 8days reached 21C so far and a figure we might only add 1 or 2 days at best to in the next 8-10days. 

     

    Best you relocate to this area, had double that number so far and 3 over 30 C!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    7 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    I respect what Tamara and co have to say, and their posts are useful. But even she is sounding less positive than a couple of weeks ago. I still think we will see a heatwave of some description later in the month, but we need a pattern change fast. Improvements are currently only ever shown at day 10 or beyond.

    Not writing off summer, but not too optimistic at the moment. To be fair, we are due a crap summer - and apart from a couple of days at the start of June and a few last week, it’s been just that. Sick and tired of cloud and rain now..

    I can understand where your coming from mate.. I had high hopes after that gr8 May which was obviously a false sense of security.. That's a concern of mine just lately to keep seeing the best conditions reserved at day 10+,it almost feels like chasing the illusive Winter cold snap right now. I don't think the sun as even made an appearance here for 8 days now.. Its one extreme to the other and it drives me mad at times. The EC 46 and the current NOAA charts don't paint a gr8 picture currently, that could change soon, well Im hoping it does... Forever the optimist can be tiring at times.. ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Ok..so, I’m seeing better signs from the GEFS 6z mean.,is anyone else seeing better signs as time goes on..? hey, I’m showing charts to prove my point!!!!!!?
    D09FB2B6-FFFB-483D-9E47-3C7D934C8AD5.thumb.png.d66d4569dcd18880da6c32fcd1305dc4.png81EB47BF-CC81-4C87-B88F-5206BEEF2AC8.thumb.png.828fa0fa8a51b6163e4a76e88e8f6fa2.png544AEA0D-7995-4C47-8FA8-38020A4DFD6C.thumb.png.1e87b51ad82dbd5cc62dec12660330d5.png12C707BF-91EE-4A8E-9832-4D312FE15302.thumb.png.1183c0329a99eae31c8565b19eab5776.png016AB188-F202-410E-ADAF-EF050EFF0464.thumb.png.b3322c6dc779e7c808179a6e9eb2b6e9.png4DB0273F-A337-4486-9937-C259B16BA5B8.thumb.png.ac0bffa3613e0f1b29d74efba63ec6f5.png138E6B41-61A3-47A8-86D4-73643EC83B51.thumb.png.db7c819494cc957887f6cb79fb6364ff.png

     

    Edited by JON SNOW
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    49 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Crikey! With all this morning's talk of 'stinkers', 'horrors' and 'shockers', I think I'll wait to see what @Tamara has to say... Some folks really do need a sense of perspective, at times!?

    That might be aimed at me. I only made one post! I'm not saying that particular horror show is going to happen but just commenting on a particular model frame in the model output discussion. And it is a horror chart for anyone wanting summer and the trend, including the Met Office update, is that prolonged summer won't be a feature of our weather in July

    As is usual, the south will get some fine days but heatwave territory it is not

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    5 minutes ago, LRD said:

    That might be aimed at me. I only made one post! I'm not saying that particular horror show is going to happen but just commenting on a particular model frame in the model output discussion. And it is a horror chart for anyone wanting summer and the trend, including the Met Office update, is that prolonged summer won't be a feature of our weather in July

    As is usual, the south will get some fine days but heatwave territory it is not

    I used the word stinker as well ? But if you don't think that its use is justified when GFS shows 10-12C maxes across parts of central England in early July it can never used to describe poor weather again.....period.......

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    Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
    1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

    Crikey! With all this morning's talk of 'stinkers', 'horrors' and 'shockers', I think I'll wait to see what @Tamara has to say... Some folks really do need a sense of perspective, at times!?

    It's all down to personal preference - to some a 'stinker' is when there isn't wall to wall sunshine and temperatures in the upper 20's Celcius, while broken cloud, sunny intervals and temperatures in the high teens or low 20's just isn't good enough for some. Personally speaking I'm more than happy with the latter but opinions will naturally differ.

    I sometimes wonder if the 'profile' section on the left side should have an option for 'Preferred Weather' - it would then be easier to judge the accuracy of any forecast statements because that would depend on the poster's preference.

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    I struggle to see GFS 6z coming off, its very poor even for mid Autumn so dont know how it could happen in mid Summer let alone mid Autumn. 

