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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    Yes I totally agree with this, the GEM 0z was about the bounds of the envelope of current model runs, but this is over a week away at the moment, there is a significant chance of a westwards correction, and it is well worth watching on the models over the next few days, the models might have it properly nailed by Monday, maybe?  

    Yep, the deep low that sets up this wave break doesn’t even exist yet, and the models have it moving quite rapidly across the Atlantic and past the UK. It may get held up more than shown. It’s still 8 days away, so outside of the reliable frame. It probably won’t become clear until through the weekend.

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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Good job Nick Sussex is not on here, he'd be referring to this as 'Plumegate'!  It's a short lived affair at the moment, however, it will be interesting to see if the pattern shifts north and west as advertised by Steve M.  

    The 240 looks like it's *perhaps* lining up another shot with the low filling in to the north. 

    image.thumb.png.752aad9c590fc826bd08e4806456275c.png 

    Still, all academic at this range but reasons to be cheerful.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Well, even if this plume doesn’t materialise, at least we have something to discuss other than the total borefest charts of recent times!

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Great Trend this evening , Navgem isn’t as good  as the ecm that’s for sure .

    ABC0E208-1D9C-4AE2-BC10-7637396A189B.png

    C11F300A-4D11-4A3F-A245-F0E5EC8C64D9.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    On 21/07/2020 at 19:25, JON SNOW said:

     

    Something a bit more interesting from the models today - longer term, compared to what we've endured for 4 weeks now - signs of a possible break from the atlantic, low pressure stalling out to the west allowing a draw of southerly air from the south and ridge development - is this a trend, or a one day here, gone the next. ECM output looks very good for start of August if you want something warm at least, not sure how stable the airstream would be though, could be quite thundery - liking the signs of heights building to the west as well, with low pressure far to our NW, if only.. 

    Would be good to see a few days at least of warm dry sunny weather.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Thanks for all the updates, peeps... I'm really rather hopeful of seeing further improvements, in terms of 'plumeworthiness', on the overnight runs!:yahoo:

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    ECM 12z is quite interesting plays with extreme heat 35C in nearby Benelux. 

    AF0ADD3B-1186-4DB0-9A94-AB2757239C8D.thumb.png.790b75ada53541a3613fea7e1a3f7c83.png3DC2FBE0-084D-4105-B3A6-56A21B8D2896.thumb.png.9fbf9d2859a9ae2134fd1b1dff53b9b4.png

     

    Edited by Daniel*
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    ECM 12z is quite interesting plays with extreme heat 35C in nearby Benelux. 

    AF0ADD3B-1186-4DB0-9A94-AB2757239C8D.thumb.png.790b75ada53541a3613fea7e1a3f7c83.png3DC2FBE0-084D-4105-B3A6-56A21B8D2896.thumb.png.9fbf9d2859a9ae2134fd1b1dff53b9b4.png

     

    Yes, and there is plenty of time still to nudge that scenario westwards....watch this space.  ECM mean T192, doesn’t really tell us much, need to wait for the clusters, but the plume scenario looks to be in the mix:

    96CFB048-B5B3-4DFC-B4B5-D9281358F782.thumb.gif.8c372a44f48a3c827ae25b06cceb0884.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.gif.51c79384244dd105adacec5ec1f31a1d.gif

    When there’s this much uncertainty at day 6, you can’t have confidence beyond. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    image.thumb.gif.51c79384244dd105adacec5ec1f31a1d.gif

    When there’s this much uncertainty at day 6, you can’t have confidence beyond. 

    So that is the low that is pushing the high over us, and then providing the potential plume event. It is uncertain, and from the charts at T144 I have posted, GEM and ECM are more confident that this will impact us, GFS not at all, so may need another couple of runs to narrow this down, but these are still the most interesting model runs during high summer.....

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    image.thumb.gif.51c79384244dd105adacec5ec1f31a1d.gif

    When there’s this much uncertainty at day 6, you can’t have confidence beyond. 

    Am I missing something a small region in North Atlantic? Perhaps a low may end heat quickly but I think it’s a decent mean for a big warm up while probable brief and more SE centric as normal. T192 has 12C isotherm touching south coast. I’m praying we don’t see 30°C on the last day of July, on course to be first without since 2011 stats like this don’t come very often nowadays so it makes for a refreshing change.

