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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards

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5 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I think the stuff in the channel is sea mist, as we have more of that here now, and it keeps showing up on radar as very light rain. 

Little things developing in France and on sat looks like some clumps of weather stuff in the channel, probably just rain, but you never know - it is Friday after all ?‍♂️

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1 hour ago, Zak M said:

What's going on in the North Sea?!

That thing developed out of nowhere.

Area 51 ?

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Wow, impressive light show now over the Yorkshire wolds! Bridlington/ Driffield area? Unfortunately photography not my strong point?

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Posted (edited)

Well, after leaving Peterborough feeling pig sick that I’d be missing out on action, over in Cheshire doesn’t feel too bad. i Was expecting a mid west type explosion as I left. Saw some incredible thunderheads through Leicestershire and Derbyshire! 

Not here in Cheshire for the storms however! I just feel relieved. I’m sorry that Cambs and Lincs didn’t fire for everyone. As I said, can have all the CAPE in the world, but a strong cap and a lack of trigger can hinder it all. 

Onto the next plume, which hopefullly I’ll be around for! 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 27 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sun 28 Jun 2020

ISSUED 22:01 UTC Fri 26 Jun 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Negatively-tilted upper trough will eventually merge with an upper low on Saturday over Britain and Ireland. On the forward side, the instability plume from the past couple of days will still linger close to NE Scotland and the Northern Isles, and may be subject to periodic episodes of elevated shower/thunderstorm activity migrating northwestwards. Most lightning will probably remain offshore, but there is a sufficient risk in Aberdeenshire, Orkney and Caithness to include at least a low-end SLGT here. Shetland is a little more questionable depending on how far north the instability plume may migrate, but there may be a risk here also of some sporadic lightning.

Elsewhere, numerous clusters and bands of rain/showers will rotate anticlockwise around a surface low centred over Connacht at 06z Saturday and lifting north to be close to the Outer Hebrides by 06z Sunday. Given sufficient cloud breaks and surface heating of a moist low-level airmass beneath cool mid-levels, this should yield 300-600 J/kg CAPE. As a result, some sporadic lightning will be possible almost anywhere, but primarily within the SLGTs that have been issued, including perhaps the English Channel region for a time first thing on Saturday morning (low confidence).

Shear will be relatively weak across northern England, Northern Ireland and southern Scotland (generally 15-20kts) and so showers here may be rather pulse-type in nature. Within the low centre over Ulster by Saturday afternoon, the slack pressure pattern will result in slow storm motion and hence a greater risk of some localised flooding.

Stronger shear (30-40kts) is likely over the NW Highlands and this may aid some organisation of convection here as it drifts WNW-wards towards the Hebrides. Given unidirectional winds through the profile, multicell clusters seem most likely, but an isolated supercell may also possible. If this were to occur, some marginally-severe hail is possible, but for now have refrained from introducing a SVR.

Shear will also increase significantly across Wales and central/southern England during the afternoon, although much of the stronger flow will be above the top of convection. In fact, convection across southern England could be rather stunted in height due to a pronounced mid-level dry intrusion. A favourable overlap between the higher CAPE environment to the north, and the stronger shear to the south - perhaps most likely the central / east Midlands into East Anglia - could result in some stronger, more organised cells. Some high-res modelling does suggest a corridor of enhanced convection may exist from Hampshire (mid-late morning) to East Anglia (midday-early afternoon) along the leading edge of the mid-level jet that will lift NE through the day, and this area may need monitoring for an isolated tornado.

Finally, additional showers and a few weak thunderstorms may evolve across southern Ireland during the afternoon, once the morning cloud/rain has lifted to the north. Here CAPE is lower than elsewhere, and shear probably relatively weak depending on the exact position of the mid-level jet, and so this area is treated as a low-end SLGT with lightning perhaps more isolated. However, cells that develop here will likely feed across the Irish Sea into Wales, and may eventually evolve into a more organised trough that swings eastwards across south Wales and SW England during the evening hours, aided by a PV strip aloft. This could perhaps also bring a relative uptick in lightning activity across S Wales and SW England (sporadically) for a time during the evening, but confidence is too low to issue a SLGT at this stage.

