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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    It’s got the feel of 1st July 2015. If I recall correctly, the temps on that one day plume were upgraded as it approached. BBC were talking about 32C for this Friday, which is usually always less than what is achieved.

    Edited by Djdazzle
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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    Very hot run this by latest GFS 12z- upper air temps +20c over the entirely of Kent and heading up to Suffolk

    Screenshot_20200727-172217_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Edited by Kentspur
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    13 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    Look at this UKMO chart @96 - 20c isotherm in place for the south coast.

    UW96-7.gif

    12z GEM nudges the 20c isotherm a bit further north...

    gem-1-102.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    36 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Wow, this could be one hot day.  Fair play to those who spotted this hot plume coming, I think @JON SNOW and @Steve Murr were the first to latch on to it!

    Cheers:drinks:

    Here’s something you don’t see often, nationwide warmth on Friday!..and hot for the s / se..you can probably add a few degrees to the Gfs numbers and there’s also a risk of thunderstorms being sparked and some drifting up from the near continent, Saturday not as hot but still pretty warm further s / se...enjoy the very brief return of summer.
    107B22FE-2B6E-4B1E-A18E-C4E8DD3E624F.thumb.png.ace5060ac4137b3b085b048412020ba4.png8B0CAFDF-056B-4838-BAFF-0022FC255564.thumb.png.c69ad0735b44f4829cb1dea0c847bb9f.pngEEAE2451-FF43-4319-B4A9-066628CF2DE6.thumb.png.562926841e7ce1786e4157d61709c591.png70E7466D-47D2-4080-8CA3-E079051F4497.thumb.png.a12e628abeee0a214e834444f87a9923.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

    Had to do a double take when I looked at the latest GFS run...midnight on August 1st...😮

    0E50C994-1CFD-4F87-81D6-53AD32DCBF31.thumb.png.800223285783d02c29abde452fa48f5b.png

    We are smashing the hottest ever UK night time temperature there with a 29C! 😂 (23.9C in Brighton on August 3rd 1990 is the record I think?)

    Got to love the GFS...😄

    Edited by Mr Frost
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    On 14/07/2020 at 19:12, Zak M said:

    GEM ends on a very fine note!

    anim_azi1.thumb.gif.ecdb249db4cd8f5cf8663978199c64dc.gif   anim_iab8.thumb.gif.cb3527478460e913032a41c54ec08db7.gif

    I've still got my hopes up for a late July/early August consolation.

    You could say I was right 🤭

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    9 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

    Had to do a double take when I looked at the latest GFS run...midnight on August 1st...😮

    0E50C994-1CFD-4F87-81D6-53AD32DCBF31.thumb.png.800223285783d02c29abde452fa48f5b.png

    We are smashing the hottest ever UK night time temperature there with a 29C! 😂 (23.9C in Brighton on August 3rd 1990 is the record I think?)

    Got to love the GFS...😄

    That's not correct - GFS has 24/25C over central London at Midnight and 15-18C for most other areas. 

    Also don't forget the 23.9C was probably a 5 or 6am temps, I can remember of 10/08/03 it was still 29C here at 10pm and 31C I think in London so on the most extreme days a 28/29C would be just about possible in London. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

    GFS T96:

    539B14CD-109C-4822-8BC8-1933AA03425A.thumb.png.692994c8497a87e15164f4e3d28b8178.png

    Wow, this could be one hot day.  Fair play to those who spotted this hot plume coming, I think @JON SNOW and @Steve Murr were the first to latch on to it!

    What next Mike... How about giving a shout out to those who said it would only be a 2 day affair at best, or award points to those who called this plume at the earliest timeframe.. 🤣

    Yes its looking like an hot one.. Arpege brings possibly 33c for some.. Let's just see how this plays out.. Sunshine amounts and wind will be a huge factor to those maxes.. 

    xx_model-en-330-0_moddeu_2020072712_99_18_1.png

    xx_model-en-330-0_modusa_2020072712_99_18_1.png

    xx_model-en-330-0_modgbr_2020072712_96_18_1.png

    xx_model-en-330-0_modfra_2020072712_96_18_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 hour ago, h2005__uk__ said:

    I'm still struggling to see why the peak of the heat isn't reaching further east (i.e. Essex/Suffolk). The setup looks similar to the heat on a few occasions in Summer 2019 - i.e. SE winds and the peak around 30-32C - and Essex tapped into this.

    Is there a reason why the heat (according to the models) seems to not be making its way as far as Essex this time?

