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Model output discussion - into July 2020


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
Just now, DaveL said:

18 in the North Wales lowlands, 35 in Kent!

20C in North Norfolk too despite further inland areas being 26C

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

It’s strange that if you look back to the 18z GFS of yesterday, it’s much closer to today’s 12z ECM and UKMO runs than today’s GFS runs have been.

For whatever reason, GFS dropped the shallow ‘heat low’ over France on the 00z, then brought it back but way overdeveloped it in the 06z, then dropped it again on the 12z and has stuck with that for the latest 18z.

Aside form this feature, there’s hardly any difference between GFS and ECM Fri-Sat. Former just a little flatter in the eastern N Atlantic, which slightly further ushers in the cooler air from the west.

B919296B-C84E-41CB-B2D2-03835FF87E43.png

4704554C-09F1-413D-B02F-F860929B8854.png

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Right. Off to bed. Huge runs coming up in the morning. GFS always has to throw a curveball in there. It’s a nightmare model, I despise it!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

The one big difference there is between the GFS and the other models is the LP over Iceland is around 5mbs deeper in the GFS than any other model around 36-48hrs out.

May not seem a huge difference but that is just allowing the whole lot to flatten both a little faster and also pushes the heat that bit more SE, whilst other models are keeping the heat so close that even the smallest shift brings it back in, the 18z GFS along with the 12z run boots it well clear of our shores due to the whole complex being too far east.

My guess is the GFS is overdoing that low in Iceland, that therefore means as the developing LP swings around the Iceland's lows base it gets further east due to being more dominated by the stronger low to its north (whilst that is not so much the case on the other models out there as the central point is more in the middle so to speak) and pushes everything that bit further east compared to other models.

As said on the grand scheme of things not a drastic difference, but its got huge implications to the real world weather, especially for the SE of England and is the difference between 25c and 35c on Saturday.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Evening all.just catching up and what a stunning ECM run that was...

and i had to view it in the NH gif mode,that lobe of low pressure splits off the parent one over southern Greenland where as the gfs doesn't and sends the trough through the UK instead and i think this is one of the keys to prolonging the heat in our locale

anim_emx0.thumb.gif.7ce39df8c2acbf94d6f3507f44517434.gifgfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.6e1fb7688bd9c1664be68f39ef38b25a.png

also the gfs doesn't weigh up to what the latest cpc 500mb height anomaly's show for 6-10/8-14 days either with the heights sinking into central Europe where as the cpc doesn't and keeps the heights up to our NE near Scandinavia

610day_03.thumb.gif.f48e82123156f8311f473990815f0b36.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.9068eaa2e098d778b5a2e8b0cf074e71.gif

EPS/GEFS anomaly's show a similar outcome with regards to heights although the gefs slightly flatter and also the temps are lower on the gefs

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.4f88e3f0acbeaa2708c6bb70e3289f63.pngecmwf-ens_T850a_nhem_11.thumb.png.ce525c2aba32fa6c97bbfd0e85546bf5.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.2fea1acbb22c2c0d1c633c594ec234a7.pnggfs-ens_T850a_nhem_41.thumb.png.d0a7331aef3a7335087359aca19a9142.png

yes the gfs op is a slightly cool outlier within the pack but the ECM was a warm outlier too

still lots to be resolved next week as regards in prolonging the heat but end of this week looks about nailed on now with just slight fluctuations in temps i would of thought

a final note,if we do get a continental flow,look at these temps for Holland,it is plausible

eps_pluim_tt_06260.thumb.png.fa14eb1259ef06ae2477d610429fa61d.png

enjoy the rest of your evening

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Looking at the mean six day cpc charts, they aren’t too different to what we were looking at a month or so ago with the upper trough to our west and ridge to our east. But the big difference for us is a small retrograde of the upper pattern which brings us under that ridge. But we aren’t certain to stay that way so assumptions of a glorious August are a bit premature....

