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Roger J Smith

July 2020 CET & EWP forecast contests

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Posted (edited)

(a) CET Temperature forecast contest -- averages and extremes

... all years since 1981 are shown for comparison ...

 

25.2 ... 29th, 1948, and 25th, 2019, warmest daily means

19.7 ... 2006 (warmest July)

19.5 ... 1983 (2nd warmest)

19.1 ... 2018 (3rd warmest)

18.8 ... 1783 (4th warmest)

18.7 ... 1852, 1976 (tied 5th warmest)

18.6 ... 1995 (7th warmest)

18.3 ... 2013 

18.2 ... 1989

18.0 ... 1994

17.7 ... 1999, 2014 

17.6 ... 2003

17.5 ... 2019

17.3 ... 1991 

17.2 ... 2001 

17.1 ... 2010 

16.9 ... 1984, 1990, 2005, 2016 ... average for 1989-2018 (16.85) (highest 30-year average) and 2001-2019

16.8 ... 2017 ... average for 1990-2019 (16.83 - see note below table) ... 1991-2019 (emerging 1991-2020 normal) 

16.7 ... 1997 ... average for 1981-2010

16.5 ... 1982, 1996 ... average for 1971-2000

16.2 ... 1985, 1992, 2008

16.1 ... 2009 ... average for 1961-1990, also for 1901-2000 and 1701-1800

16.0 ... 2002 ... average for all years 1659-2019

15.9 ... 1986, 1987, 2015 

15.8 ... 2004 ... average for 1801-1900

15.6 ... average for 1659-1700

15.5 ... 1981, 1998, 2000, 2012 and lowest 30-year average 1671-1700 (15.47)

15.2 ... 1993, 2007, 2011 mean and coldest since 1988 (14.7)

14.7 ... 1988 (tied with 1980 as coldest since 1965, and with four other years as tied 35th coldest)

14.0 ... 1965 CET (tied 11th coldest with 1674, 1685, 1713)

13.9 ... 1919 (10th coldest)

13.8 ... 1725, 1840, 1841 (tied 7th coldest)

13.7 ... 1888, 1922 (tied 5th coldest)

13.6 ... 1879 (4th coldest)

13.5 ... 1695,1802 (tied 2nd coldest)

13.4 ... 1816 (coldest July)

 8.7 ... 20th (1836) coldest daily mean

____________________________________________________________________________________________

Note: the most recent 30-year average dropped slightly because 2019 was slightly cooler than 1989, the year it replaced ... so the warmest 30-year average for July remains 1989 to 2018 which rounds off to 16.9; although marginally lower, 1990-2019 rounds off to 16.8.

Enter your July forecast by end of the day Tuesday 30th June without penalty,

or during the first three days of July with increasing time penalties.

=================================================================================

 

(b) Optional EWP contest

Predict the England and Wales mean precipitation in mm for July 2020. The contest uses the Hadley EWP version which runs from 1766 to 2020. Here are some averages and extremes as a guide:

 

182.6 __ wettest (1828)

140.7 __ wettest since 1981 (2009)

_93.9 __ highest 30-year average (1773-1802 and 1775-1804)

_70.9 __ average for 1990-2019

_67.3 __ average for 1981-2010

_57.4 __ lowest 30-year average (1971-2000)

_26.3 __ driest since 1981 (1999)

_15.8 __ driest since 1825 (1911)

__8.2 __ driest (1825) __ second driest was 1800 (9.1 mm)

_____________________________________________________________________________________

recent values: 2019 _ 71.7 ... 2018 _ 39.6 ... 2017 _ 105.7 ... 2016 _ 43.6 ... 2015 _ 92.1 mm

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _2014 _ 54.7 ... 2013 _ 54.0 ... 2012 _ 120.7 ... 2011 _ 65.2 ... 2010 _ 67.9 mm

 

Enter your EWP forecast with your CET forecast, same deadlines. 

Maximum score 10.0, late penalties 0.2 per day.

 

Good luck !!! 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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19.3°C and 80.2mm for me please. 

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I'm new here this month.. this looks interesting, does this run as a yearly thing or can I join now.. 16.7 and 74mm is my guess if so

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As I expect something of an indifferent month, synoptics wise, though with warm air generally, and a constant threat of Spanish plumes (but with nothing like the sunshine-levels of a 1976, 2006 or 2018) I'll go for 17.9C, please, Roger. And 65mm of rain, please.:oldgrin:

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5 hours ago, SummerShower said:

I'm new here this month.. this looks interesting, does this run as a yearly thing or can I join now.. 16.7 and 74mm is my guess if so

You are certainly welcome to join in, the contest does run on an annual basis (from last December to this November, to align with the four seasons). 

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17.2C And 92.4mm please-I think it will be a warmer month than last but still rather wet thanks to thunderstorms aka a couple of short heatwaves followed by several thundery breakdowns.

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17.7°C and 78.9mm please

Wet and warm; brief plume event mid month and wetter with some tropical influence later on.

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The misery of the 3rd millennium continues...  22C  :oldsad:  Last sub 14C July in 1922.  Last sub 15C July in 1988.  Last sub 15.5C July in 2011.

200mm from monsoons and Atlantic garbage!

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Posted (edited)

Probably quite a warm month with near normal amounts of rain, going 18.1 and 71.6 mm. 

Don't let me edit this ;)

(edited just the EWP +0.5 to keep it unique, later forecast hit my earlier value). 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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15.4C, 110mm.

Coolest July since 2012.

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Hi, 18.5 and 78mm for me please

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17.4 C & 69 mm please

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17c and 100mm thank you please

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for July I am going for 102 mm precipitation as for temperature I am going with 15.5 Celsius given lots of uncertainty in the long-range outlook thank you

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