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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    While that UKMO chart @144 doesn't look the best, if the model went further then it would probably show the AH ridging in and bringing something warmer and settled.

    ukmo144.png

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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Marco still confident - won’t be seeing 29c on the ukmo output tonight that’s for sure!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    GEM is actually alright on Friday - mid 20s in the south.

    gemeuw-9-96.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    9 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    GEM is actually alright on Friday - mid 20s in the south.

    gemeuw-9-96.png

    GFS is similar, but its really just one slightly warm day now and the models at 6-8days have yet again significantly under played the depth and activity of lows developing up near iceland....

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    24 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Atlantic is underestimated on the models in FI, as it gets closer the settled weather tends to become more Atlantic dominated as it gets closer in July and Aug, key EC coming up, hope it dosen't trend towards UKMO and GFS

    Can you offer a little more insight rather than keep whining about how the Atlantic dominates through July and August.. And again why is it a key ECM.. it matters not a jot, because all the output come this time tomorrow could be completely different again. EC46 tonight... Will it be key! I think not... It will merely serve to show us what the current trends may be looking like from this evening, and it may Completely change come Thursdays run. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodland Garden, South Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and Humid weather, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Woodland Garden, South Yorks
    4 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

    Can you offer a little more insight rather than keep whining about how the Atlantic dominates through July and August.. And again why is it a key ECM.. it matters not a jot, because all the output come this time tomorrow could be completely different again. EC46 tonight... Will it be key! I think not... It will merely serve to show us what the current trends may be looking like from this evening, and it may Completely change come Thursdays run. 

    To be fair you've been posting the same types of charts showing an Azores high nudging the south coast of England and these annoying GIFS with "I'll drink to that" since the 1st July and every single time it's eroded into cold, wet mulch for most of the country. I think it's clear some of these models struggle with anticipating the extent that the jetstream and low pressure systems manage to work in from the west if that keeps on happening.

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    Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
    7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    GFS is similar, but its really just one slightly warm day now and the models at 6-8days have yet again significantly under played the depth and activity of lows developing up near iceland....

    Again, it looks a benign and generally pleasant outlook for the SE beyond two ropey midweek days tomorrow and Wednesday. Not a raging heatwave but many of us don’t want that - I absolutely hate hot nights.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    2 minutes ago, Thundershine said:

    To be fair you've been posting the same types of charts showing an Azores high nudging the south coast of England and these annoying GIFS with "I'll drink to that" since the 1st July and every single time it's eroded into cold, wet mulch for most of the country. I think it's clear some of these models struggle with anticipating the extent that the jetstream and low pressure systems manage to work in from the west if that keeps on happening.

    Annoying.. The forecast is no where near as bad as some are painting.. I post the mean charts and they show what they show.. I do not make over the top comments on each and every operational run.. And I always try to install a little light hearted humour into events. I won't bother in future.. 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Some difficulties sorting out the exact orientation of the high this weekend. Trough movement important - faster is generally a cooler outcome for the UK. Not impressed by UKMO's big jump in that regard after holding so steady beforehand. 

    Generally, it's a confusing time to be a numerical weather prediction model. The tropics are behaving less Nina-like than for some time, increasing the chances of seeing high pressure in warm to hot positions for the UK, but the non-tropics feature generally negative mountain torques, suggesting no coherent overall response to the tropical changes. Our current high, being so soon after the tropics shifted, may be more connected to other factors such as the development of (ex-)tropical storm Fay. 

    I have a feeling next Monday should prove to be the start of a more concerted effort to shift the subtropical high pressure cell over or just E/SE of us - but having seen the spanner-throwing for this weekend when I was to be honest expecting the high to face less pressure from that trough to the north, I'm wary of assuming much past a few days range at the moment.

    Perhaps, temperature wise, July 2020 will be a 'late bloomer'. At least, while it may be a bit on the cool side at times, there looks to be some decent spells of weather while we wait to find out! Once we get past tomorrow & Wednesday morning, that is.

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodland Garden, South Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and Humid weather, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Woodland Garden, South Yorks
    3 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

    Annoying.. The forecast is no where near as bad as some are painting.. I post the mean charts and they show what they show.. I do not make over the top comments on each and every operational run.. And I always try to install a little light hearted humour into events. I won't bother in future.. 

    Well I don't mean it as a personal attack rather more it becomes annoying when the anticipated conditions fail to materialise. There needs to be some acknowledgement that the models really are struggling in this period so far with this set up.

    Edited by Thundershine
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    Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
    2 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

    Annoying.. The forecast is no where near as bad as some are painting.. I post the mean charts and they show what they show.. I do not make over the top comments on each and every operational run.. And I always try to install a little light hearted humour into events. I won't bother in future.. 

    Please carry on as you are. I enjoy your posts and most of the hyperbole and hysteria on here is born of the simple fact that much of the weather in an average summer is a NW/SE split. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodland Garden, South Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and Humid weather, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Woodland Garden, South Yorks
    24 minutes ago, Downpour said:

    Please carry on as you are. I enjoy your posts and most of the hyperbole and hysteria on here is born of the simple fact that much of the weather in an average summer is a NW/SE split. 

