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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards


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Think I'm in for some serious storm action later on in my area. I've marked my location with an X. You may need to zoom in to see it clearly

stormmap_260620.thumb.jpg.03abf4514d281915b5efa2b44c7e6964.jpgRight in the middle of that severe 50%+ risk area

ukstormrisk.thumb.png.9d7e04b4773d8ccc844fc1a2320a83fd.pngReflected somewhat in this storm risk map for early evening

ukcapeli.thumb.png.ccb0ec893cc9802c200f711672e40c1a.pngRight in the highest CAPE area in the whole of the UK

This is going to get very exciting later on. As long as we don't get hit by a tornado or get that 5cm hail that is predicted

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This was the late evening storm as it passed over Filey. It was nice enough as it come up from Bridlington, but as it approached the coast, a real nice feeder band developed into it and it really ramp

My view of the Bude cell   Edit:excuse the washing

Very impressive lightning display here in Scotland in the early hours. I am just a amateur photographer but I am pleased with what I managed to capture. Here is a selection of all the best ones I got.

Posted Images

22 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Totally agree with your comments Paul.

Over the last few Decades, Plumes seem to have been associated with a Steering Flow, from SSW > NNE.

Whereas, back in the 60's/70's, the Steering Flow of these Thundery breakdowns seemed to be more S > N.

With this in mind, I started to "employ" what I call the Cherbourg Peninsula test.

I will Post up an image of the Cherbourg Peninsula/South Coast, to illustrate my point. 

image.thumb.png.bdd2bd8ee26aeb0e88941729fa432fb0.png

If electrical activity initiates East of the Peninsula, the areas primarily affected will be East Sussex/East Kent, with a Steering Flow from SSW > NNE . This is basically what happened again, around Dawn this Morning.

The infamous "Kent Clipper", more or less bared its teeth again, and the Capital remained unaffected.

This "Cherbourg Peninsula Test" has worked so many times, over the last few Years.

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

Have noticed this too. Having lived on the South Coast all my life and remember the late 90s and 00s huge overnight thunderstorms from France, I can only dream of this now.

Electrical activity from France appears to always hug the Northern Coast, steering NNE/NE. The precipitation however continues on its northern route, leaving the cell behind or fizzling out. 

As part of my degree, I did look into this and found no obvious correlation. Sea temperatures were my first though, but nothing found. Second was the general setups of heat plumes or Spanish plumes compared to the 80s- and 90s, looking at CAPE and velocity as well and again, no huge difference was noted. 

One area that was interesting was Northern Blocking having an influence, as in previous summers, pressure has been much higher over Scandinavia and subtling changing plume events across Southern England. I had more luck comparing them but even then, didn't find a correlation.

I think the Met and others could take a look at this, to help shed some light on it.

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1 minute ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Think I'm in for some serious storm action later on in my area. I've marked my location with an X. You may need to zoom in to see it clearly

stormmap_260620.thumb.jpg.03abf4514d281915b5efa2b44c7e6964.jpgRight in the middle of that severe 50%+ risk area

ukstormrisk.thumb.png.9d7e04b4773d8ccc844fc1a2320a83fd.pngReflected somewhat in this storm risk map for early evening

ukcapeli.thumb.png.ccb0ec893cc9802c200f711672e40c1a.pngRight in the highest CAPE area in the whole of the UK

This is going to get very exciting later on. As long as we don't get hit by a tornado or get that 5cm hail that is predicted

That’s if the trigger fires sufficiently. Never take anything too much for granted. As Paul S has said there’s been days in Kansas with 6000+j/kg but nothing fired at all! Some places will probably hit the jackpot, but there will always be people miss out. 

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It is always a bad sign for the Midlands, CS England is Western Scotland has storms previous day, it means the storms will skip across during 24 hour period of following day that unstable airmass ends up over the North sea.

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27 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

Urgh... Once again Stokes encircling ring of hills was in full effect and deflected all the good stuff around us ?  Least the air feels ALOT cooler now.  Can actually see the thermometer slowly going down if I stare at it for long enough. 

 

*For anyone wondering, this is what I mean about Stokes 'Ring of Hills'.

Stokeshillshield.png.b2dca249fe78c0b1046bdd13b03627dd.png

There's only 2 directions that lowlevel storms can generally make it in from, the River Trent Valley/Floodplain to the SSE and a small gap to the NW (unfortunately covered by the letters 'ke') Anything coming from any other direction hits the hills and either wears itself out or gets pushed around us ? 

