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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Not surprised there are no comments on the GFS op.

    Apart from the odd day or two it's unsettled throughout with a wash out for the North West in particular. 

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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...ūüĎł Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed¬†suspicious¬†the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    You don’t need to look at anything else on the GFS other than the 300mb Jet whizzing across the Atlantic out of south east Canada. The jet streak is flat and aimed at or just south if the U.K. for almost the entire run and at time around 150knts. With that in place we are never going to get anything better than a transitioning ridge between low pressures. On the plus side while it’s like that at least a trough won’t become anchored over the U.K. ECM back to settling down at day 10 so little indication of anything better than the odd average day for some time to come. First half of summer as a whole starting to look very 4 or 5 out of 10 at best.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    21 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

    Perhaps no comments because people are getting up and getting ready for work?..hmmm, just a thought!

    Anyway, looking at the GEFS 0z mean which is a better guide than an operational, next week gradually improves, especially across the south and I still feel there is some very summery potential during the mid July period and hopefully beyond..call me a cherry picker..  ?..I don’t mind!?

     

    Both the ECM and GFS means have been poor of late with their continued effort to have the Azores ridge winning when all we are seeing is ridge, trough, ridge, trough. 

    The ECM op is similar to the GFS op with no real settled weather, particularly again for the North West where Summer has struggled to arrive after an amazing Spring.

    Here's hoping the 2and half of July brings something better.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    I'll take a flat jet now, and for the next 4-6wks, if it means we get a block Autumn/Winter ??

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    7 minutes ago, SteveB said:

    I'll take a flat jet now, and for the next 4-6wks, if it means we get a block Autumn/Winter ??

    Yeah but you know it’ll probably stay flat for 9months until the end of March and we’ll need canoes to get about!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry, West Midlands, 96m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorm, downpours (Extremes)
  • Location: Coventry, West Midlands, 96m ASL

    To be honest, Ecm 00z looks a tad thundery after T + 192hrs with quite a warm low pressure system coming slowly, staying around al lway to 240hrs wouildn't mind it coming off actually, but uncertain at this stage

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    For what it is worth my view of the latest 500 mb anomaly charts and the possible surface weather 6-14 days ahead.

     Thursday 2 July

    Ec-gfs and some differences in how they treat any small +ve height rises over w’ern Europe, ec and any such are further e than gfs which shows a flat w’y from the main trough off eastern us seaboard but these small +ve heights extend from w’ern Europe over muc of the uk, just how much effect this will have with the w’ly flow remains to be seen, (perhaps a nw-se split in how settled or unsettled the surface weather is?. The gfs plot has a stronger flow over the uk than the more trough’ish pattern shown by ec?

    Noaa shows something of a ‚Äėbit of both‚Äô with the w‚Äôly flow like gfs and very little height rises showing.

    None of them suggest anything other than transitory surface ridging in the 6-10 day period. Nor is there any sign on the noaa 8-14 of any real decrease in the 500 mb w’ly flow with a rounded trough over the uk and another one over the east of n America.

    Summation being no major ridging at height or surface even out to 14 days, so the best that might occur is for slightly warmer and more settled most of the time the further se one lives. The further nw then average temperature levels and rather more changeable.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    FWIW John H is right, the Gfs 6z op (for example) is mixed, to say the least..can’t really say it’s great because it isn’t but I will wait for the ensembles which may show something better..

    PS..I still believe there is some very summery weather to come this month..ever the optimist some will say but I utterly refuse to write off July on July 2nd!!!!!!!?

    Edited by JON SNOW
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    9 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

    FWIW John H is right, the Gfs 6z op (for example) is mixed, to say the least..can’t really say it’s great because it isn’t but I will wait for the ensembles which may show something better..

    PS..I still believe there is some very summery weather to come this month..ever the optimist some will say but I utterly refuse to write off July on July 2nd!!!!!!!?

    Why is John H right but I was wrong when saying the same for days?

    The GFS 6z follows on from the 0z and the ECM 0z with a primarily Atlantic driven pattern with the occasional ridge thrown in to settle things down for a day or two.

    No sign of decent Summer in reliable.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Awesome post as always Tamara, just to add, the Gfs 6z op didn’t end so well, to put it mildly but that doesn’t preclude a major improvement mid month..watch this space!?

    9EBEF6BB-59F7-40E2-BBD0-BBE4D85D939D.thumb.png.163d9a5abf5f3f076a0363d41707c1c3.png17FD93CC-9737-4D18-B77A-EF987C2DEEBC.thumb.png.3cdd33ca6fa2b1a1df9fb5cb049f6a9b.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Thanks as ever @Tamara. Very insightful!

