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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Just to sum up last night's EC weeklies, no real sign of that major interruption that was showing up on the GFS and ECM op next week. Largely settled next week, the best in the South. Moving towards the final 3rd of the month still highlights the best conditions towards the South and less so further North... Worth noting the flow appears to be Mianly of a Wstly source with temperatures mainly hovering around average. Still the same ebb and flow of this Azores ridge and no current signs of a strong build in a favourable area. Currently August is looking a tad more unsettled in the first part of the month as the ridge pulls back W/SW.. The precipitation totals are becoming quite high in W/NW Locations at this point, and again a similar flow of W/NW at times meaning temperatures are never becoming very high.. Warm at times further SE, more like avarage at best further North.. Its been sticking with this signal for the last couple of weeks.. So let's just see how it goes.. Its not bad at times but I'm not seeing lenghty heatwave conditions also. 

Enjoy your days.. 

Edited by MATT☀️
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...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

Self evidently this is yet more nonsense excessive hyperbole. Ultimately, and it seems ridiculous to have to keep mentioning it on the basis of the weather to come in the days ahead for many -  t

It gets a bit of a "boys own" scrum on here. Computer models being assessed like they are competing engines being road tested for performance.  Temperatures being frantically compared from one compute

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4 hours ago, Downpour said:

ECM and GFS have moved towards UKMO and GEM rather than vice versa.

Who knew? 

Ha! Always this. 

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You know what, there is some crud on the models longer term for sure but there is also some summery potential!.. and my glass is always half full rather than half empty!!!!!!!!! so who knows..perhaps July will deliver some weather to remember..for the right reasons!!!!..ps..God Bless Dame Vera Lynn..R.I.P.!!🙂

DB292983-92BD-4363-A6E5-B7DE1339F2D0.thumb.gif.06b157616b33c055278eb74057e8654d.gifE423AC6B-641A-4482-B1DF-47CA702E286F.thumb.gif.a94ed63d26c3c7f6ad002e8678010308.gif649E3089-F6AC-4402-BEE1-68C3DAF0C519.thumb.gif.65f967c2c47255fefc9cd0b909047cf1.gif6E590476-E06E-451E-8DE3-3F1695D00239.thumb.png.2f123c7aae64afd9ec467ee1b1c2518f.png23D13A22-369B-4ACC-92D1-5012D94CCDB7.thumb.png.69ea71c3d44a0bd10b0d350b6f044305.pngF6BFBA8A-1755-403F-B87A-A93F1346D377.thumb.png.f7997c9388ecb708b7fd985afa837c84.png

Edited by JON SNOW
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3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

It’s just the 576dam line at 500mb 👍🏻
 

I am no expert, but isn't 576 very high and hence indicating exceptional high pressure? I had though that was a rare event. And why 576? I am aware of the 528 for cold air in winter and possible snow, what is the significance of 576 I wonder?

Edited by Downburst
576 and not 578
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9 minutes ago, Downburst said:

I am no expert, but isn't 576 very high and hence indicating exceptional high pressure? I had though that was a rare event. And why 576? I am aware of the 528 for cold air in winter and possible snow, what is the significance of 576 I wonder?

FWIW 564 dam (+15 T850 hPA) is the holy grail in a British Summer..as for 576 dam?..never heard of it and I’ve been here since 2005!..anyway, looking at the models so far today there is some summery potential for sure, there is some absolute crud too but that is to be expected.😉

Edited by JON SNOW
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1 minute ago, JON SNOW said:

FWIW 564 dam (+15 T850 hPA) is the holy grail in a British Summer..as for 576 dam..never heard of it and I’ve been here since 2005!..anyway, looking at the models so far today there is some summery potential for sure, there is some absolute crud too but that is to be expected.

Yep, thanks JS. Perhaps @John Holmes can clear this up. Thanks for mentioning the 564, will keep that in mind.

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Think you guys are getting mixed up!

That chart is 500mb heights, which aren’t the same as the thickness/dam lines, which is the height you have to go up before pressure falls to 500hpa. 

Higher 500mb heights will indicate higher pressure though, but not necessarily heat. You can get High 500mb heights midwinter, but obviously without the 564 line and heat being involved.

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9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Think you guys are getting mixed up!

 

Just to be clear, I’m not mixed up..I’ve been here since 2005..thanks!😉

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7 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Ah yes - the same solar minimum must have been responsible for the amazing April and May we just had! 😁

Weather and climate are a funny thing. There seems to be a bias towards warm springs and unsettled summers with deep solar mins. Pretty sure someone did the historic analogues a year or two ago.

Edited by CreweCold
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2D6E69F8-6633-4768-BD5F-2C47D9F6CB45.thumb.png.64b74caeead13acecb5a24c59c361055.png

GFS also pleasantly warm by Thursday with 22-25c across a decent area. East faring best with a westerly flow in this instance.

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Increasing agreement on a deepening area of low pressure, which will become slow-moving close to Iceland. This should offer at least a reasonable pattern towards the U.K. with the Azores high extending towards us from time to time, potentially becoming displaced over Central Europe and allowing a very warm continental feed to move up from the south.

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All the models so far out show an improvement on yesterday’s 12z and even the UMKO has improved on yesterday run . I’m glad for once that the UKMO has triumphed to a certain degree ( I know it hasn’t happened yet ) . It’s normally the heart breaker in winter but perhaps our saviour on this occasion .

GFS, Icon and UKMO 

28DDD922-D577-468D-9485-A6DC77E21D3B.png

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C7A3D351-DD8B-49A4-A21D-659810D7A32B.gif

97583B88-2567-43E3-BE35-854127F9BDE1.gif

Edited by Mark wheeler
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1 minute ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

UW144-7.GIF?10-18UKMO 12z @ 144 hrs UPPERS

 

UW144-21.GIFUKMO 12z @ 144 hrs

It could be quite pleasant by Thur according to the UKMO 12 z

 

 

Mid twenties. Not a heatwave, but a million times better than the utter crap we’ve been subjected to in the last fortnight! ☀️ 🔥 😎 

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If the UKMO gets this right then it deserves all the credit. On its own yesterday backing a solution other than the relentless pattern that had been reinforcing itself for weeks and weeks.

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GFS is an absolute beauty for the south!

gfseuw-0-216.thumb.png.040bd2ace5c3d172b57413eeae468cfc.png   gfseuw-1-246.thumb.png.22b84f6a215a68326ed63beb863e35f6.png

@216 and @246

Edited by Zak M
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10 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

If the UKMO gets this right then it deserves all the credit. On its own yesterday backing a solution other than the relentless pattern that had been reinforcing itself for weeks and weeks.

It really is a fabulous model 🇬🇧

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This is the type of weather-pattern I appreciated most, when staying just to the east of Drum Alba: a SW wind and temps into the twenties... and the sky stays azure-blue up there, too!!:oldgood:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And I'm jealous of my two youngest offspring (both daughters) who still live and work in the Sneck!🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

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14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It really is a fabulous model 🇬🇧

Yes and particularly so in winter with any speculative cold spells - if the UKMO is not onboard, then forget it!

Edited by mulzy
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