 

But... but... but... do you not see the constant storms that are going on around you almost every day? Just an hour in any direction and you’ll get a storm. You could have witnessed about 10 decent storms already.

Don't want to belittle your situation but down here we are literally 2/ 3 hours drive from the nearest storm (if lucky) and even then it’s racing away in the other direction.

People in the north who complain about the Synoptics are just not looking at it properly, you’re living in a dreamland for storms at the moment. Get on and enjoy it!

meanwhile, in the dustbowl that is Surrey, hot and clear. Maybe more of a chance today than we are being given credit for, based on last night’s latest complete bust.

Would have chased to the east but after hours sitting near Portsmouth I literally had no energy.

Come on, we need this one today. Just clear out this stuffy humidity

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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14 minutes ago, Dean E said:

Have noticed this too. Having lived on the South Coast all my life and remember the late 90s and 00s huge overnight thunderstorms from France, I can only dream of this now.

Electrical activity from France appears to always hug the Northern Coast, steering NNE/NE. The precipitation however continues on its northern route, leaving the cell behind or fizzling out. 

As part of my degree, I did look into this and found no obvious correlation. Sea temperatures were my first though, but nothing found. Second was the general setups of heat plumes or Spanish plumes compared to the 80s- and 90s, looking at CAPE and velocity as well and again, no huge difference was noted. 

One area that was interesting was Northern Blocking having an influence, as in previous summers, pressure has been much higher over Scandinavia and subtling changing plume events across Southern England. I had more luck comparing them but even then, didn't find a correlation.

I think the Met and others could take a look at this, to help shed some light on it.

Hmm now that IS Interesting, never really thought about the barometric pressure these things were moving into etc. A bit like the rule of thumb for a North Easterly flow in the winter across the North Sea and our snow machine, in the 1987 and 1991 and 2010 winters pressure was always a certain level for deep convection but stray higher or lower then things never seemed to click. I wonder if we just got lucky with everything setting up perfect for the Plume, the pressure and engaging troughs in those days and nothing more.

Anyone doing a Met Degree this would be an interesting dissitation for you. If I ever lived again and went to OU Met school I would be doing an interesting one on the increase of Smooth Channel Lightning around or just before Violent EF3 Tornado Occurences

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1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

But... but... but... do you not see the constant storms that are going on around you almost every day? Just an hour in any direction and you’ll get a storm. You could have witnessed about 10 decent storms already.

Don't want to belittle your situation but down here we are literally 2/ 3 hours drive from the nearest storm (if lucky) and even then it’s racing away in the other direction.

People in the north who complain about the Synoptics are just not looking at it properly, you’re living in a dreamland for storms at the moment. Get on and enjoy it!

meanwhile, in the dustbowl that is Surrey, hot and clear. Maybe more of a chance today than we are being given credit for, based on last night’s latest complete bust.

Would have chased to the east but after hours sitting near Portsmouth I literally had no energy.

Come on, we need this one today. Just clear out this stuffy humidity

Not everyone can afford to have driving lessons.... let alone afford a car....

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3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Hmm now that IS Interesting, never really thought about the barometric pressure these things were moving into etc. A bit like the rule of thumb for a North Easterly flow in the winter across the North Sea and our snow machine, in the 1987 and 1991 and 2010 winters pressure was always a certain level for deep convection but stray higher or lower then things never seemed to click. I wonder if we just got lucky with everything setting up perfect for the Plume, the pressure and engaging troughs in those days and nothing more.

Anyone doing a Met Degree this would be an interesting dissitation for you. If I ever lived again and went to OU Met school I would be doing an interesting one on the increase of Smooth Channel Lightning around or just before Violent EF3 Tornado Occurences

Yeah could still be a driving force for why imports struggle to move across the channel. Last documented time I can recall with a MCS moving across the Channel successfully locally was May 2011, hours of storm activity that reminded me of the 90s/00s. Recent events here have developed just offshore or over the South Downs.

I did think of doing it as my dissertation, however I decided to concentrate on the changing climate in Southern England during the winter months! But yeah, anyone currently doing Meteorology or Geography, I would suggest this to be a good topic!

