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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    I'd rather go without 30C for this July as it just tempts fate and then next July could end up being "the overdue July without a 30C". 

    Looking at the 00z and 06z, I think theres growing support for Summer to finally arrive, two months late. Bear in mind all arrivals into the UK must quarantine for two weeks so hopefully that includes the Azores. 😁

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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    By this July’s standards this is a decent looking mean in approx 1 weeks time..god I love being proved right..but wait, I could be wrong..see how modest I am!!!!!😜:shok:770A827C-3FD5-4F5B-A53E-122B19EADF40.thumb.gif.0732095c89752dd0bec335986fffd85a.gifB2F7FE3D-C7E2-47FA-ACF2-5E644BB32692.thumb.gif.8efc210ef824a69149027d0eaf4b907d.gifC1D89B7B-C5E7-4645-964E-8B59B3FDBBB1.thumb.png.7e5846831bf6b779fd18921a667fd378.png32F98DC7-A12B-4CCF-9D08-53E0D299D26F.thumb.png.fbb3adf36bcdc4ca69f3a4c6a203e8dd.png

     

     

    Edited by JON SNOW
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    The GFS06Z idea of building a ridge over the top of a weakening trough has little support in the clusters - perhaps cluster 3 is most similar at D8

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020072500_192.

    However, the trend has been weakening trough, strengthening ridge to the east, which may help extend the hot snap slightly. Depends on the ridge getting established and forcing a negative tilt on the Atlantic trough. Hard to call. 

    Definitely some encouragement that there may be more ridging events in the following week

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020072500_360.

    Edited by Man With Beard
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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    1 hour ago, JON SNOW said:

    Oh jeez, wow, I was talking about plumes several days ago when the 500mb was having non of it!..fingers crossed we can squeeze out a plume from this generally poor July..and then hopefully august will deliver!😜

    To be fair, the 500mb mean charts wont show a transitory plume, over a 5 days / 7 day period , the fact that theres been a slight re-adjustment is indeed a good sign.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Looks like Exeter now mentioned the much warmer conditions by late next week.. It looks to be brief with cooler more unsettled conditions following on later in the weekend.. Pretty much backed up by the ECM ens.. Hopefully something better again towards mid next month.. Hopefully plume 3..

    graphe0_00_242_142___.png

    graphe1_00_242_142___.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Hmmm, direct southerly anyone? UKMO at T144:

    E371ED2A-85E6-4347-8A9A-1B8690537941.thumb.gif.d04052b82b03dd53cba45ce3ab833f05.gif243F3ED4-A6DE-4261-AAB8-43F6A25A105A.thumb.gif.b9591d2ca010baa309f10d3945dde56e.gif

    Should bring the heat next couple of days, I would think...

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    And on GFS too, but more importantly it goes on to produce a ridge from the Azores, T144, T168:

    D6DB8AE9-DBE5-4AEF-91F6-0A3F187BFBD7.thumb.png.17780587a2144a03027ac59f29aedb7e.png1CF02F6C-A99F-43DC-A52E-9C97E44D43A0.thumb.png.f21d94f2e52bc549bd027050321b5c5d.png

    Suddenly, from nowhere, we could be looking at the first decent August in years...

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, NE Hampshire
  • Location: Bramley, NE Hampshire

    Is that a Kent Clipper already showing on the GFS? Not liking how the trough loses all power leading to such a weak plume, and hoping ECM 12z backs up its overnight run!

    Edited by Lance M
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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Gem

    7A7BA889-A2B4-402E-9A4A-C4B96EC34FE6.png

    4E777FE1-ABA6-47D5-81F2-A89F2C14ADD4.png
     

    And then 

    0B9AC884-A42D-4819-85DC-B0F65A328BFE.png

    Edited by Mark wheeler
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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    GEM excellent for heat at T144:

    0A9DB7E0-C662-48BB-88D3-30ADA2571E8B.thumb.png.2cd7e1a087852496bf7bbbc954997aea.png68FC4212-0F1C-4F98-9889-F2615A529B3E.thumb.png.d6c1d6585dc11f383b75fa603abe62ba.png

    Longer term, the Azores Scandi link up is starting to look the form horse, GEM at T204:30F43364-7FEE-426F-9A38-68BA1E89C913.thumb.png.7f39283188442085cd134da88757e30a.png

    Let’s see what the ECM has to say...

    Edit: Mark beat me to it...

    Perhaps some promising little trends this evening, Hopefully the  Ecm is great 👍 

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Interesting from ukmo - looks to me like the trough could stall and disrupt in a SE direction after that - might delay a breakdown, but might also cut off the hottest air before it arrives. 

    UW144-21.GIF?25-19

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    This is what summer chasing is all about, 850hPa temperatures pushing the 20C mark... 

    graphe3_1000___-0.12574_51.5085_Londres.

    I note the upper air averages around 10C for the rest of the period. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    At the moment the plume is transitory, well most are, tbh!  JMA the latest model to brush the south with +20C uppers on the 12z, at T156:

    0A1DC31F-AAE3-4E57-A2D4-7FFFC6E5D152.thumb.gif.30d6dc066e4b86d28a7883f4289211fb.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    2 hours ago, Mark wheeler said:

    Gem

    7A7BA889-A2B4-402E-9A4A-C4B96EC34FE6.png

    4E777FE1-ABA6-47D5-81F2-A89F2C14ADD4.png
     

    And then 

    0B9AC884-A42D-4819-85DC-B0F65A328BFE.png

     

    1 hour ago, Mark wheeler said:

    Perhaps some promising little trends this evening, Hopefully the  Ecm is great 👍 

    This chart here adds some too +20c Uppers skirting the South Coast before this then reaching as far North as the Northern home counties on GEM1923826931_Screenshot_20200725-195834_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.8ea87f8192447b6eba182b131d994b9b.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    ECM is very disappointing. 1 hot day Friday before it breaks down on sat with Thundery showers and then very unsettled by day 10

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    3 minutes ago, ribster said:

    ECM1-216.gif

    Hmmm

    Deep FI. But the ECM is total rubbish, it has to be said.

    Edited by Djdazzle
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

    ECM is very disappointing. 1 hot day Friday before it breaks down on sat with Thundery showers and then very unsettled by day 10

    Isn't that normal August though, the Atlantic normally dominates whole month

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Isn't that normal August though, the Atlantic normally dominates whole month

    Only it doesn’t.

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