Showers / storms will slowly lose intensity through the late evening and night hours as both daytime heating subsides and mid-levels warm as the upper low continues to lift north through the night.

1411886795_largethumb(1).thumb.png.5a9182371972d545f6c9753ebecb4c0d.png

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As I say will sort through my vids tomorrow but this was structure of storm to my east IMG_20200626_214059.thumb.jpg.de9f161a334a0c98b564bfe1947021a5.jpgIMG_20200626_214058.thumb.jpg.8171ce0ab8ce6225a8cee4917f0e7cfe.jpg

And a very quick capture of a bolt from the storm to my west as lightning was beginning Screenshot_20200626_231430_com.huawei.himovie.overseas.thumb.jpg.be90ff82e1b8222762c35d52e3e60275.jpg

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50 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

I admire your dedication buddy, I was contemplating heading for the Humber area on my way back but the allure of a big-mac was too tempting. 

Looks like you may be rewarded with a little storm to the South now!

Haha I had a Big Mac earlier.

Onto the little storm. It was little in spatial size but omg was it intense. Moved over very quickly and lasted about 10 mins but it was crazy. Hit me just outside the village of Hummanby near Filey.

Hailstones clattering on the car, I would estimate grape size, really strong winds and bright flashes of lightning. I got some decent flashes and a couple of good CGs as it approached but once it was overhead there was no way I could be outside in it. Inside my car I had nil visibility so had to stay stopped until it passed. It moved away as quickly as it arrived but as I chased it to the coast it had left behind drifts of hail, icy floodwater and there were branches everywhere. 

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1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

Check out one of my buddies videos - hope its not protected

 

Will he upload the finished video from his camera?

I got motion sickness with him shaking ?

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23 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

OK here we go

before i start posting my pics,my partner just said to me that the storm we had here earlier whilst i was chasing that the hail was the size of a two pound coin and she didn't get any pics?

anyway on to my pics:-

this first pic is of a storm that where just starting to get going to my south,i was parked at Marr west of Doncaster

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the storms where moving pretty quick so we(me and my daughter) got on the A1 north to get ahead of them,this pic was a developing Cb to the NE courtesy of my daughter whilst we was traveling

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now things where getting interesting now that we parked in Driffield facing south,the first pic is of a Meso just to the east of a storm that has just started,there was some slight rotation on it,the second pic was at the back end of the storm and we could see more Cb's/inflow feeding the storm,we had to move further north

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so we headed NW towards Malton still tracking this storm and parked up on a nice tranquil country lane just SE of Malton,i was watching this closely as there was still rotation on this storm,the Cb's was rotating anti-clockwise it was unreal and finally on the second pic there is a white rope(you have to zoom in)

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further up the road my daughter said pull over and i said why!,she said look at that tower and i thought that she was on about a Cb shooting up but it was a building?,i had different towers in mind,there was another storm developing between York and Pocklington and boy this was photogenic,the base on this thing was rotating like a washing machine and i thought that it was going to give me another funnel but it didn't sadly,the last pic was at it's most spectacular and i have a vid on this and will post it when i get round to it

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some random pics while we where heading back home

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sunbeam

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we parked up near Market Weighton for a snack at McDonald's and here we saw some lovely Mammartus clouds to our north

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and i spotted a pileus cloud to my east then spread out 2 minutes later

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finally a sunset from Goole bridge on the move.

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the only Cg's we saw today(two of them) was when we parked up in a little village lane viewing a storm towards Bridlington but i will go through the video footage when i can

now i am going to trawl through this thread from early this afternoon

same again tomorrow?

take care

cheers.

 

Nice pics from Sledmere top, hell of a view up there, you can see why they built a tower up there!

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Went chasing today but can't really say i saw much. My target area was around the wash (any further north was hard to justify) - I arrived in peterborough around 4:30 just in time to catch some cells to my SE moving north. Driving to wisbech along the A47 i saw a few CG strikes, but most of the activity was way up in cloud tops somewhere. They weren't very potent actually - in fact, the storms ii chased a couple weeks ago were much better with far less instability. I put it down to a lack of shear and forcing in particular - maybe the upper mid levels were a little dry too idk. Bit disappointing, however i did get some footage and a nice cumulonimbus in the evening as i was heading back.  

