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Hi everyone, Hope you're all well? ?  Thought I would share the GWV winter 2020/21 NAO Forecast with you all.  Thanks all and enjoy ?      

CFS going in strong already. This is an average over many runs Looks to me to be going for a December SSW. Means little on it's own at the moment obviously, but its noteworthy that per

I would just like to see more than 0.5cm of slush between December and March  C.S

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On 29/06/2020 at 20:05, Gavin P said:

Hi everyone,

Hope you're all well? ? 

Thought I would share the GWV winter 2020/21 NAO Forecast with you all. 

Thanks all and enjoy ?

 

 

 

Dodgy wifi connection - was it good news or bad Gavin??

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On 02/07/2020 at 14:09, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Dodgy wifi connection - was it good news or bad Gavin??

Middle of the road...kinda expected in one way, all to play for..

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1 hour ago, Dorsetbred said:

Middle of the road...kinda expected in one way, all to play for..

I think the signs are more positive for winter 2020/2021 at this early stage compared to last year.  However, need the E-QBO to get its act together and the warmer than average temperatures in the north eastern Pacific to do one!

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5 hours ago, Don said:

I think the signs are more positive for winter 2020/2021 at this early stage compared to last year.  However, need the E-QBO to get its act together and the warmer than average temperatures in the north eastern Pacific to do one!

Can't be any worse than last year here. No lying snow all winter and only a handful of frosty mornings. The worst winter I've ever lived through and the first time I've not felt snow under foot. Looking at nearly 10 years since we last had a six inch fall ?

2018 delivered -10c temps but snow was fairly light here. 

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The last two winters were on the poor side for snow, from a London and SE standpoint. I think winter 20/21 will at least see something similar to winter of 2017/18, where most places had a dumping or two of snow during the December to early March period. 

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3 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

The last two winters were on the poor side for snow, from a London and SE standpoint. I think winter 20/21 will at least see something similar to winter of 2017/18, where most places had a dumping or two of snow during the December to early March period. 

That would be great, especially compared to last winter!  However, if we do get one similar to 2017/18, it would be nice if the far south has more snow than that winter, when we largely missed out in December and totals during the beast from the east were not great.  In fact the 'mini' beast from the east in mid March delivered more snow for me than the main one!

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19 minutes ago, Don said:

That would be great, especially compared to last winter!  However, if we do get one similar to 2017/18, it would be nice if the far south has more snow than that winter, when we largely missed out in December and totals during the beast from the east were not great.  In fact the 'mini' beast from the east in mid March delivered more snow for me than the main one!

Yes, we had flurries during the mid March beast, but it didn’t settle in London. However it was still very cold. The late Feb one was very cold and snowy in London. December also gave us a light covering of snow. Not a bad winter overall.

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1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

Yes, we had flurries during the mid March beast, but it didn’t settle in London. However it was still very cold. The late Feb one was very cold and snowy in London. December also gave us a light covering of snow. Not a bad winter overall.

I narrowly missed out on that December snow, getting mainly cold rain and a little wet snow.  However, if the low had tracked 50-100 miles south, I think we really would have been in business.  Overall though, like you say, not a bad winter!

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I've said it recently in the MOD thread but I'll say it here too. As far as I'm concerned, this winter will be in the league of 09/10. Cold and snowy.

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5 hours ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Can't be any worse than last year here. No lying snow all winter and only a handful of frosty mornings. The worst winter I've ever lived through and the first time I've not felt snow under foot. Looking at nearly 10 years since we last had a six inch fall ?

2018 delivered -10c temps but snow was fairly light here. 

Oh, there have been many winters where I have not felt snow under foot!

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I've said it recently in the MOD thread but I'll say it here too. As far as I'm concerned, this winter will be in the league of 09/10. Cold and snowy.

Whilst I want to say bring it on, we should be mindful that it might not be a great time to have a winter as cold as that with the issues of Covid-19 still having an effect later this year.

Edited by Don
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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Don said:

And I say bring it on!!  However, we should be mindful that it might not be a great time to have a winter like that with the issues of Covid-19 still having an effect later this year.

CFS going in strong already. This is an average over many runs

glbz700MonInd6.thumb.gif.7d957e1aa0abaded0f1cfe3a69485248.gif

Looks to me to be going for a December SSW.