    The issue at the end of June seemed to be easterly winds but most models now seem to be showing a SE wind for Friday but highs of 'only' 26-27C in Essex.

    Both GFS & ICON have 10m winds coming a direct easterly gusting 30kmh+ across parts of Kent, Essex and East Anglia hence the temps being pegged back, in fact Arpege has 50kmh gusts in parts of the south east. Highest temps will likely be from Gatwick, up through west London, the Home Counties and along to Warks maybe down towards Bristol. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Although this chart doesn’t appear to support winds from a direct easterly detection:

    image.thumb.png.22ee740552974898f8058f52f7a13b7f.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

    Although this chart doesn’t appear to support winds from a direct easterly detection:

    image.thumb.png.22ee740552974898f8058f52f7a13b7f.png

    does for Kent looking at that

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    does for Kent looking at that

    I don’t follow you.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    On 22/07/2020 at 13:15, JON SNOW said:

    Whisper it but I actually have a good feeling about later next week, I’m seeing some potential for an influx of continental air from the s / se..I actually think we could catch a break from the cooler Atlantic airflow in the not too distant future..watch this space!😜

    Honestly, no more trumpet blowing from me!😜 🎺 

    353CABC6-D925-47B2-A44B-5828962AF0F0.thumb.gif.f861020bfe1dda82e1e239ab8c654bd4.gifEA33C0DF-F37A-4F51-AEBE-50B128CBA526.thumb.png.16b3ae924dd02f227ec8538765bac01b.png7EB386A1-62D4-46AC-994E-2FE38917B810.thumb.gif.8541398187b6639ab3da0e2797a85200.gifF72747AE-F8D7-4D1B-A555-AE62E206D174.thumb.png.c861db09d4e3b1d116ac08b5be218043.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    9 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    I don’t follow you.

    Easterly barbs into the south east which is GFS temps are lower there, same for parts of EA. Other models similar. Still a small nuance, could shift slightly.  

    GFSOPUK12_102_9.png

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Interesting to see the UKV model showing max's of 25 - 26°C across much of England on Friday, with the exception of the coasts around East Anglia, Kent etc

    That seems rather cautious, but it's also a couple of degrees down on yesterday's 15Z run.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    Interesting to see the UKV model showing max's of 25 - 26°C across much of England on Friday, with the exception of the coasts around East Anglia, Kent etc

    That seems rather cautious, but it's also a couple of degrees down on yesterday's 15Z run.

    Has to be wrong surely? Arpege much higher.

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    Posted
  • Location: herts
  • Weather Preferences: frosty mornings,freezing fog(makes the trees look nice!),snow,summer storms
  • Location: herts

    Love the law of chaos with our weather folks. #love our weather. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM with the heat too on Friday, T96:

    F9EC399C-60F8-4CF8-A641-FD70CF67E612.thumb.gif.bd159a6b88a8d6fb59b427d710a22b35.gif

    And apologies to anyone who called this plume early and I didn’t shout out in my last post.  I certainly didn’t call it, that’s for sure!

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Navgem 🔥 

    6E2F0CFE-705B-41EC-8987-073131B159C6.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

    Navgem 🔥 

    6E2F0CFE-705B-41EC-8987-073131B159C6.png

    I literally don’t know why the NAVGEM does this...I don’t.  Unless it is a rubbish model?  😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Some very hot looking charts on Friday. Ordinarily with the 20c line in play in peak summer, you’d expect 35c+....but with a wet summer so far, and no build up of heat from the preceding days and a slight ESE component, it knocks a few degrees off. Shame it’s only looking like a one day wonder though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Some very hot looking charts on Friday. Ordinarily with the 20c line in play in peak summer, you’d expect 35c+....but with a wet summer so far, and no build up of heat from the preceding days and a slight ESE component, it knocks a few degrees off. Shame it’s only looking like a one day wonder though.

    The 2015 plume was preceded by unsettled conditions with no build up of heat either, and managed 36.7C. Not sure what the uppers were that day. You'd expect 20C uppers to produce 34C at least - with dry ground, you probably could get another couple of degrees out of it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Interesting to see that we are seeing a more aggressive progression of events at the end of the week. Looks like we will see a cold front march east during Saturday so Friday will be the peak, however as a trade off we will likely get the maximum potential for heat in return with little in the way of cooler air undercutting the plume.

    For reference 1st July 2015 did see several days of above average temperatures as June actually finished okay with 30c recorded on the last day of the month. The plume does look quite similar in progression but at this point I will punt for 32c quite widely with 34c probably being the maximum.

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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