Model output discussion - into July 2020

[summer blizzard]

Euro this morning would likely produce an even poorer final week to July than has been observed. It moves the primary trough over Scandinavia and retracts the Azores high such that lows are incoming.

GFS has a weaker Atlantic however the blocking low over Scandinavia is in place ensuring nothing much better than what we have now. 

[Downpour]

37 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Pretty much the only place below average rainfall wise - the west was exceptionally wet in June.

That picture tells a thousand words. No wonder this place is a SE vs the rest battleground 90% of the time. 

[Mr Frost]

Morning all

You know it’s a boring and bog standard Summer when @Downpour and @wellington boot are wheeling out the words...useable and pleasant to describe recent weather!  (Both live in the warmest part of the UK)

Also @wellington boot if I was planning on moving South to seek a hot/sunny Summer every year...it certainly would not be to the South of England  - Southern France/Italy/Spain more likely. 

 

So here we are at mid Summer (meteorological) and let’s be honest...one to easily forget so far! July has been an absolute stinker up here - couple of days of high teens and sunshine but mostly mid teens and drizzle!  
Just had a browse though the regionals and moans thread - pretty much sums it all up for most of the UK and Ireland. (Plenty of our members down South moaning about the lack of Summer weather also I see)

Browsing the storm thread as well - tumble weed has been blowing through there since the end of June - incredibly boring month of weather so far.

In the short term some lovely weather about - North East/East of Scotland has had some decent weather in recent days with temperatures nudging 20/21C alongside plenty of sunshine.

Next forty eight hours looking good for many - temperature wise at the very least! (Cloud could be an issue as per the norm this Summer)

Tomorrow:

Friday midday: (Current run only goes up to this timeframe)

 

Unfortunately for myself and many others in the more North and West parts of the UK...little change anytime soon.  (You just have to laugh really)
 

UKMO 120 and 144:

 

This July is shaping up to be the worst in years IMBY - unless we see a big change in the current pattern. (Looks very unlikely from current output)

Bring on that glorious Winter snowfall already. 

All the best everyone and enjoy any warm/hot/sunny weather you get! I am staying positive and looking forward to it’s return here at some point this Summer! 

Cheers. 

Edited July 15, 2020 by Mr Frost

[johnholmes]

Wednesday 15 July Update for 500 mb anomaly charts

Some relatively minor changes for these two compared to several days ago, both have been a bit variable, but over now and the past week they continue to suggest a flow off the Atlantic, at times W’ly and at times, as gfs shows this morning from N of W. This morning gfs due to it building heights to some extent south of Iceland, not shown on ec. Both show a marked trough e of the uk, further e on gfs than ec, again in some form this has been there for some time.

Noaa(in my file) shows a different position and shape for the main trough, it has been much like this for most of the last 3 days or so, quite marked,last evening, centred around 10W off E Greenland and with a marked flow off the Atlantic beneath it. Over the last days this trough has sometimes extended into/just W of the uk, rather than its idea shown.

All told there is little if any indication of possible ridging close by the uk, certainly of anything that might give a spell of warmth most folks hope for. Really the next 6-10 days look much as we have had, more changeable than settled and this more pronounced the further NW one live, but even the SE will see some rain at times and temperatures below a bit below normal in these conditions.The noaa 8-14 does not suggest any marked change in the charts shown either.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the ECM 0z ensemble mean and other output so far today I think the words mixed bag are going to be used a lot during the next few weeks at least. There is clearly going to be some Azores ridging at times although this predominantly looks restricted to southern u k and it ebbs and flows as lower heights occasionally push in from the NW but mainly affect the north of the u k...so, erm, yes..it’s a mixed bag really!

 

Edited July 15, 2020 by JON SNOW

[wellington boot]

49 minutes ago, Downpour said:

That picture tells a thousand words. No wonder this place is a SE vs the rest battleground 90% of the time. 

Truly we live in a sun-drenched paradise down here.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Pretty much the only place below average rainfall wise - the west was exceptionally wet in June.

Derby had just above average rainfall, certainly a lot less then last year... 90% of "our" rainfall came via thunderstorms over a couple of days. Most of days in June were dry.

