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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    1B176500-9F37-41B9-B2D0-320E247D007F.thumb.gif.47c32f2c1952d9443553734a6c0d4720.gif53B96381-48D3-4F05-8BA2-6E7396FAE647.thumb.gif.7368eaa85716cdb618dbf0d4786362ec.gif
     

    Here comes the heat again on the ukmo...

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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    1B176500-9F37-41B9-B2D0-320E247D007F.thumb.gif.47c32f2c1952d9443553734a6c0d4720.gif53B96381-48D3-4F05-8BA2-6E7396FAE647.thumb.gif.7368eaa85716cdb618dbf0d4786362ec.gif
     

    Here comes the heat again on the ukmo...

    Looking increasingly likely that the 20C isotherm may return next weekend. You used to wait years for it . .  😵

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    Just now, mb018538 said:

    ECM raw data has 32c next Friday, and overnight lows of 22-23c into Saturday morning. Could be up there with all time warm nights if that comes off. It’s then followed by temps of 34c on Saturday. Scorchio!

    Is that 34C a raw temp?

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    The ECM piles in the heat as well, not only that, the ridge to our east is then reinforced by the Azores high by day 8.

    image.thumb.gif.8f1c6167c74cd589519546346b436be7.gif

    This essentially forces any frontal systems away to the north and west.

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    Just now, Djdazzle said:

    Is that 34C a raw temp?

    183C8DC1-DA97-4117-A68C-24B450202458.thumb.jpeg.5888af354354bc2d138ca257f94904a7.jpeg

    Sure is - that’s at 12pm as well! Not expecting another repeat of yesterday as uppers are a smidge lower, but as they are at 18c, you’d have to say 35c must be on the cards again if that comes off!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    183C8DC1-DA97-4117-A68C-24B450202458.thumb.jpeg.5888af354354bc2d138ca257f94904a7.jpeg

    Sure is - that’s at 12pm as well! Not expecting another repeat of yesterday as uppers are a smidge lower, but as they are at 18c, you’d have to say 35c must be on the cards again if that comes off!

    Still time for those uppers to be upgraded! But that’s being greedy now!

    What will be noticeable is that it will be a lot more humid than yesterday, so will in all likelihood feel hotter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Stark differences between the GFS and UKMO/ECM. All models see a secondary disturbance running under the Icelandic trough around T120/T144, but while the UKMO/ECM stall the trough against rising heights, the GFS runs the trough over the top of the high. As a result, the GFS quickly pushes the heat away and limits us to a couple of hot days, while the UKMO/ECM look like maintaining the heat through the weekend and into the beginning of the following heat - the ECM once again pushing well into the mid 30s you'd think. 

    Considering the GFS op has been rather embarrassingly at odds with its own ensembles for several runs, not even mentioning the ECM ensembles, you'd have to put more faith in the UKMO/ECM solution, but with the nagging thought that this secondary low may end up a little closer to the UK than they currently show. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth


    Looks possible as though the 20c 850 isotherm may not be gone for long, ECM and GEM heading towards the mid 30s again next weekend, GFS ensembles looks although again the OPs run is doing that weird thing currently were it produces a cold outlier almost every run.  Still lots to resolved especially with a Hurricane buzz-sawing up the eastern seaboard of the US and I won’t feel confident about heat building for another few days yet. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

    183C8DC1-DA97-4117-A68C-24B450202458.thumb.jpeg.5888af354354bc2d138ca257f94904a7.jpeg

    Sure is - that’s at 12pm as well! Not expecting another repeat of yesterday as uppers are a smidge lower, but as they are at 18c, you’d have to say 35c must be on the cards again if that comes off!

    Well the ECM’s temperature projections for yesterday were way too low.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Some hot runs this morning , Navgem is amongst them .

    A80A2695-D693-43BA-B713-BEDAC936382C.png

    41B277B3-037A-45B0-AA30-9449F6940DCE.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Surprised that there aren’t more comments on the GEM - stunning run with the Azores high ridging back at the end.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    A very satisfactory evolution, 🙂

     

    anomaly evolution 1.jpg

    evolution 2.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Wow, that ECM run would bring some serious heat into the UK and next weekend we'd probably be seeing similar temperatures to yesterday!  Looking at the mean, the 850's are looking mighty impressive for Friday - Sunday. 🔥

    image.thumb.png.36a2ba4aa4e342ad352d35da60f5cc6c.pngimage.thumb.png.b7bcebd25f5412c63040333f56b394e0.pngimage.thumb.png.5d5c140211c7132129e24feef1a0819d.png  

    If this ECM run pans out, I'd say the all time high temperature *could* be under threat.  That said, this mornings GFS goes a different route so nothing is nailed down yet.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    Met Office raw data with a high of 33’C for Heathrow on Friday. Bearing in mind that the temperature projection often increases as we get nearer the time. As was the case for yesterday.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    Met Office raw data with a high of 33’C for Heathrow on Friday. Bearing in mind that the temperature projection often increases as we get nearer the time. As was the case for yesterday.

    Quite unusual to see such high maxes progged 6 days away on the automatic apps. As you say, these are normally upgraded as the day gets closer.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    14 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

    Mind you, this time last week, there was no sign of 20C uppers. So who knows?

    they began to show on sundays runs and more notably, the mean. Was always a passing shot and importantly they 20c isotherm passed across us during the day yesterday

     

    1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

    Well the ECM’s temperature projections for yesterday were way too low.

    always are Matt ........

     

    9 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

    in my opinion having weather like this at this time of year is redundant , the nights are beginning to draw in now and sundown in London by next weekend is 8.35pm , even earlier further SE so those who want to spend their evenings in the sun will be out of luck , this type of weather would have been more useful in second Half June , First Half July where people could enjoy it , most on here probably will still think it's great and will enjoy but I won't be one of them

    I'm pretty sure my opinion on this is in the minority ie ME so I'll say no more on it

    first half June whilst the kids are still at school ?  a warm evening is great irrespective of the sun having set.  I’m not a big fan of extreme heat but record breaking events is a different matter....... 

     

    if we could get a bit more dig south on the Atlantic trough then we may push that 20c back over us in a run of v hot days which could well put the temp record under threat (note uppers over e England 25 July 2019 were 22/23c) !!

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
    26 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    Quite unusual to see such high maxes progged 6 days away on the automatic apps. As you say, these are normally upgraded as the day gets closer.

    Im sure its due to taking the average for the time of year then factoring in the % chance of deviation from it depending on how far off your looking at. So at +24 hours they probably take 95% of model data but at +7 days take 60% for example.

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    they began to show on sundays runs and more notably, the mean. Was always a passing shot and importantly they 20c isotherm passed across us during the day yesterday

     

    always are Matt ........

     

    first half June whilst the kids are still at school ?  a warm evening is great irrespective of the sun having set.  I’m not a big fan of extreme heat but record breaking events is a different matter....... 

     

    if we could get a bit more dig south on the Atlantic trough then we may push that 20c back over us in a run of v hot days which could well put the temp record under threat 

    Could definitely be threatened. We’ve seen 35c achieved even in September a couple of times, in March (Cambs) and Bawtry (Notts). I don’t know exactly what years they were. 

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