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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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ECM T192:

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This looks good.  But there is a feeling which I agree with is that these charts seem to correct west when coming into the reliable.  I think the current output is better than early July, but would like to see some consistency get into the reliable.

 

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...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Max temps on that chart are 20-21c in the south. 12-14c maxes in the north, which is desperately bad for the hottest point of the year. 

It's not great is it, but then days 8 and 9 start to look warmer..... but it's days 8 and 9 again 😬

image.thumb.png.fbb22be52a3e2c8d819814ada6140cff.pngimage.thumb.png.39830badaf7b83825d3553e0e80e6095.png   

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Just now, Ice Day said:

It's not great is it, but then days 8 and 9 start to look warmer..... but it's days 8 and 9 again 😬

image.thumb.png.fbb22be52a3e2c8d819814ada6140cff.pngimage.thumb.png.39830badaf7b83825d3553e0e80e6095.png   

Yes - I think this summer has won the award for the most ‘promising day 8-10 charts that haven’t happened’. 

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Well, eventually our luck will change, and those day 8-10 charts will verify.

I'm not writing off summer, but we were bound to get a poor one at some point. Definitely the worst (so far) since 2012 by some margin, although nowhere near as bad as that one.

Edited by Djdazzle
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9 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

It's not great is it, but then days 8 and 9 start to look warmer..... but it's days 8 and 9 again 😬

image.thumb.png.fbb22be52a3e2c8d819814ada6140cff.pngimage.thumb.png.39830badaf7b83825d3553e0e80e6095.png   

Think the uppers are warmer than that at day 4/5 ..

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18 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Well, eventually our luck will change, and those day 8-10 charts will verify.

I'm not writing off summer, but we were bound to get a poor one at some point. Definitely the worst (so far) since 2012 by some margin, although nowhere near as bad as that one.

Yes and still lots of summer to go! Not sure why we seem to be taking an underwhelming Day 7 ECM as gospel yet poo-pooing a nice Day 8 and Day 9 chart. Sooner or later the Azores High will take control. 

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Decent enough ECM this evening. Looks quite settled if not overly hot. Given how lovely last Sunday felt at 21.6C here in Sheffield that isn't the be all and end all with the strong sun 🙂

Edited by Mapantz
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Sound like a broken record, said on many an occasion, always best to keep an open mind beyond the reliable which on average is 144 hrs max, but more often than not 120 hrs. Model runs beyond the 7 day mark have a much higher chance of flip flopping around.

With this in mind, no surprise to see continued shifts in the 7-9 day timeframe. Over the weekend the models were showing the azores high ridging in sufficiently to give what appeared to be a dry warm sunny weekend for most of the UK, alas today's models have backed away from this and instead keep the azores high to our west allowing influence of low pressure to the NW and associated fronts to exert themselves, more so further north you go.

Some posters have said we should now be expecting to see the effects of a renewed rising AAM, combined with La Nina not quite getting it's act together just yet, and this would enable the azores high to ridge more sufficiently into the UK to bring some more settled conditions.

We may well see the models revert back to what was being shown yesterday for the end of the week.

In the reliable the outlook remains generally cloudy and cool affair. Very underwhelming for mid July, not a washout or disaster by any means, but lacklustre all the same. We are now entering the warmest core of the summer, but there is nothing particularly warm on the horizon for the foreseeable, slightly above average SE parts at best, below or just average elsewhere.

 

Edited by damianslaw
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Numerous posts removed. 

Take your bickering to private messages and don't post it in here, please?!

Also, if you're just going to post about how bad the output looks, think twice and use THIS thread.

Thanks.

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Decent ECM 12z ensemble mean tonight, it looks like at least the south is in line for some summery weather at times thanks to the Azores ridge / high..however, even the south isn’t immune from something more changeable and cooler from time to time but on balance, I would be quite happy if I lived in the south in terms of a predominantly good outlook if fine and warm is your preference!🙂

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3 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Decent ECM 12z ensemble mean tonight, it looks like at least the south is in line for some summery weather at times thanks to the Azores ridge / high..however, even the south isn’t immune from something more changeable and cooler from time to time but on balance, I would be quite happy if I lived in the south in terms of a predominantly good outlook if fine and warm is your preference!🙂