Means little on it's own at the moment obviously, but its noteworthy that perhaps 70% of its entire ensemble suite for that period is going for strong Arctic blocking.

Compare this to last year when we were seeing dark blues forecast over Greenland, even this early on. It bodes well we're seeing what we are seeing now IMO.

 

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted (edited)

 

Why would a specific 31 day period in the Earth's orbit and the SSTs of a speciifc area of the oceans on Earth during that period could have an affect on the meteological pressure patterns over the same specific area, as forementioned during a specific 90 day period in the Earth's orbit of which they are 183 days between  the two periods?

I have never bought this idea. 

 

Edited by Weather-history
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7 hours ago, CreweCold said:

CFS going in strong already. This is an average over many runs

glbz700MonInd6.thumb.gif.7d957e1aa0abaded0f1cfe3a69485248.gif

Looks to me to be going for a December SSW.

Means little on it's own at the moment obviously, but its noteworthy that perhaps 70% of its entire ensemble suite for that period is going for strong Arctic blocking.

Compare this to last year when we were seeing dark blues forecast over Greenland, even this early on. It bodes well we're seeing what we are seeing now IMO.

 

Still a massive signal for the NE Pacific slug - I think we need to see this go before we hit the jackpot as it is having an effect on the jet.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Why would a specific 31 day period in the Earth's orbit and the SSTs of a speciifc area of the oceans on Earth during that period could have an affect on the meteological pressure patterns over the same specific area, as forementioned during a specific 90 day period in the Earth's orbit of which they are 183 days between  the two periods?

I have never bought this idea. 

Sounds like hocus-pocus to me, Mr D... Didn't Gavin say that the 'prediction' only transpires on one-out-of-three occasions? If that's so, then, given there're only three options (+ive, -ive, neutral) one might as well just guess...??

And, really: how can anyone forecast an SSW a full five months ahead of time!:shok:

PS: And, why did the UK Met stop using this particular tool?

Edited by General Cluster
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13 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

 

And, really: how can anyone forecast an SSW a full five-months' ahead of time!:shok:

It can be forecast...doesn't mean it'll come to fruition though! ?

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Posted (edited)

I feel the need to point out that a -AO does not require a SSW and one in early December is statistically unlikely.

I will say that we will be in the top 10 spotless years again which is statistically favourable.

Edited by summer blizzard
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12 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I will say that we will be in the top 10 spotless years again which is statistically favourable.

Which is, I think, as a snow-lover myself, a crying shame:

The world (and the UK's climate) now is simply not the same as it was way back in the time of Charles Dickens. And, as we all know, science (and statistics especially) only apply so long as 'all other things remain equal'...?

But, because things are clearly not equal, I'll continue to ignore all inferences drawn from the number of sunspots observed during the Maunder (or any other) historical Solar Minimum.

We may of course see a cold, snowy winter next time... But, I'll wager that, if we do, it'll have nothing whatsoever to do with sunspots, and be will the result of entirely terrestrial forces??

 

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7 hours ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Still a massive signal for the NE Pacific slug - I think we need to see this go before we hit the jackpot as it is having an effect on the jet.

That’s exactly why those warmer than average temps in the north eastern Pacific need to do one ASAP.  However, there is little sign of that currently.

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7 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Sounds like hocus-pocus to me, Mr D... Didn't Gavin say that the 'prediction' only transpires on one-out-of-three occasions? If that's so, then, given there're only three options (+ive, -ive, neutral) one might as well just guess...??

And, really: how can anyone forecast an SSW a full five months ahead of time!:shok:

PS: And, why did the UK Met stop using this particular tool?

I haven't looked at video because internet playing up but I assume you are referring to the May SST anomaly. They are still using this as far as I know and it was part of the suite of forecasting tools they used for summer '18.

RMETS.ONLINELIBRARY.WILEY.COM

 

 

 

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19 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I've said it recently in the MOD thread but I'll say it here too. As far as I'm concerned, this winter will be in the league of 09/10. Cold and snowy.

Yes it’s definitely going to happen this year, but my main concern is how a cold winter could be more problematic with the Covid virus becoming more dangerous, if the winter is cold.

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