    No hsyteria from me. I'm merely pointing out that there is an issue with certain models not getting a handle on this Azores high situation very well. I've seen this all month where we had decent weather anticipated on every forecast service I've seen deteriorate into some abysmally poor conditions. Maybe not in London, but look at the rest of the country - our coldest start to July in more than 30 years, and entire month's rain already. It's no ordinary NW/SE split. So nobody's attacking Matt here, simply rebutting his comments earlier to I Remember Atlantic. Anyway everyone carry on...

    Edited by Thundershine
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Well GFS has been like a dog with a bone in its outliers showing a quick turning down of any warmth through the weekend and compared to yesterday when the mean for uppers was above average for 10days down here, now its just 3. Just look at the way the whole ensemble suite entrenches a pretty notable upper trough and cold pool especially over the north for a lengthy period. 

    Bournemouth and Manchester Ensembles for GFS 12z uppers. 

     

    gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n 1307.jpeg

    gfs-manchester-gb-535n-2 1307.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Huge ECM coming up. What it does post weekend is really key!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    ECM is decent for the south on Friday too -

    ECM1-96.thumb.gif.0645be322cf33edddf973fbee8fd387e.gif

    @96

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Hopefully ukmo is on the loopy juice tonight. ECM looks ok Friday and Saturday, but cool Sunday.

    This chart sums up so many UK summers....the cold pool of air neatly encasing the UK while everywhere else sits in the warmer air.

    A5357230-CCF9-461D-AB79-D39487531615.thumb.png.1c3781d4f8debcc944d561019d428d5a.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    The 'Big 3' at 144 - GFS / UKMO / ECM

    image.thumb.png.1572d19057d482264b6b17b92be27de5.pngimage.thumb.png.0df846d50f417a9095639762086442c3.pngimage.thumb.png.33a4b59246d4c66cdd6b4562ee1ca356.png  

    So the UKMO and ECM very much in the same ballpark, with the GFS making more of the low to the north.  Can the ECM nose the Azores further north than this mornings run at 168?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Looks like the AH is trying to ridge in, like I said about the UKMO earlier

    @168

    1178398389_ECM1-168(1).thumb.gif.d6034bbb3c6f94c0f844df177b93a8cc.gif

    If this does end up happening then I won't be too bothered about the unsettled blip...

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Hopefully ukmo is on the loopy juice tonight. ECM looks ok Friday and Saturday, but cool Sunday.

    This chart sums up so many UK summers....the cold pool of air neatly encasing the UK while everywhere else sits in the warmer air.

    A5357230-CCF9-461D-AB79-D39487531615.thumb.png.1c3781d4f8debcc944d561019d428d5a.png

    You couldn't make it up, its actually the coldest pool of air at  50-55 north in the entire northern hemisphere. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    Looks like the AH is trying to ridge in, like I said about the UKMO earlier

    @168

    1178398389_ECM1-168(1).thumb.gif.d6034bbb3c6f94c0f844df177b93a8cc.gif

    If this does end up happening then I won't be too bothered about the unsettled blip...

    Problem is Zak this summer decent looking weeks 5 days out turn into midweek periods like last week and and unsettled blips last 2weekts this summer. Again that sort of chart will not be good at the surface, fronts coming over the top and bundles of cloud.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    You couldn't make it up, its actually the coldest pool of air at  50-55 north in the entire northern hemisphere. 

    Just shows how bad our luck it - the chance of that happening must be miniscule.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Looks very much like this mornings run so far, the dreaded north / south split, the uppers aren't overly impressive but the winds should be relatively slack.  Unlikely to see any days 8-10 eye candy on this run (I'm trying the old reverse psychology!)

    image.thumb.png.5a8feaf633fe9e6a8691b2bda6953d89.pngimage.thumb.png.2152860f9dc593552b7449a53caf1a9c.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    1 minute ago, Alderc said:

    Problem is Zak this summer decent looking weeks 5 days out turn into midweek periods like last week and and unsettled blips last 2weekts this summer. Again that sort of chart will not be good at the surface, fronts coming over the top and bundles of cloud.

    I have to agree - that is quite a poor chart if you want sunshine and warmth. Benign, quite cool and very boring!

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Navgem at 144 and at 180 hours . Must admit things have gone slightly backwards but for the south and especially the  SE still more than useful .  At least we don’t have front after front crossing the Uk or a low right over us for days on end , certainly useful weather on offer for many .

    5AECC44F-2820-41CA-A5FE-08E5A9C73882.png

    C0D12E24-259B-49CD-9716-0209894813A8.png

    Edited by Mark wheeler
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

    Looks very much like this mornings run so far, the dreaded north / south split, the uppers aren't overly impressive but the winds should be relatively slack.  Unlikely to see any days 8-10 eye candy on this run (I'm trying the old reverse psychology!)

    image.thumb.png.5a8feaf633fe9e6a8691b2bda6953d89.pngimage.thumb.png.2152860f9dc593552b7449a53caf1a9c.png

    Max temps on that chart are 20-21c in the south. 12-14c maxes in the north, which is desperately bad for the hottest point of the year. 

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