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Latest ec a little progressive with the upper trough end of the week (but plausible) .....that pushes the plume quickly se and we then await the modelling of the next pulse of the Atlantic trough ..... how far south will it dig and will it be overdone on the nwp come verification as this upcoming one seems to have been 

looks flatter at day 6 .......in theory the second half of the run will therefore be less hot than the previous one. 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Well that was a bit of a surprise - the ECM op now partially follows the GFS for Saturday with a deeper wave passing to the north!

Result is, the heat is strictly reserved for the south coast (east part) after Friday, though more of the low 30s type.

The UKMO, though, is having none of it, and keeps the very high temps for Saturday and also in the SE on Sunday.

What to believe? The ECM ensembles, and op, were adamant about a hot Saturday just 12 hours ago. What will they say this morning? And, being at just 96 hours, do the ensembles even matter now?

 

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Couple of things of note this morning, firstly the higher res models keep the cloud hanging around in the south through Wednesday & Thursday a little more than was expected 24hrs ago, subsequently temps aren't quite as high. Secondly If anything ECM is own its with the extent of warm uppers pushing through the UK on Friday it has 17C uppers reaching into the north east of Scotland, all the others ICON, GEM, GFS don't have any 15C uppers further north than the midlands so I'm struggling to see a max of more than an isolated 34/35C for Friday (arpege has a 34C) then through the weekend the models have converged a little closer (still with some uncertainty) ECM has moved away from the mega hot scenario and GFS from its overly progressive one although at best any remaining heat looks like being contained in the extreme south on Saturday and even less on Sunday before some sort of weak push back of hotter uppers looks likely Monday, Tuesday.  

I still think the weekend is a tough call, small difference of a 100miles one or another could mean a difference in maxes of 24C or 34C in parts of the south, likely to be another 24hrs before this is ironed out. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

ECM still looks hot for south eastern areas through the weekend to me. Can’t see that much has changed from yesterday.

ECM0-96_tqp6.GIF

ECM0-120_hbi4.GIF

 

Edited by MattStoke
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8 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

ECM has totally flipped this morning.

GFS only ever trumps ECM in a scenario you don't want.....if it was raging Atlantic being forecast ECM would be 100% right while GFS e forecasting a heatwave....

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
9 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

ECM has totally flipped this morning.

It still looks flippin good too me!

3E93B283-44A1-41FF-B91A-9223B02E8FE1.thumb.png.6872fb07b348610dd8f2830f1fbd61bd.png8FFF4E3A-DFE7-4F12-B022-DF237A86AD64.thumb.png.55f17723dfd5bbea415359c12b512858.pngD51B946B-48C4-4E61-9B11-B88B65ACC5AB.thumb.png.60dbe8db8bd3692ced40f8cd8aab6025.png5459036E-6EAA-424F-ADA0-755A83D707D8.thumb.png.9ff92f1f946bdf3b98aa21384080c428.png

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Just now, JON SNOW said:

It still looks flippin good too me!

3E93B283-44A1-41FF-B91A-9223B02E8FE1.thumb.png.6872fb07b348610dd8f2830f1fbd61bd.png8FFF4E3A-DFE7-4F12-B022-DF237A86AD64.thumb.png.55f17723dfd5bbea415359c12b512858.pngD51B946B-48C4-4E61-9B11-B88B65ACC5AB.thumb.png.60dbe8db8bd3692ced40f8cd8aab6025.png5459036E-6EAA-424F-ADA0-755A83D707D8.thumb.png.9ff92f1f946bdf3b98aa21384080c428.png

Longer term, it’s showing north westerlies. But it’s deep FI, so probably won’t happen.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

ECM still looks hot for south eastern areas through the weekend to me. 

ECM0-96_tqp6.GIF

ECM0-120_hbi4.GIF

 

Sunday shows 27/28c around Hampshire/Sussex on the ECM this morning. UKMO is best and keeps the heat in the SE into Monday.

