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Model output discussion - into July 2020

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ECM clusters show uncertainty over where we go once the initial plume clears - still the possibility of a renewed ridge from the SW and low pressure remaining weaker or further north than on the op run

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020072600_192.

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Posted (edited)

Going via gaining supports one has t to begin to wonder that August is setting up for the wow-summer month...slowly slowly catchy monkey 🐵!!!......

MT8_London_ens (26).png

Edited by tight isobar
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4 hours ago, JON SNOW said:

The ECM 0z op certainly screams Plume Plume Plume!!! later in the week..fingers crossed!😜..I kind of feel quite chuffed that the plume I’ve been tracking and believing in for quite a while and hoping for looks like occurring..despite 500mb persistent flat zonal Blah Blah!!!!..cheers:drinks:

05CB2A4C-A8E6-462E-9210-902E678C140D.thumb.gif.f8c5b5dbd17fd9c2ea841907f9b9230b.gif1D1162F6-B0E3-4467-B871-AB0B6C8F6ED4.thumb.png.ea06376ad24a6572f9cc0f07a15d3f30.png9F832AEF-85EC-4E26-BA40-15D2D05ACF35.thumb.png.034276011a838544cdde613c3102489b.pngFBC69F37-33ED-4AE8-8105-C2E8EF95BC1C.thumb.png.c0ef742aab27ecc1f7c952bab8c34ccc.png2593E981-C36C-4E08-8573-A647040FAC5D.thumb.png.3dda5e2a341e83f501cc960e834ad822.pngBDD24E35-4AF7-4F33-A2E9-010BBC3B26D2.thumb.png.0c58e8751d17daabab848825d0a380f4.png

............. but we have already established that a transitory plume wont show in the 500mb mean... and the mean outlook for the 6-14 day period  remains a westerly one. Enjoy your day or so of heat, i will!

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1 hour ago, Zak M said:

Here's something for the die-hard cold lovers...

You might fancy the 12z CFS from yesterday, even if it doesn't come off.

cfs-0-4380.thumb.png.c1d8fd128ebac2914c435fbbf2ea7ed3.png   cfs-2-4380.thumb.png.7aa3edb8647c0ae98d89e4da1b46f998.png

I'm more of a summertime 'lurker'... But sure +5 days seems like FI. Always +10 days chasing summer plumes or winter beasts... What can I say... 😂 

Well this cheered me up at least 🤪

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1 hour ago, Zak M said:

Here's something for the die-hard cold lovers...

You might fancy the 12z CFS from yesterday, even if it doesn't come off.

cfs-0-4380.thumb.png.c1d8fd128ebac2914c435fbbf2ea7ed3.png   cfs-2-4380.thumb.png.7aa3edb8647c0ae98d89e4da1b46f998.png

Looks a bit marginal in the south coast, sleet south of the M4 😢 

But you know what they say, get the cold in first and the uppers will follow!! 😉😜

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Posted (edited)

Come to Papa 🥳UKMO

DE9770C4-7A92-4D01-BDD3-BB0AA034A969.gif
 

perhaps I spoke to soon . 

8A1B8387-F67B-4C60-9167-7C461919729D.gif

Edited by Mark wheeler
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GFS 12z has the plume at T126 affecting more the SE:

18A633A2-5067-49FA-8C14-2DB675814ED9.thumb.png.0eb08ee7aeeb1044807e9be52991b5c7.png3D1BD934-3A14-4F39-B1C5-C717B329493D.thumb.png.8469fae08171f3adcc897a963ae321a7.png

But looking a little longer term, here at T168 and we have an Azores ridge...

D36B2633-036C-4555-845B-A963A5FF3C0E.thumb.png.b456082cfa96d201b0c8b6f26b4efd80.png

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4 hours ago, Zak M said:

Bit of a crazy run that is 😅

gfseuw-0-378.thumb.png.3dd674473935f302e18457f26ae95ea9.png   gfseuw-1-384.thumb.png.c69e4636ab65ee6f33a73ff751dbd444.png

stays in place long enough, these next 4 weeks or so, I'd say the window for best chance of a 40 degrees

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Well there is a +20C there at T126 on the GEM right over my location:

0FAF6263-1FBF-4D7B-B58F-EB5A66E92FBC.thumb.png.7ecf5008d1c0056b0f78ddf34bba21e9.png

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GEM, GFS & UKMO all clear any warmth much earlier on their 12z runs removing Saturday as a warm day in the south and quicker than the morning, happens nearly every there's some sort of plume involved about 5-7days out the models suddenly accelerate the eastwards movement only to then relax it a couple of days later, I'd still fancy Saturday as a hot one despite what the models churn out this evening. That said GFS is just awful beyond the weekend with immediate payback weather into next week with more Atlantic dross..... Still I'm happy, max here today was a summery 35c, dropped by to 31c and I'm heading for some dinner shortly so winner 🙂 

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Essex unusually missed out on the peak of the heat in late June due to a E/SE wind. The forecast for the heat next weekend again has a SE wind for Essex. Will this restrict the temps again?

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Hmmm, ECM T120:

9D572DFF-1D7E-4E4F-9451-2021EB33FF76.thumb.gif.3542bcce7f395ea248fa672461183d72.gifF177AC37-6B5D-451B-A746-B8FDA7825639.thumb.gif.16544fd86b6352002e3b13941114d095.gif

This starting to look like a really hot one for the south...

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Hot hot ecm for thursday and friday!!!ecm has the 18 degrees 850hpa temps travelling all the way to manchester by 12z friday😱🔥

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Hmmm, ECM T120:

9D572DFF-1D7E-4E4F-9451-2021EB33FF76.thumb.gif.3542bcce7f395ea248fa672461183d72.gifF177AC37-6B5D-451B-A746-B8FDA7825639.thumb.gif.16544fd86b6352002e3b13941114d095.gif

This starting to look like a really hot one for the south...

I just posted to say I predict it’s going to be a stinking ecm tonight , you can all blame me when it goes T up later 🔥

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Again almost zero hint of convective activity with any breakdown through Friday night and Saturday the convective drought will continue. ECM also rapidly removes the warmth so a one day wonder likely so little time really to tuck into those 18-20C uppers which after a couple of days of day on day heating you'd expect to deliver 33-35C, might sneak a 30C up  into the south east.

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11 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

I just posted to say I predict it’s going to be a stinking ecm tonight , you can all blame me when it goes T up later 🔥

Hello Mark

I trust you and family are well.

Did you mean "stinking" as in sweating perspiration without using deodorant, or a terrible ecm for those liking summery weather.

Or more likely did you mean "stonking" and it was a typo.

Kind Regards

Dave

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