Model output discussion - into July 2020

[Tim Bland]

ECM looks average to me. Humongous 18z GFS coming up!!!

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T192:

And I see no reason from there why the rest of the run won’t be great, for the south and midlands at least.

Edit, no reason apart from the fact that I don’t know what I’m on about!! T216 LOL!!

Forcing is from the NW - jet digging down on a NW-SE trajectory, azores ridge gets a kicking back west. Models have backed away from a settled scenario mid month to a broader atlantic westerly/north westerly pattern.

[Mike Poole]

32 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Forcing is from the NW - jet digging down on a NW-SE trajectory, azores ridge gets a kicking back west. Models have backed away from a settled scenario mid month to a broader atlantic westerly/north westerly pattern.

Some models have, yes.

Edited July 8, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Kentspur]

As long as my birthday (St Swithuns day) next week is fine then we should be seeing more charts like CFS for the following 40 days and 40 nights

[Singularity]

ECM turns very warm for southern parts mid-late next week, quite a difference to GFS which is left looking a bit lonely with it’s faster trough motion days 5-6.

Lets see which way the 5-8 day period goes before worrying about anything past that. The potential for high pressure to stay more in play than we’ve been seeing so far this summer (but probably not dominate) comes from AAM signals that will lead the models, not the other way around.

Edited July 8, 2020 by Singularity
Regional

[Mike Poole]

Pub run T90, compared to 12z T96:

This is already looking better, not from the hot side of the divide but from the low southern tip of Greenland, much less pronounced.  

Edited July 8, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Pub run rolling out. Its normally around this time of year when the 18z churns out the most outrageous looking August 2003 type of run youve ever seen and then blink and its gone on the 00z. 

[summer blizzard]

Euro and GFS May differ on spec but both do agree that the Atlantic probably wins by day 9. 18z has the Atlantic motor firmly switched back on by then.

[Frosty.]

After reading some of the negative comments yesterday I hardly dared look at this morning’s GEFS 0z but I’m glad I did, it’s certainly not terrible, indeed it’s not even bad..indeed, it’s actually preety decent at times and there is certainly some summery potential in there..is it perfect?..nope of course not, it indicates changeable at times, especially further north but on balance, there is more settled than unsettled and more warm than cool suggested....So...in a nutshell, high pressure will build in for the weekend and then expect some ebbing before hopefully another surge of high pressure or at least strong ridging returns..as the mean shows..at least for a while!!!

Edited July 9, 2020 by JON SNOW

[mb018538]

 

ECM is reasonable enough out to day 8, but turns absolutely rotten through day 9 and 10! That’s a classic pinned over the UK low which could give days of rain. Have to look at the ensembles to see where this fits....certainly doesn’t fit the MetO thoughts anyway.

[Mark wheeler]

Ukmo and ecm not to bad out to 144 hours especially the further south you go . 

 

And then on the ecm there is some weather for the rain enthusiasts to get excited about . 

Edited July 9, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Zak M]

Now that's a pretty nice 00z ECM...

@168

[Downpour]

29 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

ECM is reasonable enough out to day 8, but turns absolutely rotten through day 9 and 10! That’s a classic pinned over the UK low which could give days of rain. Have to look at the ensembles to see where this fits....certainly doesn’t fit the MetO thoughts anyway.

Yes, it’s probably unlikely to transpire like that, and is in FI anyway. A generally improving picture after today I would say. Better, as is usually the case, in the South East.

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Downpour said:

Yes, it’s probably unlikely to transpire like that, and is in FI anyway. A generally improving picture after today I would say. Better, as is usually the case, in the South East.

I'm not sure I'd use the term unlikely with the way this summer is going to be honest. However in the near term through Monday and Tuesday most of the models appear to make less of the front edging down across the UK which is clearly positive however they all bring several days of cloudy and possibly drizzly conditions at times. Later in the week still up for grabs however the ECM ops run does look a bit of an outlier, only one of the GFS ensembles goes for this solution with plenty have high pressure in charge although the control run, the ops run and the GEM ops all have a fairly deep low lurking to the northwest. Usual positioning would be everything a few hundred miles east or west makes the difference between mid to high teens or mid to high twenties...

[mb018538]

Phew

[Methuselah]

Good to see that, unlike the current weather conditions, the GFS 00Z isn't really that bad at all:

    

    

    

    

    

So, nae much point in trying to forecast anything, on a day-to-day basis...?

And the ens are broadly in'line with the op:

    

    

NH profiles:

    

    

And now watch as the Atlantic hurricane-season messes it all up!?

Edited July 9, 2020 by General Cluster

[carinthian]

Morning all, I want to highlight that encouraging ECM chart ( for the start of this week ) posted two weeks ago  .  Looks good for the British Isles. As we all know, July has so far turned out pretty miserable for many of you including much of Northern Europe. Just goes to show how hard it is to predict a sustained spell of nice weather over NW Europe. In fairness , the other main models were less enthusiastic at the time for this scenario compared to ECM. Now the run today from ECM is showing a more unsettled period for the start of the second period of July- so hopefully that could go wrong !  My daughter reports from Sweden a wet and windy July, especially in Southern Sweden . We here in the Eastern Alps have improved considerably compared to May and June but nothing more than average. So it appears the Atlantic jet continues to push across Europe at relatively low latitudes with France and Iberia best placed for  tropical ridging. Sure the weather will improve but for how long is the million dollar question? The weather will do what it will do and sometimes has the last laugh at all our predictions !

Enjoy your weekend in the sunshine !

C

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, Zak M said:

Now that's a pretty nice 00z ECM...

@168

For that day, yes.

As  a whole, an underwhelming set of 0z and for high Summer the 10 degree isotherm does not really venture North of the Midlands throughout.

Edited July 9, 2020 by mountain shadow

[mountain shadow]

8 minutes ago, carinthian said:

 

Enjoy your weekend in the sunshine !

C

Not a lot of sunshine expected in the Northern and Western parts of the UK unfortunately.

A few days break from the rain will be nice though.

[northwestsnow]

44 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Phew

That is a huge outlier.

I'm assuming and hoping the det has lost the plot..

[mb018538]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

That is a huge outlier.

I'm assuming and hoping the det has lost the plot..

I hope so @northwestsnow. For it to be 20dm below the mean would suggest so!

[mushymanrob]

16 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

The week two shows a huge high pressure anomaly over us.

Surely, even the CFS can't be that wrong?

Well either they are, or this is, because you cannot get two predictions so different.

 

[mountain shadow]

7 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Well either they are, or this is, because you cannot get two predictions so different.

 

CFS should be banned on here.

Unfortunately,  this chart is likely to be nearer the mark. 

I assume the AAM is not going to turn positive as expected.

[johnholmes]

26 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Well either they are, or this is, because you cannot get two predictions so different.

 

To be fair these charts have also swung around more than usual but nothing like the CFS comment. 

[mb018538]

22 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

CFS should be banned on here.

Unfortunately,  this chart is likely to be nearer the mark. 

I assume the AAM is not going to turn positive as expected.

They are hopeless - through June they showed a big return to positive AAM towards mid July...this never happened as this has shown. Ignore them. ECM charts have been spot on.