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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Good that we are seeing some more positive charts, with the improvements now beginning towards the end of the reliable time frame.

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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    2122D643-BD1B-45D8-A6F8-B86F7D2BD1FE.thumb.png.4d1193ed98e9cc4e15c36a41d72802c8.png

    OP slight outlier day 9/10, but looks decent enough.

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    Posted
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
    1 hour ago, MATT☀️ said:

    EC46 builds pressure in strongly for this weekend.. Next week we still have the influence of High Pressure, especially away from the far NW where they are a little more at risk from the Low Pressure over Iceland.. If anything pressure seems to be building again towards the following Weekend.. Again especially towards more SW/S areas.. Nothing nasty out towards week 2 being illustrated away from that far NW corner... Temps not to bad on the whole rather warm in the SE.. cooler towards the NW. 

    Edit... To be honest it's looking pretty good out to July 21st, High pressure looks to have a bit more influence at this stage than the previous run last Thursday.. Its not showing to be extensive ridging at this stage but it looks to be influencing areas away from that dreaded NW/N quite well.. The Exeter call of perhaps settled weather more likely to dominate looks pretty plausible at the moment. 

    How many times was that?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    1 hour ago, Northwest NI said:

    How many times was that?

    Sorry mate, I think I need to start calling it a NE/SW split in future. ?

    Regarding the latter frames of the 46 looks like a fair amount of settled Conditions in the South out to latter stages of July. Towards the end Pressure tends to slip back with conditions perhaps a bit more unsettled by this time. Precipitation totals are becoming quite high in the usual places and this trend continues into August... Suprise.. Suprise.. This is also the case across Iceland and scandy to, with Central Europe aslo looking quite mixed. Conditions in the USA currently and through much of the month are for some serious heat across large parts of the mid West stretching out to the Eastern Seaboard at times.. Some very hot conditions at times through much of July.. Absolutely huge Anticyclone of the Western coast of the states.. Ie the Pacific ridge in full effect.. Anyway this becomes very speculative at this range and is only intended as a current guide for possible trends... Alot can change and very often does.. I must admit though I find it a very entertaining Model... Kudos ECM.. ?

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.b28444487c07ad68ced8275d8316d3a6.pngimage.thumb.png.7bea0c7e247592f66bdc81e20601927b.png

    Sunday looks fine, without being exceptionally warm. Perhaps with it being the height of summer we could squeeze 23-24c out under these conditions. GFS has slightly warmer upper air, and is a degree or two higher for the same day.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.fb4a443cf7136c4165202eba4964793d.png

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    Beautiful ECM run today - warm and settled for all!

     

    Edited by mb018538
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Decent all round this morning (exception GEM), even the GFS looks decent even though its a cool outlier from the 14th-18th, with the mean 850s above 10C and quite few ensembles getting towards 15C seems like there's increasing chance we could start thinking about getting close to 30C again. ECM also brings in some warmer air through next week so lets see if we can keep this pattern. 

    GFS Ensembles showing the Op run as a cool outlier 14/18th

     

    gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n 0707.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    32 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Decent all round this morning (exception GEM), even the GFS looks decent even though its a cool outlier from the 14th-18th, with the mean 850s above 10C and quite few ensembles getting towards 15C seems like there's increasing chance we could start thinking about getting close to 30C again. ECM also brings in some warmer air through next week so lets see if we can keep this pattern. 

    GFS Ensembles showing the Op run as a cool outlier 14/18th

     

    gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n 0707.jpeg

    gem.thumb.jpg.18dbe9be8fc0fba4e08ccc6a285a5752.jpg

    GEM was an outlier this morning. Not to worry!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.0145343532463ecb60105e36dfe61d53.pngimage.thumb.png.85137ecb73a6a0f925d0741e423cc1d5.png

    The very nice ECM this morning wasn't a bad fit in the ensembles. Slightly warm at day 9, but not massively so. Hope this gets locked in to a good 5 days of decent weather.

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    1 hour ago, Tamara said:

    ?

    Thank you Tamara, appreciated.

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    EC clusters D7/D10 - while not completely smooth sailing (as last night's ECM op demonstrated), definitely glass half full from a summer point of view, and we're now sniffing out the possibility of a heatwave at the end of next week. I refer to this morning's and last night's clusters:

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020070612_168.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020070700_156.

    So by next Monday, it's still generally a settled picture, not a massively robust positive anomaly though so chances of a low-key brush with frontal areas in the NW - quite unlikely in the S and E though where fronts are unlikely to be more than a short period of cloud, given the likelihood of high pressure and a ridge.

    On to next Thursday:

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020070612_240.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020070700_228.

    A trough is trying to penetrate from the west, but on most clusters the ridge has become even stronger over the UK, and some clusters are now well positioned to turn the UK hot.

    A little caution is needed, particularly seeing cluster 2 from the 00Z set, as there has been a tendency for the long range ensembles to underestimate troughs to the NW - however, if we take this cluster as worst case scenario I still think we'd been likely to see a push of warmer S/SW air ahead of it, and indeed as we head into the D11-D15 this cluster is reduced to below 20% of the ensemble set.

    If the other ensembles have got even half a handle on the situation, we could see the UK on a warm trajectory for some time as northerly influences are shut out.

    It's been a strange pattern in recent times to have a below average first half of a month followed by an above average second half. There's enough signs in the ensembles this morning to suggest this oddity could strike again ?

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    6z continuing to advertise a settling down through the weekend and next week,obviously the more NW you head,the more exposed to the lows in the Atlantic...

     

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
    27 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    6z continuing to advertise a settling down through the weekend and next week,obviously the more NW you head,the more exposed to the lows in the Atlantic...

     

    Yes GFS 06z is a lovely run for points south – generally high pressure dominated after the next ropey couple of days then a rather pronounced NW/SE split in FI at the end of its run. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

    00z runs broadly supportive of a much needed settled interlude as we head towards the weekend and into next week.

    Perhaps beginning to warm up mid term as the north westerly begins to wane.

    The juncture when things begin to warm up is still 144 onwards so I'm still a little guarded at that timeframe personally.

    I've just had 10 days off work and it has been woeful,I couldn't have hand picked a worse time to be off,the good news is  I finish next Monday for another 10 days off work so I'm really hoping it's a case of 2nd time lucky and I can get out to do some fishing and walking,Im not even bothered about it being hot,just low 20s with a drop in winds (they have been really strong locally)would suffice...

    Edit is Feb1991 ok? He hasn't posted for a good while, I pmd him but got no reply..

    The 6Z mean looks dandy for some much better Summer conditions.. Long overdue and the current trends look better. 

    Hi NWS I think Feb is OK, he posted last week on the July temperatures contest thread.. Hurry up back mate, soon be Winter.. ? Hope your keeping well NWS.. ?

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    gens-0-1-144.png

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    gens-0-1-192.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Not to bad of a start to begin the 12z runs from the Icon .

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    550A8FA6-C6BE-4540-A268-05EB3570A9ED.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    UKMO looks okay . Especially further South .

    F4EFEEFA-9B89-4048-A925-92CC7A38492B.gif

    5BF345A5-7590-4450-B662-512F5023A1A3.gif

    45D5F6BF-BCEE-44CE-86FA-E6927BC1FE70.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    UKMO is a bit wobbly at 144 with a wave passing through....not too bad overall though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    D4868D18-CB27-4055-B24F-CF57C0D2E1CE.thumb.png.3439af793b21dd4024d08c29193eebce.png

    Look away now 😂😁

    Edited by Mapantz
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