     

    S t i n k e r

    Edited by 38.7°C
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    3 hours ago, LRD said:

    FI horror show upcoming on the 6z:

    image.thumb.png.875344fe5a779e1ca1458bf1f70a121c.png

     

    Ok, I've got stick for using some emotive language. Fair enough, so I guess I'd better explain why the above is a 'horror' show for those who want settled, warm summer weather in summer (fancy that!)

    Basically you have a negatively tilted trough, centred just to Ireland's west, with the UK's name on it and then some sort of block over Iceland and then another negatively tilted trough angled towards us, leaving the Canadian coast, following that. So a bit crap for summer weather prospects

    But it might not happen as it's a fair way into the future but the trend seems to be going that way. I hope it doesn't

    Edited by LRD
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    I'll bow to John Holmes's greater knowledge here but I believe this shows the jet south of the UK (the red contour line?)

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

    So unsettled and West/North-Westerly

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ICON first out on the 12s, and in a weeks time, things settling down nicely with a UK high

    198606D1-ECF2-41DE-ABDE-A2D5EA376D5E.thumb.png.24531d230a1e387ad4b2b8d02e6ae970.png

    Let’s see what the other models throw out on a similar timescale this afternoon...

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Nice post from Buzz..and guess what..I found summer on the GEFS 6z!!!!? ? 
    16BE13B8-D2DF-47AB-BEB2-3B2D9DE7E816.thumb.png.416496fadce235b01ff17b25757ba6a3.png0E4B9765-7D70-4993-AF5D-B800FDCE9030.thumb.png.c2cc530a126ecba11aa7ae5297fa61e4.pngDF922365-1184-481E-85A8-1ECF67C88E91.thumb.png.513d70f06527b213c3dab9b46f1f8f47.pngA70A31DF-D5C8-4061-8950-3000BEFEAE7D.thumb.png.1f7b936cc93df11ea1e91e160c083535.png740676C8-C187-4271-8F99-A685246C61FD.thumb.png.eb97d317ad62167d6ca8baeb32afeded.pngA26259CA-B56A-4AF7-8DA9-487ED6308886.thumb.png.4f2b92ed7c311a7a0870508e302f9a94.png50C544A4-756B-4E72-9EF1-36112223AA39.thumb.png.ad92cd6f76f3a653fad8838b1fc49a78.png0A212644-D738-48C7-8AEF-293A0B28FE56.thumb.png.2860ecbc7ab62c2c09833f3fef0ddddf.png69C92ECF-4DBA-48C1-BCE5-E56474524B7A.thumb.png.37db121accab5a96e9bc9d9592140e1c.png09461B62-7ADA-45AF-BFDA-81BA13F32B49.thumb.png.dec8e1edd105744f82b30a7e3dedc0a5.png

     

    C951F40A-1503-4CFA-8D33-51682AE60EBC.jpeg

    Edited by JON SNOW
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    UKMO T144

    ECCD63FD-7A31-45E3-A47E-6A64FAC99501.thumb.gif.bb18451214b7b678249993642896969e.gif

    Not good if the weather we are looking for is outside T144, but with the low a thousand miles west, this should push the ridge over us at least for a while as per ICON.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    2 hours ago, LRD said:

    I'll bow to John Holmes's greater knowledge here but I believe this shows the jet south of the UK (the red contour line?)

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

    So unsettled and West/North-Westerly

    No it is not the jet just another contour line, this one the 564 DM line. Sometimes taken as the boundary of much warmer air below 128,000 ft (500 mb). I'll have a look at the predicted jet stream on GFS, who knows it may be in that region. Back shortly.

     

    This is the predicted 00z GFS run with the jetstream (around 30,000 ft), not far from the 564 line in places.

    image.thumb.png.b90a79758129fb8947c519708df144a8.png

    Valid next Sunday 12 July, about mid way between the NOAA 6-10 day 500 mb outlook.

    Edited by johnholmes
    adding text and chart
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    So, increasing signal now for settled weather next weekend, not sure how long it will last, but GFS following ICON, and an extrapolated UKMO, at T180:

    EB66F535-E71C-4F4D-BDE7-50838C5B9085.thumb.png.43acf8053a1199d6177dfa0bfd80330a.png

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    GFS 12Z very similar to UKMO at 144 this evening..

    Both models looking more positive now wrt Azores ridging into the UK..

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Today's CFSv2 update:

    wk1.wk2_20200703.z500.png

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