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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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I'd rather go without 30C for this July as it just tempts fate and then next July could end up being "the overdue July without a 30C". 

Looking at the 00z and 06z, I think theres growing support for Summer to finally arrive, two months late. Bear in mind all arrivals into the UK must quarantine for two weeks so hopefully that includes the Azores. 😁

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...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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By this July’s standards this is a decent looking mean in approx 1 weeks time..god I love being proved right..but wait, I could be wrong..see how modest I am!!!!!😜:shok:770A827C-3FD5-4F5B-A53E-122B19EADF40.thumb.gif.0732095c89752dd0bec335986fffd85a.gifB2F7FE3D-C7E2-47FA-ACF2-5E644BB32692.thumb.gif.8efc210ef824a69149027d0eaf4b907d.gifC1D89B7B-C5E7-4645-964E-8B59B3FDBBB1.thumb.png.7e5846831bf6b779fd18921a667fd378.png32F98DC7-A12B-4CCF-9D08-53E0D299D26F.thumb.png.fbb3adf36bcdc4ca69f3a4c6a203e8dd.png

 

 

Edited by JON SNOW
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The GFS06Z idea of building a ridge over the top of a weakening trough has little support in the clusters - perhaps cluster 3 is most similar at D8

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020072500_192.

However, the trend has been weakening trough, strengthening ridge to the east, which may help extend the hot snap slightly. Depends on the ridge getting established and forcing a negative tilt on the Atlantic trough. Hard to call. 

Definitely some encouragement that there may be more ridging events in the following week

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020072500_360.

Edited by Man With Beard
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1 hour ago, JON SNOW said:

Oh jeez, wow, I was talking about plumes several days ago when the 500mb was having non of it!..fingers crossed we can squeeze out a plume from this generally poor July..and then hopefully august will deliver!😜

To be fair, the 500mb mean charts wont show a transitory plume, over a 5 days / 7 day period , the fact that theres been a slight re-adjustment is indeed a good sign.

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Looks like Exeter now mentioned the much warmer conditions by late next week.. It looks to be brief with cooler more unsettled conditions following on later in the weekend.. Pretty much backed up by the ECM ens.. Hopefully something better again towards mid next month.. Hopefully plume 3..

graphe0_00_242_142___.png

graphe1_00_242_142___.png

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Is that a Kent Clipper already showing on the GFS? Not liking how the trough loses all power leading to such a weak plume, and hoping ECM 12z backs up its overnight run!

Edited by Lance M
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13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM excellent for heat at T144:

0A9DB7E0-C662-48BB-88D3-30ADA2571E8B.thumb.png.2cd7e1a087852496bf7bbbc954997aea.png68FC4212-0F1C-4F98-9889-F2615A529B3E.thumb.png.d6c1d6585dc11f383b75fa603abe62ba.png

Longer term, the Azores Scandi link up is starting to look the form horse, GEM at T204:30F43364-7FEE-426F-9A38-68BA1E89C913.thumb.png.7f39283188442085cd134da88757e30a.png

Let’s see what the ECM has to say...

Edit: Mark beat me to it...

Perhaps some promising little trends this evening, Hopefully the  Ecm is great 👍 

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2 hours ago, Mark wheeler said:

Gem

7A7BA889-A2B4-402E-9A4A-C4B96EC34FE6.png

4E777FE1-ABA6-47D5-81F2-A89F2C14ADD4.png
 

And then 

0B9AC884-A42D-4819-85DC-B0F65A328BFE.png

 

1 hour ago, Mark wheeler said:

Perhaps some promising little trends this evening, Hopefully the  Ecm is great 👍 

This chart here adds some too +20c Uppers skirting the South Coast before this then reaching as far North as the Northern home counties on GEM1923826931_Screenshot_20200725-195834_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.8ea87f8192447b6eba182b131d994b9b.jpg

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1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM is very disappointing. 1 hot day Friday before it breaks down on sat with Thundery showers and then very unsettled by day 10

Isn't that normal August though, the Atlantic normally dominates whole month

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