    Regarding this June being above average, I think part of this is down to our warming climate. It’s so much easier for a month to be above average in the last 20-30 years than in the past due to a warmer base state. It just seems like you need something truly exceptional to get below now!

    Also - what do you make of this CFS forecast for mid July (image from Simon Lee). It’s really going all in on a big UK high around mid month building from week 2, but i’m not really seeing anything to suggest this at the moment. Am I missing something? Compare it to the NOAA anomalies and it’s nothing alike:

    image.thumb.jpeg.e45715ceaca3212343e63941deb6e950.jpeg
    F3089547-6B78-48ED-BEEC-445CABD334CB.thumb.gif.aae5fc7610eeb4bd4b030babb073c422.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    17 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Thanks as ever @Tamara. Very insightful!

    Regarding this June being above average, I think part of this is down to our warming climate. It’s so much easier for a month to be above average in the last 20-30 years than in the past due to a warmer base state. It just seems like you need something truly exceptional to get below now!

    Also - what do you make of this CFS forecast for mid July (image from Simon Lee). It’s really going all in on a big UK high around mid month building from week 2, but i’m not really seeing anything to suggest this at the moment. Am I missing something? Compare it to the NOAA anomalies and it’s nothing alike:

    image.thumb.jpeg.e45715ceaca3212343e63941deb6e950.jpeg
    F3089547-6B78-48ED-BEEC-445CABD334CB.thumb.gif.aae5fc7610eeb4bd4b030babb073c422.gif

    Stating the obvious though, Simon lee goes 4 weeks ahead, the NOAA only 2.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    11 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    Stating the obvious though, Simon lee goes 4 weeks ahead, the NOAA only 2.

    It does, but that noaa chart covers week 2-3 on that CFS plot and looks nothing alike!

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    EC clusters this morning - Look away now if you want a mid-July heatwave!!

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020070200_360.

    Really couldn't get a lot less summery that this - 75% of runs have height rises to the west, and a UK or North Sea trough. Rain, and no way to get warmth into the mix.

    Let's hope the clusters are as wrong about this as they were for the start of July at D15!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    44 minutes ago, MATT‚ėÄÔłŹ said:

    I'm confused here.. Most of the posts I'm reading are condemning of any fine conditions out to mid month! The ECM mean I'm viewing is pretty positive regarding pressure and the EC46 I've viewed is certainly not showing a trough stuck over us, not to say its wrong but I can't help but notice the Met update is again positive.. No offence to anyone on here who post there thoughts... But who as got it wrong here... The enthusiast or the Pros from the so called worlds best Organisation! Somebody is badly wrong! 

    EDM1-120 (1).gif

    EDM1-144.gif

    EDM1-168 (1).gif

    EDM1-216 (1).gif

    EDM1-240 (1).gif

    graphe1_00_283_83___.png

    This is not a trough issue, its more of a flat jet issue, most of the models bring in short periods of upper air warmth, Saturday being the prime example where 850's reach 12C, under slack conditions you could probably take a stab at 30C however its mobile with the air having a cool maritime source, they'll be fair amounts of cloud anywhere away from the far south east gets to 20C they'll be doing well. Also all those mean charts indicate pressure is high to south west so there is also a very good chance of low pressure skinning over the tops and affecting the UK regularly. Really need to the thermal gradient over the eastern seaboard to be toned down, this is powering up the jet and blasting it towards us....Same process that drive strong jet streaks in Autumn/Winter.....

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    2 hours ago, MATT‚ėÄÔłŹ said:

    I'm confused here.. Most of the posts I'm reading are condemning of any fine conditions out to mid month! The ECM mean I'm viewing is pretty positive regarding pressure and the EC46 I've viewed is certainly not showing a trough stuck over us, not to say its wrong but I can't help but notice the Met update is again positive.. No offence to anyone on here who post there thoughts... But who as got it wrong here... The enthusiast or the Pros from the so called worlds best Organisation! Somebody is badly wrong! 

    EDM1-120 (1).gif

    EDM1-144.gif

    EDM1-168 (1).gif

    EDM1-216 (1).gif

    EDM1-240 (1).gif

    graphe1_00_283_83___.png

    It's between D11 and D15 that this morning's clusters go downhill - they weren't particularly bad up to that point.

    It was a new development on the clusters though so hopefully it will be a one-off ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    CFSv2 500hpa anomalies for weeks 1 and 2:

    wk1.wk2_20200701_z500.thumb.png.e86342001f2b3ef68bb65009446caf30.png

    ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Ukmo not to bad especially further south . 

    1642AE8A-A2FD-4265-807D-8049DE9B7D0B.gif

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