9BDBE40F-B9C4-4BAB-B653-933076C93CD4.thumb.gif.825249f78a24378f7cc59a6e9b3ea6fe.gifDCB22960-9159-4B0B-B14E-7B3CD03C8951.thumb.gif.ff4d064af8236d6df13d37dc023a1793.gif9FF18FC1-ED9E-4DF0-96F2-B3F7F4797E01.thumb.gif.f004f3f5867b5fce2b7df0f3df2094bb.gif0F0968F4-C652-43F4-94AA-D1D4FD007368.thumb.gif.29b6bc41d10e56221207414801f5be12.gifCCF52F2A-5B30-4621-8E2A-64FA6B61C64C.thumb.gif.62257d71bcc30acd10512d79b670a212.gif3B83BAE2-5C00-4DC6-A5C4-AACDE6C97E6B.thumb.gif.5bb12fb38c85c4e9587683da7f085617.gifF29F26A1-31DF-44A4-B82A-E862F0ACA6DC.thumb.gif.8f8398c3407a891db83fc9ddd564ca0b.gif

Yes Karl, that doesn’t look too bad, and obviously the signal reduced on the mean as we go later in time towards T240.  But we have seen good mean charts for a while now, and the reality always seems to be poorer, not a rain fest but in terms of cloud cover.  Sunshine at a premium now this July.  

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Anyone been monitoring the CFS runs I've been checking them frequently and theres a consistent signal for many colder than normal months

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6 hours ago, Daniel* said:

What it looks like in London over next 15 days based on EPS backed off from heat this weekend all looking very average going forward, which isn’t bad. I’ll be shocked if this months adds to tally at least going by 1981-2010 average that seems increasingly unlikely.

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Warmth toned down further late this week on 12z turning into a bit above average for SE, spread however greater next week on Wednesday 10°C difference between warmest and coolest member. Maybe recovering a bit through next week to normal at least.

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I've included Manchester as well for our more northern members...

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Evening everyone🙂

i would just like to put my mammoth tooth into all this controversy as this thread looks like a slanging match at times(when doesn't it!)  lol

come on guys i know that we are all looking for some summer loving weather and we have had that in spring/early summer while we was in lock-down,didn't everyone enjoy it,i know for a fact that i did and i wouldn't of enjoyed it if i was working

we cannot change the weather and neither can the models and the summer charts are always in fl as well as the charts in winter show winter Narnia

things can flip on a coin in regards of NWP'S as i have stated before whether it be winter or in summer,if there is no strong signal in the models don't trust it

a look at the CPC 500mb height anomaly's for 6-10/8-14 day outlook suggest's that there is no signal for a hp cell in our local with upper flow mainly westerly/northwesterly with ebb and flow of the Azores ridging in at times in the south

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a look at the day ten means from the ecm/gefs also show a predominantly W/NW flow

EDH1-240.thumb.gif.ec2ccf4650a91a23177257bf7fed7688.gifgensnh-21-1-252.thumb.png.abb329128ccb7e94fabf08e4ebf5f3a4.png

EDH101-240.thumb.gif.8feb02f655a45dabe054f0520f158701.gifgensnh-21-5-240.thumb.png.f8fae2f0dc4da6dc27cb252e290b3d95.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_eu_11.thumb.png.618701596b9e3555c26615f0e611331c.pngecmwf-ens_T850a_eu_11.thumb.png.da93dca9c451ede99636d57974bb142e.png

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i have been a bit pessimistic since my last post hence why i have not posted that much in here recently,i just hope that the fortunes change soon

i too want some summery charts to appear,but in the meantime we just have to sit it out and hopefully things change quickly.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

As per usual, the runs are nowhere as bad as some of the predictions allegedly based on them... But the most bizarre of the lot, is expecting charts, for Day 14, to verify; by that time, NWP forecasts are almost always nonsense. Think of all those much-hyped wintertime Snowmageddon scenarios that fail to materialise?

We live in neither Siberia nor Abu Dhabi!:oldlaugh:

Indeed, the distinctly average theme continues, but as you say, there's nae wrong with that. Despite a lot of expostulating to convince one way or the other, that's the way of things currently...

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Good morning, all... and, what a fabulous morning it isn't! GFS 00Z's not bad: some rain, some sun, some cloud... All the very best of British:🇬🇧

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h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And now for my brand spanking new virtual reality face-mask!:oldlaugh:

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ECM this morning with your typical UK summer weather:

Warm in the south Friday through Saturday as a ridge and some warmer air moves through:
image.thumb.png.f61f04fd127379d1b77c3ec481285d6d.pngimage.thumb.png.6c60b85fa84016d927f2a86e348bb192.png

Fresher Sunday to Tuesday as cooler air tucks in:
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Warmth returning as another ridge passes through Wed/Thu, though low pressure affecting the NW:

image.thumb.png.97d3a4c1342a6979998a103c167d9aab.pngimage.thumb.png.1569f103a73b598cb11ff86e92f90eb8.png

Edited by mb018538
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