Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion - into July 2020


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Hopefully this will be an outlier. The synoptics look great, yet this run seems determined to find a way for us not to benefit fully. However, it is well into FI by that point, so not really worth fretting.

    Edited by Djdazzle
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 2.7k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Not particularly confidence inspiring, three ECM runs which have handled things upstream differently on each run, even at quite short timescales.

    I would be shocked if the warmth was sheered away as easily as is on this run though.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    The unsettled blip that the ECM is showing on day 8 doesn't look to be lasting long and shows HP ridging in again.

    Well into FI as stated above so there isn't the need to worry about that yet.

    Edited by Zak M
    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    What was @Daniel* saying? ECM T240:

    762CEE50-96C3-4FFD-845F-F288A9B6054C.thumb.gif.2cbc1ccc735999967b7c7c55d31c5fba.gif

    Of course FI is T144 or less, but there is an ‘all roads lead to rome’ kind of inevitability of where we might up in the late half of July, I think.  

    JMA, just to illustrate that it is FI, has gone for the heat infusion option at T192:

    ADB18DE2-58FF-4471-B2AB-C03F61C561EF.thumb.gif.ddd48b1c653bc057a56d1514982ad628.gif9EF34AD6-8DA2-4C60-A4F7-89B42D6B87DE.thumb.gif.7573fde05ca062fade340adbfaf33a54.gif

    Lots of uncertainty remains in play...we will see...

    That’s day 10 again more fool you. Never said weather was that bad but you cannot dispute later next week which is semi reliable timeframe is trending away from heat. Warm and settled weather is struggling to anchor down this summer. It seems GFS may have lost its way again.

    D8F4FB13-892A-40DB-9E82-94C9C48B0D28.thumb.png.ed2caf45dd75a138ff50920a870b0074.png

     

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Wouldn’t be banking on anything with ex-Fay being injected into the jet stream. Could end up with anything yet.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    All the good Summer stuff remaining in FI

    We just can't seem to shake that Atlantic trough off.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Finely balanced. Still a fair chance that for the south at least, next weekend could be hot.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    All the good Summer stuff remaining in FI

    We just can't seem to shake that Atlantic trough off.

    We do have a 3 day warm spell widespread with ECM well it’s not far from average. Very dry run a positive.

    5D5B5626-8297-410D-AE27-4AEFC8EC3539.thumb.png.8a4c7e971063bfe836d4945206475595.png

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
    15 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    All the good Summer stuff remaining in FI

    We just can't seem to shake that Atlantic trough off.

    Depends where you are though. All models look decent in the SE. Usual NW/SE disclaimer applies. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    2 minutes ago, Downpour said:

    Depends where you are though. All models look decent in the SE. Usual NW/SE disclaimer applies. 

    I live in the NW. 

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    21 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    So we now have these ECM mean charts for D5 and D6. Pretty close to the op runs. Surely it can't go wrong from here? 

    EDM1-120.GIF

     

    EDM1-144.GIF

     

    Doesn’t look like it is going to go wrong from here T192, T240:

    5C2E74F7-393D-4C94-A8FE-F5D2F7D08DD2.thumb.gif.139a0f65746c3a61fe8a667985c8113a.gif08E37580-CA18-4E4E-8544-F0CCC3F414B7.thumb.gif.322b9bb0f07c2ffe28c86e48a7148df1.gif

    Looks good for mean chart at that range...maybe even the much vaunted anomaly charts (I’m not a fan) will give us their blessing tomorrow.  And the clusters of course, with perhaps even more relevance.  We can hope.   Been a very grey and dull couple of weeks here, not what you want in high summer...

    And while I’m on, the dull weather of the past two weeks have affected SSTs in the Atlantic, not so conducive to summer now, so other factors will need to fuel the longevity of the settled spell this week, if that is to happen,  but maybe a tripole emerging to benefit winter?  Here, latest chart:

    6C747A9C-9F70-422F-AB98-CAB5283E82AE.thumb.png.854a44935b7b4c4ba9c88deb0090b5ff.png

     

    Edited by Mike Poole
    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    ECM clusters @144 are still looking good!

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020071112_144.thumb.png.44685f2cd8caf9bf71fe7f780c4302d9.png

    Let's hope the worst does not happen...

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Decent runs again this morning.

    AA139FB6-10E9-42E1-A59B-79BFA4BA44D5.thumb.png.6e33e0a01f0f1b305136f499dec93e78.png

    ECM starts to rebuild the Azores high again at day 9, prolonging then settled weather. Looking good.

