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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards


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Looking at Chris’ latest forecast on the beeb and their radar is showing some thunderstorms moving directly northwards across the SE at around 3am on Friday morning, some imported elevated storms potentially?? I don’t tend to trust BBC at all lately but just wondering ?

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This was the late evening storm as it passed over Filey. It was nice enough as it come up from Bridlington, but as it approached the coast, a real nice feeder band developed into it and it really ramp

My view of the Bude cell   Edit:excuse the washing

Very impressive lightning display here in Scotland in the early hours. I am just a amateur photographer but I am pleased with what I managed to capture. Here is a selection of all the best ones I got.

Posted Images

1 minute ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Looking at Chris’ latest forecast on the beeb and their radar is showing some thunderstorms moving directly northwards across the SE at around 3am on Friday morning, some imported elevated storms potentially?? I don’t tend to trust BBC at all lately but just wondering ?

kent clipper then 

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1 hour ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Ohh that explains it then, i was unaware of that, thanks for clarifying lol ?

Haha, I only learned that the other month myself! The 'future radar' thingy on M/O's website is also based on the UKV data, although it's updated far slower (4 times a day, about 3 hours behind the UKV's runs)

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37 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

AROME 12z is not a good look for anywhere on the south coast besides Devon. AROME is hinting at MCS development but tracking straight up the Irish Sea.

And the EURO4 joins in ?

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5 minutes ago, Zak M said:

And the EURO4 joins in ?

Looks like West Wales will see a cracking lightning show tomorrow night. UKV very much on its own.

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4 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

UKV very much on its own.

I disagree with that. ECM/GFS/HIRLAM all show something similar. What is very clear in these situations, The majority of precip charts will never be able to accurately render the destabilisation, i've seen it time and time again.

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51 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

I'm guessing Lincolnshire is in for a good chance this week? with the better chance up North as storms develop

Often a hotspot in situations like this. I'd be cautiously optimistic if I were you.

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10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I disagree with that. ECM/GFS/HIRLAM all show something similar. What is very clear in these situations, The majority of precip charts will never be able to accurately render the destabilisation, i've seen it time and time again.

My bad maybe I should've been clearer. Imo the UKV is on its own in comparison to the other hi-res models. I actually hardly pay any interest to the GFS & ECM when thunderstorms are forecast but maybe that is just me. That saying I do agree with your final statement.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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28 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I disagree with that. ECM/GFS/HIRLAM all show something similar. What is very clear in these situations, The majority of precip charts will never be able to accurately render the destabilisation, i've seen it time and time again.

Preparing ourselves for the bust call in 24 hours time when nothing is showing!! 

To me it’s a classic set up where storms initiate just offshore and rapidly develop as they hit the South coast.

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Saturday morning looks interesting for some post-frontal convection, but guess what develops in the afternoon and kills everything! I’ll give you a clue; it begins with S and ends in E. Thank God I’m going to be moving to Prescot or St. Helens in a few months.

Edited by Chris.R
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My earlier thoughts have not changed, SW England to Dorset, Wales and North West England to SW Scotland with the first batch, then Surface based storms initiating M4 for East Midlands and NE England

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I’m gonna jinx the whole thing, but we NORMALLY do pretty well in these scenarios. Don’t quote me on this in 36 hours time. Thanks.

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Have to say, Friday morning looking good round here now. Just a shame will be over so  quickly.

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More AcCas popping up here now with some towers in the distance. Not sure if they’re visible in the middle photo.

image.thumb.jpeg.035240580eedf409b84f43535df59e20.jpeg

image.thumb.jpeg.8bf5e52075051228567dee77364441ff.jpeg

image.thumb.jpeg.de397fe0bcc7943c96dc29addcd1c0e9.jpeg

 

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Having just looked at the Met Office's video, I am preparing to live up to my signature...

I am the gap between storms...

Edited by StormLoser
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3 minutes ago, Convective said:

Somewhere is going to get a storm tonight. If not these parts, north of here should get something. Things destabilising quickly now. These photos taken over the last 15 minutes:

image.thumb.jpeg.98f3fcc02eed23284ba9d4d3c9436936.jpeg

image.thumb.jpeg.34e6dafc2463b2927d5af9c1a6f43d25.jpeg

image.thumb.jpeg.35ec9c1c200cdc650980ea79f8200549.jpeg

cracking photos mate, love the cloudscapes

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5 minutes ago, Convective said:

Somewhere is going to get a storm tonight. If not these parts, north of here should get something. Things destabilising quickly now. These photos taken over the last 15 minutes:

image.thumb.jpeg.98f3fcc02eed23284ba9d4d3c9436936.jpeg

image.thumb.jpeg.34e6dafc2463b2927d5af9c1a6f43d25.jpeg

image.thumb.jpeg.35ec9c1c200cdc650980ea79f8200549.jpeg

That's the plan ?

Anywhere from Cumbria / IoM north into southern then central Scotland.

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24 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Think it's safe to say the UKV isn't budging 

temp.gif

Loving the way these models nowadays factor in the Cone of Silence, very last frame kills it stone dead to my South - Looks legit haha

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11 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

Having just looked at the Met Office's video, I am preparing to live up to my signature...

I am the gap between storms...

Don’t take that so literally at this early stage ?. Not seeing a gap anywhere across the SE though? Looks like a pretty big area of storms moving initially eastwards then northwards across the SE and the London area

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