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

Morning all

Latest UKV Friday 12:00 and 15:00

35C

A1EAD24A-80FC-4C61-9B72-ED1D9E6A3EED.thumb.png.72e4c8fc0afd66742d0a59567e1934ef.pngCD0545AC-ACC6-4579-9749-208C45DFC841.thumb.png.5fd25f6fc3cf06d82585333a4e71e17a.png

Saturday 12:00 and 15:00

35C

83A7DF19-1B8D-4877-996D-5AE0EC941073.thumb.png.88baca2acbb94d63977e9b122870959f.png83CFE744-034C-4E8C-9B90-F0CF61A106BD.thumb.png.d12c5b0c992d4d165947bf894057778b.png

Big change on Saturday with warmth/heat reduced further North - temperatures do seem rather low! Remember these are just predicted snapshots of certain times! 13:00 and 14:00 could show higher values. 
Met Office automated has a high of 23C in Manchester for example.

Saturday 12:00 snapshot precipitation/cloud cover - hence the low figures above further North.

4EBFBB89-3E1E-46B0-A3C5-D7A8A374CD32.thumb.png.43ce6f0a23c41879655b66273fda6d9a.png

As ever don’t take these charts too seriously at this range - will most certainly change between now and Friday. (Especially predicted precipitation!)

Heathrow still on for 30C at the very least everyday (35C+ Friday/Saturday) from Thursday to Monday you would think from looking at the UKMO run this morning.

Have a good day everyone!

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Looked at ECM rain charts - it's even developed the area of rain for Sunday that the GFS had yesterday!

So much cloud on this run it's amazing it finds any heat at all.

Thunderstorm lovers will enjoy Monday/Tuesday on this run though - loads of them! Start at this timeframe, run it through 48 hours:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/significant-weather/20200810-0600z.html

As with last night, important not just to jump at one run. There's clearly fine lines involved here, otherwise there wouldn't be so much inter-run variation at a short timeframe. I remember a couple of days ago thinking I had no confidence after Saturday - I still don't - that's just the way it is with models sometimes, they hit a problem they can only resolve very close the timeframe.

 

Edited by Man With Beard
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GFS is king, always first to pick up spoilers. The trend continues with settled spells followed by atlantic dross.

It's been an awful summer given all the wind and rain in my opinion - sums up 2020 perfectly.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Looked at ECM rain charts - it's even developed the area of rain for Sunday that the GFS had yesterday!

So much cloud on this run it's amazing it finds any heat at all.

Thunderstorm lovers will enjoy Monday/Tuesday on this run though - loads of them! Start at this timeframe, run it through 48 hours:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/significant-weather/20200810-0600z.html

 

Perplexing - on wxcharts I see isolated showers Sunday daytime, thunderstorms in Wales that night, then more for central England Monday (elsewhere in E&W dry) before they become more widespread Tue.

00z runs trying to return to a low AAM setup faster. Probably too fast, though I’d be amazed if the pattern didn’t shift by the final third of the month.

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Posted
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)

A collapse of potential, typified by the spoiler from GFS shows again that it is top model.

You can have your ECM/UKMO combo all you like but when GFS spots the crucial changes it shows its pedigree.

Outside of the south east it is back to average for Saturday although potentially very warm again first half of next week.

Weve gone from a high pressure 1020 - 1025mb in the perfect position and orientation just to the east and modelling a week of high 20s low 30s in much of central and south uk to blink and you miss it, again. The rest of August will be trash just like models are after 144 hours.

 

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Last thing on my mind this morning, its very rare (and I'll gladly be proved wrong) that once all the models start moving in the same direction  (and they have despite the uncertainty) for them to back-track significantly. I'd be very very surprised thinking about to find widespread 15 uppers across the UK on Sunday for instance. While there's undoubtedly a hot spell coming it certainly seems to being nibbled away both geographically and in intensity. 

I'm still annoyed that a shift towards GFS has happened this morning whereas all summer we've actually wanted all the other models to shift towards GFS and the high pressure its ben showing 6-10days out.... 

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