[Djdazzle]

Some consolation is that most of Europe is having a crap summer too - hate it when we have poor weather whilst they have heatwaves!

Come on August - summer wants you back this year. Most long rangers don’t hold out much hope, which actually gives me hope!

[StretfordEnd1996]

I'm not feeling those Summer vibes at the moment, in the more medium term anyway -  6z

There's a few bits and pieces to look forward to before this though in the much more shorter term - Friday afternoon looking pretty warm - more so in the South and East.. for me in the NW temperatures may not be that much above average 

[Guest]

Well the GFS 06Z Ops is an absolute stinker for the rest of the month, probably likely to an outlier, hopefully an outlier..... Mentally finding it a challenge given I've already had two holidays cancelled and it appears we're staring down the barrel of relying on August to deliver in what is expected to be an extremely active tropical season    

[wellington boot]

1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:

Morning all

You know it’s a boring and bog standard Summer when @Downpour and @wellington boot are wheeling out the words...useable and pleasant to describe recent weather!  (Both live in the warmest part of the UK)

Also @wellington boot if I was planning on moving South to seek a hot/sunny Summer every year...it certainly would not be to the South of England  - Southern France/Italy/Spain more likely. 

You imply "pleasant" is disappointing and I'm scraping the barrel as it has been so underwhelming. Unremarkable maybe, less warm than recent Julys, and there was a 7-10 day period recently which was meh, but frankly either side of that I can't really complain. i find blue skies and 20-23C to be genuinely pleasant/lovely/summery. 

And for the record, while i actually enjoy very hot weather, southern Spain is currently around 40C every day, and I can honestly say that beyond novelty value, i prefer current conditions in SE UK.

Anyhow, I do feel for those currently experiencing a washout summer. Fortunately the models show some decent weather for many parts over the next 4-5 days, and beyond that I look forward to further in-depth analysis from Tamara and John Holmes, whose input is wholly more interesting and valuable than hundreds of longer term NWP perturbations, all of which generally serve merely to illustrate and exemplify Butterfly Effect theory.

Edited July 15, 2020 by wellington boot

[MATTWOLVES 3]

13 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Some consolation is that most of Europe is having a crap summer too - hate it when we have poor weather whilst they have heatwaves!

Come on August - summer wants you back this year. Most long rangers don’t hold out much hope, which actually gives me hope!

I hope they are barking up the wrong tree also mate.. Just had a thorough view of the EC weeklies for August, and its not great.. The same old story of brief ridging into the South with perhaps more trough influence into the NW... And this spreading further south at times.. Temps remain average to rather warm in the far SE at times.. Precipitation amounts are much higher in W/NW areas also... But many places look to be getting some rain at times.. Iceland and Scandy also showing to be quite wet at times.. And a fair amount of Northern and Central Europe continue to look average at best.. The only places looking good are the usual suspects..Spain, Southern France.. Portugal... ITALY.. Greece etc... I hope this turns out to be wrong, because these charts certainly do not buck the trend of our recent run of poor Augusts. 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

34 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Looking at the ECM 0z ensemble mean and other output so far today I think the words mixed bag are going to be used a lot during the next few weeks at least. There is clearly going to be some Azores ridging at times although this predominantly looks restricted to southern u k and it ebbs and flows as lower heights occasionally push in from the NW but mainly affect the north of the u k...so, erm, yes..it’s a mixed bag really!

 

This summer so far is miles away from "mixed bag". None of the "potential summer" or "full of summer" charts you've cherry picked over the weeks have verified so give up cherry picking. If todays GFS is correct then It looks like this will be one of the coldest Julys on record with this persistent north westerly flow while sandwiched between high pressure to the west and low pressure over Scandinavia. But I wish you the very best of luck sniffing out any hint of summer in the ensembles in such vile synoptic pattern. Good luck 

[Guest]

Its really is no exaggeration to say the GFS Ops run is as naff as it can get. The whole ensembles pack awful-poor at best but the Ops run it just yuk.....Again further north this become even more pronounced. 