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24 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Think I'm in for some serious storm action later on in my area. I've marked my location with an X. You may need to zoom in to see it clearly

stormmap_260620.thumb.jpg.03abf4514d281915b5efa2b44c7e6964.jpgRight in the middle of that severe 50%+ risk area

ukstormrisk.thumb.png.9d7e04b4773d8ccc844fc1a2320a83fd.pngReflected somewhat in this storm risk map for early evening

ukcapeli.thumb.png.ccb0ec893cc9802c200f711672e40c1a.pngRight in the highest CAPE area in the whole of the UK

This is going to get very exciting later on. As long as we don't get hit by a tornado or get that 5cm hail that is predicted

Certainly some good ingredients in place, but be weary - there are two definitions for exciting - definition 1 - an exciting day to be weather watching / definition 2 - exciting to be expecting a storm later. Definition 1 is definitely the rule for today!! Do not expect a storm later or you will be likely disappointed. Best option - radar watch and get in your car!! Expect things to be quiet until 2-3pm, maybe later... until isolated initiation takes off. Best chance of a storm is probably this evening if any cells grow big enough. 

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1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

For the Moderate Risk area this Image should make you smile away, a lovely area for solar heating and no trouble with cloudy skies putting a dampener on anything.

The Stage is Set as they say

2020-06-26T09_00_00Z-2.png

So you think the areas that do have that solar heating this morning (east wales, west midlands, central england, southern england) will have storms this afternoon?

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1 minute ago, StormChaseUK said:

So you think the areas that do have that solar heating this morning (east wales, west midlands, central england, southern england) will have storms this afternoon?

They will be the Initiation zones certainly, and anything to the north where the current cloud band is will get the maturing storms. Would have a wry smile on my face if I was in the cloudy part atm knowing what could be coming.

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9 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

Not everyone can afford to have driving lessons.... let alone afford a car....

I was reminding myself this while I wrote the rant and it’s a fair point but you can’t keep complaining it’s not a direct hit when the forecasts consistently favour your general area. I know we all get imby about it ?

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2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

They will be the Initiation zones certainly, and anything to the north where the current cloud band is will get the maturing storms. Would have a wry smile on my face if I was in the cloudy part atm knowing what could be coming.

I am in the cloudy zone and I therefore have a wry smile on my face. But, I am still thinking a bit north of here. I can see my area probably being the initiation zone. My plan is to drive to somewhere around North Lincolnshire and close to the A1 for a fast route north from there.

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4 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I was reminding myself this while I wrote the rant and it’s a fair point but you can’t keep complaining it’s not a direct hit when the forecasts consistently favour your general area. I know we all get imby about it ?

Not sure about all of Stoke as it is a fair sized city but I was on the western side of Stoke on the evening of the 16th June and there was a very decent storm with lots of lightning, thunder and torrential rain.

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1 minute ago, Supacell said:

I am in the cloudy zone and I therefore have a wry smile on my face. But, I am still thinking a bit north of here. I can see my area probably being the initiation zone. My plan is to drive to somewhere around North Lincolnshire and close to the A1 for a fast route north from there.

Yh good plan, its not a written rule where convection will fire but most models on the 06z suite are showing a general area of Birmingham around to Cheshire and swinging back around to Western Norfolk and moving north from there, could be derbyshire though if the convergence sets up further north and initiation lasts until later which would probably be better anyway. A Solid Supercell using up all that energy over 10 small storms would always be a winner

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Really surprised how quickly the sky has cleared after the small storm we had this morning. It’s all about radar watching now. Wouldn’t be surprised to see another storm later. 

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3 minutes ago, Hathers said:

Really surprised how quickly the sky has cleared after the small storm we had this morning. It’s all about radar watching now. Wouldn’t be surprised to see another storm later. 

My Tescos delivery man just said the same thing! 

But its lovey again now. Suspect though we will build the storms for further north later again. 

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4 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Not sure about all of Stoke as it is a fair sized city but I was on the western side of Stoke on the evening of the 16th June and there was a very decent storm with lots of lightning, thunder and torrential rain.

Spot on. I know they’ve had some decent stuff recently. Perhaps people need to try different windows? ? 

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8 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

They will be the Initiation zones certainly, and anything to the north where the current cloud band is will get the maturing storms. Would have a wry smile on my face if I was in the cloudy part atm knowing what could be coming.

You've cheered me up in West yorkshire?

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