    53DE59EF-4CF2-45AC-A235-AB2932E6377A.thumb.gif.b0aa32ccb660e2496aac555dd3124f8c.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    Those CFS monthly temp anomalies once more show not one of the next 8 months being warmer than average across all of the UK- a cool September a particularly cold October a very cold December and an extremely cold January on this latest run! All other months slightly cooler or average. Seems a consistent signal

    Screenshot_20200723-210816_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20200723-210822_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20200723-210831_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20200723-210835_Samsung Internet.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    ECM @192hrs looks good with a broad area of 20c isotherm through France then it all get blasted away quickly by 216 all to rapidly. A Westward correct and delay by a further 24hrs - jackpot and 30-35c on the last day of the month, it’s pretty dry down so would take much in a southerly to get decent maxes out of 16-20c uppers. Any eastwards correction and it’s teens to low 20s all the all way. Given the orientation of the jet this profile would need massive modification for much more of a westward correction unlikely, but could happen I guess. 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

    Quite a lot of change over the Pacific is forecast for the next fortnight. Our increased likelihood of seeing some heat and potential thundery breakdowns is connected to that.

    I think we could see quite a bit more evolution to next week's outlook. I don't even consider the path of the Mon-Tue low to be sorted yet - it could be further north and west. Though I realise, probably not by enough for most to appreciate it!

    More room for substantial developments later in the week. No telling quite how that will affect the potential plume (coverage, speed of arrival, peak intensity...).

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Hold ya horses there folks.. The EC46 is not really on board with this plume.. Conditions look better around mid week through til Friday.. Warm in the SE.. no great shakes elsewhere, and conditions deteriorate come next Weekend with cooler showery conditions being flagged up. 

    Low Pressure to the NW come next weekend and into the following week are the current call, the flow again is of a largely cool orientation.. Will update further as the run progresses. 

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    1 minute ago, MATT☀️ said:

    Hold ya horses there folks.. The EC46 is not really on board with this plume.. Conditions look better around mid week through til Friday.. Warm in the SE.. no great shakes elsewhere, and conditions deteriorate come next Weekend with cooler showery conditions being flagged up. 

    Not too worried about this yet. Still a week away, and the EC46 have been as dire at that range as virtually all other output.

    Let’s see what tomorrow’s runs bring.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    Not too worried about this yet. Still a week away, and the EC46 have been as dire at that range as virtually all other output.

    Let’s see what tomorrow’s runs bring.

    The 46 has been rock solid with its predictions of a broad Wstly flow, and the Azores High restricted to the SW all Summer.. And I'm just bringing the latest guidance for the members who don't have access.. But regarding overall consistency, the 46 and those NOAA  charts have been streets ahead of the other models. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    6 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

    The 46 has been rock solid with its predictions of a broad Wstly flow, and the Azores High restricted to the SW all Summer.. And I'm just bringing the latest guidance for the members who don't have access.. But regarding overall consistency, the 46 and those NOAA  charts have been streets ahead of the other models. 

    I’m sure at some point the EC46 were backing more settled and warmer conditions for the U.K. - may have been around or just before mid-June. Maybe I’m a little scarred by their epic failure a couple of winters ago.

    Even with a broad westerly flow, surely brief but intense plumes can still occur?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    15 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    I’m sure at some point the EC46 were backing more settled and warmer conditions for the U.K. - may have been around or just before mid-June. Maybe I’m a little scarred by their epic failure a couple of winters ago.

    Even with a broad westerly flow, surely brief but intense plumes can still occur?

    Yes mate they can, I won't dispute that. My main point was the 46 as never been on board for any sustained ridging so far this Summer, and in that respect its been close to the mark.. Your correct in saying how it failed in that 2018 Winter, but tbh I think Glosea and other models did also. Perhaps the Spanish model come closest with its idea of the Azores High ruining our Winter. Just looked a little further towards mid month and it seems to be following the met office script of changeable, before some signs of a settling down towards the middle part of the month.. But like you say we can't be sure of these outcomes as they can go quite astray at times. Nothing would please me more than a cracking end to Summer,and while there is time.. There is hope. 👍

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Clusters... complete split on the mini-ridge/plume potential! 

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020072312_192.

    Still, a lot of progress from 48 hours ago when only about 20% of members were going for it. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    I think the main danger from the parallel GFS 18z at T234 in the eastern part of the UK would be large number 8’s and 12’s falling from the sky, you’d know if one hit you.

    17019066-B106-45D1-A9B3-6E932C8A9B92.thumb.png.0e26c33b9a8602ab2e02b26e874d2a2e.png

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District

    Sorry Mike, just woke up.

    Are those 8's and 12's, shoe or bowling ball sizes ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    The GFS 00Z is screaming potential, for next Friday evening... yes, I know!:oldlaugh:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    And then, it's just screaming!

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Ooh er, missus:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    He haw hee haw...Come on... it's better than endless flat westerlies!:oldgood:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    And, there's something of the 'tart's (sorry 'sex worker''s) knickers' about the GEFS 00Z ensembles::oops:

    t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

    t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

    NH profiles:

    npsh500mean-006.png    npsh500mean-102.png

    npsh500mean-240.png    npsh500mean-384.png

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