    64B1A857-CEAC-4A1F-B6B7-E71E15057458.thumb.jpeg.371c5b443384c1b5199d2a54fb1621f0.jpeg

    Its also been a good while since we’ve seen the accumulated ppn charts look dry for the majority. The far west of Scotland aside, 0-10mm over the next 10 days for many, which is much needed!

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Good morning, folks!:hi:

    Here's the GFS 00Z at T+141 hours: nae much point in going further ahead (Atlantic tropical storms an' all)... It's nae bad!🤔

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    And, for what they're worth, given an active hurricane season, the ens:

    t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

    t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

    So, thank the Lord that the chances of 35C seem to have gone, for now. Alleluia!😇

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Excellent EC 00 z this morning!!!

    Azores high doing it's thing ...

    Let's see where det sits in the suite but it's all looking quite promising...

    ☀️☀️

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Following on from above the mean is really good...

    😀😀☀️☀️

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Sunday 12 th July

    An update as the models have altered some items shall we say on the chart for 6-10 days.

    Ec-gfs now show differences quite markedly from the charts issues only yesterday; ec has shifted any +ve height rises well into the atlantic beneath a less marked trough and its forward part is now shown over or indeed e of the uk. Gfshas ‘lost’ any indication of height rises s of the uk, it has any very small such rises off the eastern seaboard into s Greenland, the trough is not far from its suggested position yesterday.

    Meanwhile noaa has put a small area of +ve heights over the s of the uk and n france, little signal for this yesterday, and has changed the depth and position/orirntation of the trough.

    All told sufficient differences in 24 hours to say the upper air pattern seems more fluid than usual and best not taken too much for granted until we get consistency over 2-3 days and both run to run and with one another. Unusual for this lack of confidence in them at this time of year.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

     

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Not bad runs this morning.  That said, I'm not overly keen on the GFS which shows a flatter pattern around days 5 and 6 and as such the Azores never really gets in.

    Once again, the ECM reserves the best charts for days 9-10, eventually these will become reality!!!!

    image.thumb.png.5dcf0bd37c296e02807a68c4ed4c3a74.png    image.thumb.png.afce3936e6c83ba6497c8309e98b81c2.png

    Overall, it's still looking positive with a pretty decent week for many coming up.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Generally positive output over the past few days though cautious beyond 4-5days given TS Fay and how quickly Eduardo flattened the pattern this week just gone giving a very poor 2-3day spell in places, just don't seem to be to those positive heights over us for more a day or two before they slip back south west. Still the suns out today and I'm enjoying it already, hopefully some more of this later in the week. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    9 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    Sunday 12 th July

    An update as the models have altered some items shall we say on the chart for 6-10 days.

    Ec-gfs now show differences quite markedly from the charts issues only yesterday; ec has shifted any +ve height rises well into the atlantic beneath a less marked trough and its forward part is now shown over or indeed e of the uk. Gfshas ‘lost’ any indication of height rises s of the uk, it has any very small such rises off the eastern seaboard into s Greenland, the trough is not far from its suggested position yesterday.

    Meanwhile noaa has put a small area of +ve heights over the s of the uk and n france, little signal for this yesterday, and has changed the depth and position/orirntation of the trough.

    All told sufficient differences in 24 hours to say the upper air pattern seems more fluid than usual and best not taken too much for granted until we get consistency over 2-3 days and both run to run and with one another. Unusual for this lack of confidence in them at this time of year.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

     

    Many thanks for the update @johnholmes; it's like the currently active hurricane-season is wreaking havoc with any attempts at forecasting, just now: It could be anything from 35 to 15C, from what I am seeing...

    And, whatever the critters are that have chewed my right forearm are, I blame the weather!:shok:

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    48CAB626-415E-4C66-B05D-31436951AD50.thumb.png.9ee8430704a7ed7b3b50be91c598670f.png

    ECM was above the average at day 9/10, but with the mean holding at 1020mb it shouldn’t be bad at all.

    • Like 5
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Lovely Navgem this morning 👌

    1CD0514E-7AA3-4402-B02B-828C9B80B4FC.png

    DC041F51-7BE1-450C-9518-AA3006E18B49.png

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

    Excellent EC 00 z this morning!!!

    Azores high doing it's thing ...

    Let's see where det sits in the suite but it's all looking quite promising...

    ☀️☀️

    Morning NW .What's this "det" you include in a lot of your posts🤔I'd agree also in regard to the Azores high influence but whether it has any longevity remains to be seen with all usual caveats .tia

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...