 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

10 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

This summer so far is miles away from "mixed bag". None of the "potential summer" or "full of summer" charts you've cherry picked over the weeks have verified so give up cherry picking. If todays GFS is correct then It looks like this will be one of the coldest Julys on record with this persistent north westerly flow while sandwiched between high pressure to the west and low pressure over Scandinavia. But I wish you the very best of luck sniffing out any hint of summer in the ensembles in such vile synoptic pattern. Good luck 

That's a bit unfair mate. I always say if there are only a couple of ensembles showing a favourable outcome, then it's pretty pointless posting them. But if there are a quarter or half the ens showing some potential... Then its worth highlighting them as sometimes they could be sniffing out a pattern change.. And tbh its no different than you viewing a poor  GFS operational and posting to say we are looking at 2 more weeks of Autumnal conditions. 

Edited July 15, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Djdazzle]

Well at least we will be able to look forward to a better GFS 12z as there is no way you can make a worse op run if you drew it yourself.

[Methuselah]

19 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

This summer so far is miles away from "mixed bag".

What poppycock!

Thunder? Yes. Heat? Yes. Rain? Yes. Cool days? Yes... Do I need continue? If that's nae a 'mixed bag' I don't what is!

[Downpour]

8 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Well at least we will be able to look forward to a better GFS 12z as there is no way you can make a worse op run if you drew it yourself.

Yes the GFS 6z is absolutely dire. That one genuinely deserves the billing. 

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

Some consolation is that most of Europe is having a crap summer too - hate it when we have poor weather whilst they have heatwaves!

Come on August - summer wants you back this year. Most long rangers don’t hold out much hope, which actually gives me hope!

Yes, a pretty mixed/poor summer here in Central Europe, so far. Had a few decent thunderstorms in May and June, at least but it has been quite boring in July with a fair amount of cloudy days (like today, where temperatures are barely scraping 22°C). Not as poor as in the UK, it’s currently cloudy and 18°C in my hometown in west London, which is 6°C below average, utterly pathetic.

 

[mb018538]

All the heat is out in the east as is per usual in most summers. Verkhoyansk had that amazing and record breaking heatwave which hit 38c in June....forecast to hit the mid to high twenties again through the weekend and next week. Makes you sick really. The lack of sunshine is depressing me now, and it doesn't usually. I just can't stand having so much cloud and leaden skies in July.

[Guest]

34 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

What poppycock!

Thunder? Yes. Heat? Yes. Rain? Yes. Cool days? Yes... Do I need continue? If that's nae a 'mixed bag' I don't what is!

I think your response is borderline poppycock to be honest. The very worst and best of summers contain all of the above is the proportion that defines the season. The south east can maybe call a mixed bag but not everywhere else, its been poor for many areas. Half way through summer we've only reached 25C four times, could sneak one Friday but realistically that looks like it for it for another 7-10days. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Yes Ive got the message now.. The conditions are poor.. But just a thought guys, wouldn't some of these persistent posts be better suited to the moans thread..

[Polar Maritime]

15 minutes ago, MATT said:

Yes Ive got the message now.. The conditions are poor.. But just a thought guys, wouldn't some of these persistent posts be better suited to the moans thread..

Absolutely yes, As above can we keep general chat to the Summer thread please. 

Thanks all.

[Evening thunder]

 

24 minutes ago, MATT said:

Yes Ive got the message now.. The conditions are poor.. But just a thought guys, wouldn't some of these persistent posts be better suited to the moans thread..

I agree there, and the Met Office bashing that broke out earlier because the outlook or models don't show what people want (if that's suited to any thread on this forum)
 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

10 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

 

I agree there, and the Met Office bashing that broke out earlier because the outlook or models don't show what people want (if that's suited to any thread on this forum)
 

I understand people's frustrations... I really do, but you can moan till the cows come home, and it still won't change the outcome.. For me there are worse things in life to worry about... For me... If we avoid a 2nd wave of Covid this Winter, then i will happy.. The weather can do what it wants to.. While I'm on the subject... Just noticed the met office app is showing unbroken sunshine symbol for early next week here in the Midlands... Stone the crows that would be most welcome..

I still think next week is looking pretty good on the whole, and certainly better than this week.. The 6z mean looks OK for much of next week. 

Edited July 15, 2020 by MATT☀️