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Seeing some distant lightning from the cell near Norwich. Perfecto!

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Blimey, very bright lightning and crack of thunder nr East Dereham. Some junior storms feeding in from the SE.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Gorky said:

This was the late evening storm as it passed over Filey. It was nice enough as it come up from Bridlington, but as it approached the coast, a real nice feeder band developed into it and it really ramped up. This shot is as it started to fall apart a bit but was one of the few CG's I saw from the South. I suspect more were coming down from the anvil behind the rain core. Copious amount of leaves on the roads between Muston and Filey. Suspect considerable hail and/or strong winds.

IMG_7795.jpg

That is just handsome - ??? 

Edited by Lu.
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3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Seeing some distant lightning from the cell near Norwich. Perfecto!

A bit more action and an hour earlier and I'd hop off to one of my favourite viewing spots!

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Nothing whatsoever here all day. It’s been blue cloudless skies all day with a small shower at about 7 this morning and that’s it. 

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7 minutes ago, Zak M said:
socialmedialogo.png
CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID Sat 27 Jun 2020 - Sun 28 Jun 2020

ISSUED 22:01 UTC Fri 26 Jun 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Negatively-tilted upper trough will eventually merge with an upper low on Saturday over Western Britain and Ireland. On the forward side, the instability plume will cover the whole UK, and the places that lost the heat and humidity today will see it return tomorrow from the South. Everywhere will be subjected to episodes of very severe elevated and surface based shower/thunderstorm activity migrating north and northwestwards. 

Numerous clusters of strong thunderstorms will rotate anticlockwise around the surface low over Western UK from early tomorrow morning. Given sufficient cloud breaks between thunderstorms and significant surface heating of a moist low-level airmass beneath cold mid-levels, this should yield 20,000 J/kg CAPE. As a result, frequent lightning will be possible anywhere, especially as every thunderstorm that occurs will be accompanied by extremely torrential rain, tennis-ball sized hail, gusty winds and non-damaging tornadoes. Although everywhere will be under the instability plume, lots and lots of convergence zones from tiny surface lows dotted about the UK (within the main Low) will ensure storms stay organised. Particularly so into tomorrow afternoon as the daytime heating encourages storms to form into Supercells and Multi-cell features.

Shear will be strong across the whole UK combined with a favourable overhead Jet, which will help with the above. Storms will last of varying length. Some lasting the whole day over parts of the UK and some huge localised floods are possible. But no homes will get flooded. Despite the strong shear and Jet placement, some storms will be slow moving.

Shear will further increase across the UK later into the afternoon and evening, and some Supersupercells will develop all over the place into the night. Lightning will be so frequent that everywhere can expect 1,000 flashes a minute. High-res modelling does suggest corridors of extremely enhanced convection in all areas that will make the already severe thunderstorms turn ever so wild!

Finally, the thundery monsters will slowly lose intensity as we head into Sunday.  Mid-levels will warm as the upper low continues to lift north and the heat will subside.

A HIGH level alert has been issued for tomorrow. We expect the Met Office to issue both amber and red warnings for all places. 

58F5D7D5-20E2-4338-AA56-30B0C06119BD.thumb.jpeg.25fe91ca6216a65c89d7bbd54d95c2df.jpeg

Definitely liking the sound of this. Brilliant news for all storm fans. :spiteful: :whistling:

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6 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Definitely liking the sound of this. Brilliant news for all storm fans. :spiteful: :whistling:

Presumably baseball hail, tornadoes and over 200 strikes a minute? :crazy:

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23 minutes ago, Gorky said:

This was the late evening storm as it passed over Filey. It was nice enough as it come up from Bridlington, but as it approached the coast, a real nice feeder band developed into it and it really ramped up. This shot is as it started to fall apart a bit but was one of the few CG's I saw from the South. I suspect more were coming down from the anvil behind the rain core. Copious amount of leaves on the roads between Muston and Filey. Suspect considerable hail and/or strong winds.

IMG_7795.jpg

That picture alone is worth the whole day

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9 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Definitely liking the sound of this. Brilliant news for all storm fans. :spiteful: :whistling:

So a Kent clipper then?

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